WOW DVC Prices !!!

[Sandisw]

Isn’t that the way it is now? That’s how RIV entered.

No, RIV resale entered not eligible for use at current and future resorts.

So, changing that requires them to change the current terms of the DVC resort agreement for RIV owners and BVTC.

As i said, they did give themselves the power to remove restrictions and change things, but that change to RIV resale being good at future resorts is a big one and requires new rules all the way around.

It seems like a lot of work vs, just eliminating them or charging a fee for trading, if they want to keep the restrictions in place.

 

[Genie+]

No, RIV resale entered not eligible for use at current and future resorts.

So, changing that requires them to change the current terms of the DVC resort agreement for RIV owners and BVTC.

As i said, they did give themselves the power to remove restrictions and change things, but that change to RIV resale being good at future resorts is a big one and requires new rules all the way around.

It seems like a lot of work vs, just eliminating them or charging a fee for trading, if they want to keep the restrictions in place.

It would still basically be those 3 categories, with the green part added.

The only way forward to do what you suggest is that the new resorts enter BVTC with rules for RIV/NEW points, rules for grandfsthered points, and resales of L14 bought after 2019.

Isn’t more complicated than it is now and likely to be well received, even by different interests. From existing owners and potential buyers, to sellers and potential sellers, there isn’t much of a downside. If it helps DVC keep Direct prices strong by limiting how far restricted resales differentiate is pricing, the compromise might be a win for all.

The one downside to DVC is resale getting in to new properties albeit with the previous mentioned limitations. It would help keep restricted resale up if economic pressures caused a flood/price fall. DVC isn’t going to want RofR to mop up the flood on a currently selling resort.

Right now they aren’t confirming which direction new sales will go, likely to remain flexible with their strategy. They are hoping for the best and preparing for worse.

 

[sndral]

I think the VGC resale prices will drop significantly once VDH are for sale ( which will be soon) . I believe it to drop to 175 a Pt or even less. The 2042 resorts will be dropping $10 a point or so per year from now on . At some point they will not even be worth the time and effort to purchase them . Probably around the point where there are 5-8 years left. At that point there will be a ton of Points on the Rental market because people cant sell so they will rent. This will probably drive the Rental cost PP down also. Just my thought . Lord help us if some sort of mini Hyperinflation sets in.

I’m not sure VGC will drop that far. It’s a much more attractive option than VDH IMO. VDH is a bit further from DL & CA, the cash Disney hotel rooms have always been cheaper than rooms in the Grand because the Grand is more upscale, & VGC is very very small so the supply side of the equation isn’t changing. If they pulled a VGF & converted hotel rooms at the Grand into DVC thus creating more supply, then maybe VGC would drop more in resale price, much like I expect VGF resale prices to drop or lose some value long term due to the increased supply from VGF2 resales.

From the beginning of RIV restrictions I wondered if they’d allow trades into subsequent new resorts, a DVC B group. Middle of the road, not so bad, and even somewhat desirable. It would still block people from the O14. Direct opens all the locks and resale would need at least 2 contracts to access both DVC A and B. Sales could push the no limitations aspect of Direct Membership.

It’s still possible. Economic downturn hitting hard? Resale tanking with RIV having a much larger gap than the rest? Then Poly2, VDH and the next announced new resort have an answer. Resale would benefit from Group B trading with each other but still, it’s only 3 or 4 resorts and one is actually in CA. The whole shebang is still way more enticing because it’s 17+ intriguing locations PLUS blue cards perks of Moonlight Magic, a slew of snazzy new exclusive lounges just for you, and whatever else they conjur.

It may sound too generous to allow restricted resale into just the newer resorts. But thinking about it in practice it is a deterrent. You’re locked out of GFV, BLT, BW/BC, CC/BR, AKV, OKW, SSR, AUL, HHI, Vero and locked into only the new High point charts. Your options are buy from Group A resale but you can’t ever combine those points…
or buy Direct

Restricted resale is saved from dipping farther than non. Direct doesn’t lose its attraction or need bigger incentives to compensate if the economy causes a flood of restricted RIV resales that sinks price because that very specific demand doesn’t keep up.

