Why?

[sam_gordon]

Okay, but it still could be 14 days right?

And from the WHO on influenza:

The time from infection to illness, known as the incubation period, is about 2 days, but ranges from one to four days.

So not the same as the flu.

Not what you said... "incubation is AT LEAST 14 days". And sorry, to me, "one to four days" IS comparable to "around five days".

 

[Disneylover99]

I think you're right. And that would make the mortality rate drop.

On the flip side there could be elderly people who have died and it was attributed to old age. But they may have contracted the virus. The mortality rate may also be higher then what is being reported.

 

[Bianca and Bernard]

It is worth noting that China instituted some very extreme policies themselves to finally get a handle on it to stop spreading it. It's not like they stopped at 80K by using average precautionary measures.

And can we truly believe the numbers coming out of some countries? Not to belittle or be mean to those from those places, but disinformation is a way of life for their governments. (not that the US is any better, we do our fair share of this)

Denial, hiding until it can't be hidden any more. Chernobyl comes to mind, as an example. Tuskegee experiments. The SARS epidemic...brought to you from the same country that has given us COVID-19.

I am not a conspiracy theorist. I don't believe Bush caused 9-11 or that UFOs are hidden in Area 51. But I do believe that governments hide as much as they can get away with. And in this particular situation, I think things were a lot worse at the beginning than they have let on.

But I could be wrong. I really hope I am.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

As I said in my first post, I understand that *IF* you catch it, you stand more of a risk of dying than with the flu. BUT, do you stand a higher chance of catching corona? What I've heard is wash your hands more, and don't touch your face. So *IF* people follow that (and yes, that's a big if), then the chances are slim for catching it and therefore slim for dying from it?

Yes, you do. This is far more infectious than the flu. The flu has an R0 of 1. This has an R0 of 2.8

 

[sam_gordon]

Yes, you do. This is far more infectious than the flu. The flu has an R0 of 1. This has an R0 of 2.8

English please?

And if you follow the "hand washing" and "no hands to the face", is that enough to keep you from catching it? Or is it just out there to make people feel they can do something?

 

[ronandannette]

Many people will get it and not even know, but they’ll pass it to others. Many people will have mild symptoms and never be tested. Many people will just deal with it at home and never report it. I’m fairly certain there are way more people then 80K in China who have caught it.

Maybe I'm thinking about it wrong, but rather than comparing Covid19 to the flu (which some go a lifetime without ever contracting), we should be thinking of it more as we do a cold - a cold that KILLS a certain percentage of the people who get it. Like the ubiquitous cold virus, that everyone gets at least once a year, practically everyone will get this too, whether or not they know it. I have not heard an authoritative statement about whether or not surviving a mild case produces future immunity. If it does not, Covid19 will continue to be a deadly threat until an effective vaccine is developed.

I think you're right. And that would make the mortality rate drop.

You are completely right about this. I don't know why this aspect of it us being ignored. I guess though it is similar with the flu also. Many, many people who have it are not officially diagnosed and recover completely on their own. Perhaps there's some algorithm they use for "doing the math" that takes this into account.

 

[kiddo76]

It's already difficult to get people who are clearly sick and contagious to stay home. The US is heavy into a culture of "perfect attendance" and "never taking a sick day". How are we to expect that people who might have come into contact with COVID-19, but aren't showing any symptoms to stay home? With a possible 14 day incubation period, 1 person could infect a lot of people before they even realize they are sick.

Every day schools have to send students home because parents let their kids go to school sick. Every day, employees feel pressured to go to work even while they are sneezing and coughing all over the place. Every day, people who are sick go out to concerts and movies and theme parks because they "already paid good money".

Really the only way to keep sick people home is to keep everyone home, or at least limit the number of opportunities for people to congregate.

 

[sam_gordon]

It is more contagious because experts have said it is more contagious. Are you an expert? For the regular flu, i think they say the typical number of people who get it are like 1.2 for every person who has it. For coronavirus, it’s 2. This entire thread seems more and more disingenuous now—you are determined to downplay and shrug your shoulders about it. I’m glad you feel so much more confident than all epidemiologists, business and government leaders—always interesting to see such an extreme example of the Dunning-Kruger effect

If you don't like what I'm asking, then feel free to skip the thread. I never said I was an expert. I'm asking questions and trying to learn. If you're happy with "because an expert said so", that's fine. I have an inquisitive mind. I'm sitting here at home, waiting for the family to wake up and thought I'd share my thoughts.

One of my company's properties in NY evacuated their building because of a confirmed case. Do a deep clean of their work space (or the entire building), I get. An evacuation seems overkill to me.

 

[sam_gordon]

It's already difficult to get people who are clearly sick and contagious to stay home. The US is heavy into a culture of "perfect attendance" and "never taking a sick day". How are we to expect that people who might have come into contact with COVID-19, but aren't showing any symptoms to stay home? With a possible 14 day incubation period, 1 person could infect a lot of people before they even realize they are sick.

