Why?

[sam_gordon]

OK, I'm sorry, I don't get it. Why is corona virus so scary? Scary enough to close schools, Disney, various businesses, sporting events, travel bans, "social distancing", etc.

I get it. The mortality rate *IF* you get it is much higher than the flu. BUT, most of the deaths are those who have underlying medical issues. Shouldn't they be used to taking extra precautions at this time of year so they don't get the flu anyway? Sure, there's a vaccine for the flu, but that doesn't mean you won't catch it. The vaccine isn't always for the correct strain.

CDC estimates 36M - 55M in the US alone will come down with the flu, resulting in 22k-55k deaths. Source
There have been 146K corona cases WORLDWIDE resulting in 5K deaths. Source
The flu kills 291k-646K worldwide each year. Source
Over 150K died world wide from H1N1 in 2009. Source

So the flu regularly KILLS more people every year than the number of corona virus cases.
H1N1 killed more people than there are corona cases. Yes, obviously the number of corona cases will increase. But why was there no panic in 2009?
Is this being blown out of proportion?

I'm sure I'll get blasted for asking the question

 

[mjkacmom]

The corona virus is 10 times more deadly than the flu, more contagious, there is no vaccine and no antivirals. Don’t look at the number of flu deaths, look at the percentage who die.

 

[Christine]

OK, I'm sorry, I don't get it. Why is corona virus so scary? Scary enough to close schools, Disney, various businesses, sporting events, travel bans, "social distancing", etc.

I get it. The mortality rate *IF* you get it is much higher than the flu. BUT, most of the deaths are those who have underlying medical issues. Shouldn't they be used to taking extra precautions at this time of year so they don't get the flu anyway? Sure, there's a vaccine for the flu, but that doesn't mean you won't catch it. The vaccine isn't always for the correct strain.

CDC estimates 36M - 55M in the US alone will come down with the flu, resulting in 22k-55k deaths. Source
There have been 146K corona cases WORLDWIDE resulting in 5K deaths. Source
The flu kills 291k-646K worldwide each year. Source
Over 150K died world wide from H1N1 in 2009. Source

So the flu regularly KILLS more people every year than the number of corona virus cases.
H1N1 killed more people than there are corona cases. Yes, obviously the number of corona cases will increase. But why was there no panic in 2009?
Is this being blown out of proportion?

I'm sure I'll get blasted for asking the question

Right now, the focus is not on saving lives or keeping people from catching it. Catching it now is a given. The thrust, currently is (or should be) ensuring that the population doesn't sort of come down with it all at one time. This will overwhelm the medical infrastructure and cause us to get to a point (like Italy) where will we have to choose who gets care and who doesn't by whose life is more valuable.

If we can do a lot of social distancings through closures, we can sort of meter out the illness rate. That's all we can do now: ensure the doctors and hospitals do not get overwhelmed. Listen to a few things said by Dr. Fauci.

 

[sam_gordon]

Don’t look at the number of flu deaths, look at the percentage who die.

I think we're looking at the wrong percentage though. Compare the number who die to total population, NOT to the number who catch it. Yes, corona has a higher mortality for those who catch it, but the number who catch it is much lower.

And how is it "more contagious"?

 

[sam_gordon]

Catching it now is a given.

Really? Out of the 1.4 BILLION people in China, only 80K have caught it. But you believe everyone will catch it?

I'm not saying don't take precautions. I just think the precautions being taken (at least some of them) are extreme.

 

[wgeo]

OK, I'm sorry, I don't get it. Why is corona virus so scary? Scary enough to close schools, Disney, various businesses, sporting events, travel bans, "social distancing", etc.

I get it. The mortality rate *IF* you get it is much higher than the flu. BUT, most of the deaths are those who have underlying medical issues. Shouldn't they be used to taking extra precautions at this time of year so they don't get the flu anyway? Sure, there's a vaccine for the flu, but that doesn't mean you won't catch it. The vaccine isn't always for the correct strain.

CDC estimates 36M - 55M in the US alone will come down with the flu, resulting in 22k-55k deaths. Source
There have been 146K corona cases WORLDWIDE resulting in 5K deaths. Source
The flu kills 291k-646K worldwide each year. Source
Over 150K died world wide from H1N1 in 2009. Source

So the flu regularly KILLS more people every year than the number of corona virus cases.
H1N1 killed more people than there are corona cases. Yes, obviously the number of corona cases will increase. But why was there no panic in 2009?
Is this being blown out of proportion?