I doubt they’ll make Riviera resale unrestricted for future new DVC resorts because I don’t think DVC cares if resale prices drop.
I think the fact that restricted Riviera held its own & even at times outsold unrestricted VGF2 in direct sales sealed the deal w/ restrictions. Direct buyers don’t seem to be too bothered by the resale restrictions & it gives DVC a very different direct product to sell v. resale points.

 

[Genie+]

I doubt they’ll make Riviera resale unrestricted for future new DVC resorts because I don’t think DVC cares if resale prices drop.

I thought the same here but only as long as RIV resale prices remained a stone’s throw from Direct, similar to Copper Creek while in active sales. The big question is the economy/timing and the worrisome possibility RIV resale lands in the thick of it. Active sales would have a hard time trying to get over $200pp if resale’s at $110, and possibly hang a cloud over other new resort sales (with the same type of resale restrictions). This is the bummer scenario. Even being a low chance it does seem more possible than 1 or 2 years ago.

 

[Sandisw]

It would still basically be those 3 categories, with the green part added.

Isn’t more complicated than it is now and likely to be well received, even by different interests. From existing owners and potential buyers, to sellers and potential sellers, there isn’t much of a downside. If it helps DVC keep Direct prices strong by limiting how far restricted resales differentiate is pricing, the compromise might be a win for all.

The one downside to DVC is resale getting in to new properties albeit with the previous mentioned limitations. It would help keep restricted resale up if economic pressures caused a flood/price fall. DVC isn’t going to want RofR to mop up the flood on a currently selling resort.

Right now they aren’t confirming which direction new sales will go, likely to remain flexible with their strategy. They are hoping for the best and preparing for worse.

Yes, for new resorts they can certainly write it that way.

I guess my point was it makes no sense for DVD to keep a restrictions type situation in place and then move forward with resale points not restricted in the future.

So, either they commit or not. I personally don’t think the restrictions are hurting sales and the way things have played out with VGF and RIV supports that.

But, in order for my RIV resale points to be valid at the new resorts, it does require a change to the program and if you are doing that just get rid of them.

 

[Genie+]

But, in order for my RIV resale points to be valid at the new resorts, it does require a change to the program and if you are doing that just get rid of them.

Can be changed to eliminate or a middle of the road change, either which unlikely to upset the majority of owners. If they find it advantageous from their side, it’s a pretty easy move that I wouldn’t expect pushback from buyer/owner side. While not what they ultimately desired for the future but things change.

Does it really need to be on or off. Is there something in the middle that still benefits them more than giving up?

 

[Brian Noble]

I don't think you go through all of this just to create two Clubs, "before" and "after". I think this only makes sense if you are changing the fundamental nature of the Club to "in" and "out".

 

[Sandisw]

Can be changed to eliminate or a middle of the road change, either which unlikely to upset the majority of owners. If they find it advantageous from their side, it’s a pretty easy move that I wouldn’t expect pushback from buyer/owner side. While not what they ultimately desired for the future but things change.

Does it really need to be on or off. Is there something in the middle that still benefits them more than giving up?

IMO, it only makes sense to either keep with the plan or get rid of it. If they they want to enhance it, they add in a fee to owners to trade out if their points are home resort restricted.

For example, I have resale RIV. I want to book somewhere else. At 7 months, DVD will sell me one time points from what they own to be used for that one trip and I transfer back to them my RIV points as an exchange. In addition to the points, I pay an additional $5/pt…making something up…to get the reservation.

So, my 100 point trip to BLT would be 100 RIV points plus $500 exchange fee. To me, that makes a lot more sense and earns DVC money vs, eventually creating a second DVC that in 20 years would be pretty close to what they had before the started all of this.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

IMO, it only makes sense to either keep with the plan or get rid of it. If they they want to enhance it, they add in a fee to owners to trade out if their points are home resort restricted.