Every day schools have to send students home because parents let their kids go to school sick. Every day, employees feel pressured to go to work even while they are sneezing and coughing all over the place. Every day, people who are sick go out to concerts and movies and theme parks because they "already paid good money".

Really the only way to keep sick people home is to keep everyone home, or at least limit the number of opportunities for people to congregate.

This is very true. And maybe it's because I'm fortunate, my family is generally very healthy, we really don't have much interaction with elderly or those who would be at higher risk that's affecting my thinking.

 

[msjprincess]

English please?

And if you follow the "hand washing" and "no hands to the face", is that enough to keep you from catching it? Or is it just out there to make people feel they can do something?

It means how many secondary cases there will be from each infection. Someone with the flu will pass it on to one other person on average. With coronavirus each person will pass it on to an average of 2.8 people.

 

[msjprincess]

The corona virus is 10 times more deadly than the flu, more contagious, there is no vaccine and no antivirals. Don’t look at the number of flu deaths, look at the percentage who die.

And that's a low estimate. In Italy it's over 7% right now. They're not sure if it's because they have an older population or people aren't able to get treated because hospitals are full.

 

[pryncess527]

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/

 

[pryncess527]

Not what you said... "incubation is AT LEAST 14 days". And sorry, to me, "one to four days" IS comparable to "around five days".

OK but they’re not the same to epidemiologists and those who study disease spread

 

[wgeo]

It means how many secondary cases there will be from each infection. Someone with the flu will pass it on to one other person on average. With coronavirus each person will pass it on to an average of 2.8 people.

Yes, this is a description of the R naught factor that is spoken of. For anyone interested in learning about the science and educating themselves on the facts - this is discussed very well in the article that I already linked on the first page of this thread.

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/
There it is again in case you missed it. It contains a lot of solid facts and information that is quite helpful to understand.

 

[kiddo76]

This is very true. And maybe it's because I'm fortunate, my family is generally very healthy, we really don't have much interaction with elderly or those who would be at higher risk that's affecting my thinking.

It definitely does. I spent 4 flu seasons in a row taking care of my mother with Stage IV Lung Cancer and my elderly father with diabetes and dementia. I became hyper aware about bringing anything around my parents that could make them sick. I stopped Substitute Teaching because I just couldn't risk that amount of exposure. Dad passed away March 2018 after contacting the flu while in a Rehab Nursing Home. Mom passed away from cancer April 2019.

I'm not afraid for myself getting COVID-19, but I also don't want to be the person to give it to someone at high risk or someone taking care of a loved one who is high risk.

This is a time to be putting the collective above the individual.

 

[mnrose]

It definitely does. I spent 4 flu seasons in a row taking care of my mother with Stage IV Lung Cancer and my elderly father with diabetes and dementia. I became hyper aware about bringing anything around my parents that could make them sick. I stopped Substitute Teaching because I just couldn't risk that amount of exposure. Dad passed away March 2018 after contacting the flu while in a Rehab Nursing Home. Mom passed away from cancer April 2019.

I'm not afraid for myself getting COVID-19, but I also don't want to be the person to give it to someone at high risk or someone taking care of a loved one who is high risk.

This is a time to be putting the collective above the individual.

Your last sentence says it all. Lots of Americans are just unwilling to do that. Indeed OP's original premise is that if we wash our hands and don't touch our face, we can't get it. Therefore, if you do, it's your fault and you deserve what you get. That is implicit in this discussion from OP's point of view. It's all about what happens to OP personally, and the rest of us, including the most vulnerable, well, too bad for them. Stop touching your face. Eyeroll.

 

[pryncess527]

This is a time to be putting the collective above the individual.

Atlas Shrugged is my favorite book of all time, but Kiddo is right

 

[DisneyOma]

Maybe I'm thinking about it wrong, but rather than comparing Covid19 to the flu (which some go a lifetime without ever contracting), we should be thinking of it more as we do a cold - a cold that KILLS a certain percentage of the people who get it. Like the ubiquitous cold virus, that everyone gets at least once a year, practically everyone will get this too, whether or not they know it. I have not heard an authoritative statement about whether or not surviving a mild case produces future immunity. If it does not, Covid19 will continue to be a deadly threat until an effective vaccine is developed.

I once went 6 years without getting a cold. I work in a high school. So your "everyone gets a cold at least once a year" makes your comparison invalid, IMO.

To get COVID-19 you need to get the virus in your mouth, eyes, or nasal passages. Same as any other virus. Wash your hands, don't touch your face; if you have to cough, do it into your elbow.

 

[kiddo76]

Atlas Shrugged is my favorite book of all time, but Kiddo is right

That's "collective" with a lower case "c".

 

[DeniseJH]

To get COVID-19 you need to get the virus in your mouth, eyes, or nasal passages. Same as any other virus. Wash your hands, don't touch your face; if you have to cough, do it into your elbow.

Yes, but I read (and I'll have to try and find the source) just yesterday, I believe, that the virus stays alive in the air for quite a while. So it's not just about hand washing.