I'm sure I'll get blasted for asking the question

I don't think you should get blasted at all. I think it is a legit question. I think that if we (collective we as a country) could have been better informed earlier on these answers would be more readily available.

The problem is in the extrapolation. IF this goes unchecked and IF we don't take preventive measures it could affect more people. Estimates from the CDC said the worse case scenario 214 million americans eventually get it and 1.7 million die. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/...4-million-americans-infected-17-million-dead/

Clearly those numbers are not happening - yet. It takes time to ramp up and spread and that is what people are trying to stop. It is very hard to look at the low initial numbers and see what it can/may become in 3 weeks time but the math doesn't lie.

An article that I like that is quite science/nerdy is https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/ Very fact based.

 

[Christine]

I think we're looking at the wrong percentage though. Compare the number who die to total population, NOT to the number who catch it. Yes, corona has a higher mortality for those who catch it, but the number who catch it is much lower.

And how is it "more contagious"?

They are only now just studying its contagion factor.

With the flu, you incubate for 3-5 dates with about 24 hours of the incubation phase being contagious. Once exhibiting symptoms of the flu, you shed for about 8-10 days.

With this virus, incubation is up to 14 days. You don't know you have it. It can be passed during that time although they are not sure at what point you can start passing before symptoms. After that, a person is found to be able to shed the virus for up to 37 days.

It is a much heartier virus than influzena.

 

[Christine]

Really? Out of the 1.4 BILLION people in China, only 80K have caught it. But you believe everyone will catch it?

I'm not saying don't take precautions. I just think the precautions being taken (at least some of them) are extreme.

No that's not what I meant. I don't think every person in the U.S. will catch it. I believe that it's out in the community and given an interaction with a person who has it, you will catch it. If you don't have that interaction, you won't catch it.

 

[Disneylover99]

Really? Out of the 1.4 BILLION people in China, only 80K have caught it. But you believe everyone will catch it?

I'm not saying don't take precautions. I just think the precautions being taken (at least some of them) are extreme.

Many people will get it and not even know, but they’ll pass it to others. Many people will have mild symptoms and never be tested. Many people will just deal with it at home and never report it. I’m fairly certain there are way more people then 80K in China who have caught it.

 

[wgeo]

Many people will get it and not even know, but they’ll pass it to others. Many people will have mild symptoms and never be tested. Many people will just deal with it at home and never report it. I’m fairly certain there are way more people then 80K in China who have caught it.

It is worth noting that China instituted some very extreme policies themselves to finally get a handle on it to stop spreading it. It's not like they stopped at 80K by using average precautionary measures.

 

[Jen81NYC]

OK, I'm sorry, I don't get it. Why is corona virus so scary? Scary enough to close schools, Disney, various businesses, sporting events, travel bans, "social distancing", etc.

I get it. The mortality rate *IF* you get it is much higher than the flu. BUT, most of the deaths are those who have underlying medical issues. Shouldn't they be used to taking extra precautions at this time of year so they don't get the flu anyway? Sure, there's a vaccine for the flu, but that doesn't mean you won't catch it. The vaccine isn't always for the correct strain.

CDC estimates 36M - 55M in the US alone will come down with the flu, resulting in 22k-55k deaths. Source
There have been 146K corona cases WORLDWIDE resulting in 5K deaths. Source
The flu kills 291k-646K worldwide each year. Source
Over 150K died world wide from H1N1 in 2009. Source

So the flu regularly KILLS more people every year than the number of corona virus cases.
H1N1 killed more people than there are corona cases. Yes, obviously the number of corona cases will increase. But why was there no panic in 2009?
Is this being blown out of proportion?

I'm sure I'll get blasted for asking the question

You won’t get blasted for asking this question but you have to show some willingness to digest and listen to people who are trying to explain what the issue is, otherwise you’re just stubbornly clinging to your ignorance. Coronavirus is serious because it’s easily spread, has a mortality rate 10-20 times higher than flu, and for older people the mortality rate is 4-15%. In addition, if everyone gets it at once, it will exceed our hospitals’ capacity to treat cases that would ordinarily recover with some hospitalization and that would cause a serious breakdown that both increases coronavirus and non-coronavirus (but other illness) mortality rate. This has been explained over and over again. It’s why Italy is in lockdown—their healthcare system reached its max and now they’re in a position where they have to make decisions on who should be treated based on who is most likely to survive.

 

[DisneyOma]

So far in this outbreak, the WHO has reported that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has primarily been between people who have had contact with each other, such as family members. Also, transmission early in a case of COVID-19 (that is, 24 to 48 hours prior to noticeable symptom onset) does not seem to be common. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 tends to be seen later, when symptoms are apparent, according to the WHO.