For example, I have resale RIV. I want to book somewhere else. At 7 months, DVD will sell me one time points from what they own to be used for that one trip and I transfer back to them my RIV points as an exchange. In addition to the points, I pay an additional $5/pt…making something up…to get the reservation.

So, my 100 point trip to BLT would be 100 RIV points plus $500 exchange fee. To me, that makes a lot more sense and earns DVC money vs, eventually creating a second DVC that in 20 years would be pretty close to what they had before the started all of this.

The reason I think something like this will never come about is that Disney wants to change the terms of the “Club”. It is a long term goal. They don’t want any resale points to be used at any other DVC resorts except their home resort. It technically disbands the whole premise of “ Club”. DVD is creating a totally new model and will be completed once the 2042 resorts contracts have expired. And that’s another reason why I feel we will not see any extensions to the 2042 resort contracts.

 

[Sandisw]

The reason I think something like this will never come about is that Disney wants to change the terms of the “Club”. It is a long term goal. They don’t want any resale points to be used at any other DVC resorts except their home resort. It technically disbands the whole premise of “ Club”. DVD is creating a totally new model and will be completed once the 2042 resorts contracts have expired. And that’s another reason why I feel we will not see any extensions to the 2042 resort contracts.

I don’t see them doing it either. I think they stay the course.

But if they were to do anything I think it would be fee based.

 

[E2ME2]

It's really interesting reading all these posts, all speculating what DVD will do with DVC after 2042.
If you were an original OKW owner, how did that expiration impact your DVC experience?
I'd like to hear what you think they SHOULD do ? ie - if it was in your power to make the decision, how would you handle the sun-setting of the 2042 resorts, and what new rules would you place on future DVC resorts??
I'll be mid-80s when my BCV & BWV contracts expire. I hope to still be using those points as I do now, but one never knows....... If I'm at the point where I no longer want to, or can't use them for any reason, then letting them expire is not a bad thing, and hopefully my SSR & AKL contracts will still have some resale value at that time.
If I'm still going strong with our current usage pattern, however, I would like to have some sort of option to continue staying at BCV & BWV.
I confess that I don't know what I would do if the decision was mine, but I would like to hear your ideas.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

2042 peels off several resorts but not all. 2 small offsite (VB and HHI) and BRV, BCV and BWV. Then it's another 12 years before the next - SSR which might be looked at as more of a positive because of it's large size. Next is OKW and AKV which I think will be a blow but that's almost 3 1/2 decades of being able to book multiple resorts with the non-RIV resale. 34 years of booking AKV, OKW, BLT, VGF, PVB and CCV as well as Aulani and VGC. 31 years of booking all of those plus SSR on top of 19 years of booking all 14. When I 1st bought there were only 8 resorts - 6 onsite - and that was more than enough.

Remaining committed to a full transformation to just another timeshare is going to require a lot of managements being steadfast to that. Plus we got a glimpse at something many thought was unthinkable - an actual threat to the Disney brand. They aren't out of the woods on that either.

 

[Bearval]

The only way forward to do what you suggest is that the new resorts enter BVTC with rules for RIV points, rules for grandfsthered points, and resales of L14 bought after 2019.

RIV agreement with BVTC would also need to to change . Is it possible ? Yeah, but I think it then defeats the whole purpose of making it restricted to begin with…

Now, i could see them changing it up to offer owners to upgrade points that are restricted for fee per reservation.

I guess I think they are either in or out with them. VGF I think is an outliner but if they do the same with Poly tower, then they might as well just end them all together. I don’t think they will.

My question is where would that "fee" money go? Directly to DVC? or would it be used to offset the MFs for that resort? Also would this be at the 7 month window or would it be like 6 months or less to give time for people without restricted points and opportunity to book at the 7 month window?

 

[Brian Noble]

My question is where would that "fee" money go? Directly to DVC? or would it be used to offset the MFs for that resort?

It seems to me that any mechanism that "washes" resale points--either year-by-year or more permanently--would be viewed akin to point sales, and go to DVD. I can't see how you could make the case for offsetting MFs with that revenue.

But it's all very speculative, as (so far) there hasn't been as much as a hint that there might be such a mechanism. Will there be someday? I predict that, eventually (as in many years down the road) there will be--there will be money on the table, and the Mouse is pretty good at picking that up. But I also predict that it will not be cheap, or even a particularly good deal, because otherwise what was the point of doing all this in the first place?

 

[zavandor]

It seems to me that any mechanism that "washes" resale points--either year-by-year or more permanently--would be viewed akin to point sales, and go to DVD. I can't see how you could make the case for offsetting MFs with that revenue.

But it's all very speculative, as (so far) there hasn't been as much as a hint that there might be such a mechanism. Will there be someday? I predict that, eventually (as in many years down the road) there will be--there will be money on the table, and the Mouse is pretty good at picking that up. But I also predict that it will not be cheap, or even a particularly good deal, because otherwise what was the point of doing all this in the first place?

Yep. I often read posts suggesting it might be $10 or $15pp to "wash" resale points. I would expect something more like $80 pp.

 

[Sandisw]

My question is where would that "fee" money go? Directly to DVC? or would it be used to offset the MFs for that resort? Also would this be at the 7 month window or would it be like 6 months or less to give time for people without restricted points and opportunity to book at the 7 month window?

The RIV POS mentions something that they could do in terms of cash program…paraphrases the language here…so an idea like this could be something they decided would be the best of both worlds. .

If such program happened, fees would go to DVC/DVD because it would involve using points they own…similar to OTU points…to give the owner an option to trade out their points for DVDs points.

Of course, it would need to be 7 months or less before it happened because the points they would have available would be from all the resorts…like OTU points are .

It would have nothing to do with owners and MFs…because it would simply be an additional exchange program implemented, like they have right now with cruises etc,

When they rent a room for cash to pay for those trades, any additional funds they might earn on those trades goes right back to them.

Again, not saying this is going to happen or that the specifics of this type of were even included in any POS but that there are ways to keep restrictions in place, and give owners a way to stay elsewhere without making a DVC 2.

Basically, it would be like an owner renting their points and then turning around and renting a reservation from someone else, but that someone else being DVD.

 

[Sandisw]

Yep. I often read posts suggesting it might be $10 or $15pp to "wash" resale points. I would expect something more like $80 pp.

My post above was talking about a per trip fee and that it only happens if and when you want to trade out elsewhere, not that it would change the use of points moving forward,

I agree that type of program would be quite expensive

 

[DonMacGregor]

Yep. I often read posts suggesting it might be $10 or $15pp to "wash" resale points. I would expect something more like $80 pp.

That how I see it. Any “washing” program would really just amount to members receiving the opportunity to basically “re-purchase” the points for the term of a new contract, without the hassle of going through the whole purchasing process, and with a significant “discount”.

 

[E2ME2]

Are there lessons learned from the original OKW contracts ??
I remember reading lots of conflicting opinions, when we were first exposed to these boards back in 2011...........
At that time, it really wasn't on my list of worries, as I only owned at SSR back then, and was a noob
I do remember reading that not every original owner signed off on the proposed exit/transition strategy ?
Is it too much to hope that DVC would have made note of that in their corporate database, and that they learned some lessons that will impact their 2042 game plan?

 

[Bearval]

Yep. I often read posts suggesting it might be $10 or $15pp to "wash" resale points. I would expect something more like $80 pp.

The cost of washing points if it were to ever happen in my opinion would be slightly higher that the difference between the current resale prices for that particular resort and the current direct price. If it was anything less than people would just buy resale then wash the points.