From https://arstechnica.com/science/202...e-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/2/#h4

That stated, the above website does not give a link to where it found that info. The author does have a PhD in microbiology though, so that gives it some weight

 

[Disneylover99]

It is worth noting that China instituted some very extreme policies themselves to finally get a handle on it to stop spreading it. It's not like they stopped at 80K by using average precautionary measures.

And I think everyone all over the world is trying to do their part to get a handle on it. The bottom line is we’ll never know for sure how many will be affected by the virus in the end, but it will most certainly be way more then what was reported.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

The corona virus is 10 times more deadly than the flu, more contagious, there is no vaccine and no antivirals. Don’t look at the number of flu deaths, look at the percentage who die.

Read this. If you still are not sure why, read it again. Then again and again and again until you understand.

Now if you don't trust the virologists who all agree with that assessment, I have no answer for you, but that is the why, even if some don't accept it.

 

[sam_gordon]

They are only now just studying its contagion factor.

With the flu, you incubate for 3-5 dates with about 24 hours of the incubation phase being contagious. Once exhibiting symptoms of the flu, you shed for about 8-10 days.

With this virus, incubation is at least 14 days. You don't know you have it. It can be passed during that time although they are not sure at what point you can start passing before symptoms. After that, a person is found to be able to shed the virus for up to 37 days.

It is a much heartier virus than influzena.

Regarding the bolded, not according to WHO:

The “incubation period” means the time between catching the virus and beginning to have symptoms of the disease. Most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days. These estimates will be updated as more data become available.

So while the incubation period COULD last up to 14 days, it's most commonly around 5 days, so comparable to the flu.

 

[sam_gordon]

I’m fairly certain there are way more people then 80K in China who have caught it.

I think you're right. And that would make the mortality rate drop.

 

[mnrose]

Already there is a hospital in Seattle down to a 4 day supply of gloves. And, in Italy, they are triaging patients and giving beds ONLY to people likely to survive. Older and sicker people are being left to die. Read the Atlantic article. THAT is reality for Italy. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/ And, if you think our medical system could handle it any better, you are smoking something funny. That is what we are trying to avoid. And, if we do manage to "flatten the curve" on this, and our medical system isn't overwhelmed, lots of people are going to say "see, it wasn't a problem...no big deal." I hope that is what we are saying 3 weeks from now, and not "I can't believe my grandmother cannot even get a bed in a hospital, and was left to die."

Also, it's worth noting that Japan has now recorded it's first case of "re-infection." That is, a person had the virus, recovered (no virus) and is now infected again. Does that make you feel fantastic? Nope. Sure doesn't.

The numbers are small now, but that is in part because we are NOT testing as broadly as we should. We really have no idea. I got on a plane last Friday. There were about 100 diagnosed cases in the US. We are well over 1400 now. That kind of doubling rate is very high. At that rate, we will have hundreds of thousands of cases by the end of the month. China was able to cap it's rate of infection by extreme measures that Americans are just not gonna allow. And, look at all the carping and complaining here about the limited measures we've put in place. That's why our rate of infection is going to look more like Italy than China.

And, it frankly makes me nauseous when people say "hey most of us will survive" as if those who are older and with pre-existing conditions who WILL die simply don't matter. Ok then. If that works for you, fine. It doesn't work for me.

 

[sam_gordon]

Read this. If you still are not sure why, read it again. Then again and again and again until you understand.

Now if you don't trust the virologists who all agree with that assessment, I have no answer for you, but that is the why, even if some don't accept it.

As I said in my first post, I understand that *IF* you catch it, you stand more of a risk of dying than with the flu. BUT, do you stand a higher chance of catching corona? What I've heard is wash your hands more, and don't touch your face. So *IF* people follow that (and yes, that's a big if), then the chances are slim for catching it and therefore slim for dying from it?

 

[Christine]

Regarding the bolded, not according to WHO:

So while the incubation period COULD last up to 14 days, it's most commonly around 5 days, so comparable to the flu.

Okay, but it still could be 14 days right?

And from the WHO on influenza:

The time from infection to illness, known as the incubation period, is about 2 days, but ranges from one to four days.

So not the same as the flu.

 

[Brett Wyman]

The true fear is the strain on the hospitals. Nothing more. But it's a huge strain and can be extremely dangerous. That is where the fear is valid.

Even if a small percentage of Covid sufferers need hospitalization it can tax the heath care system to the point where they are having to decide WHO to save. Thats bad.