The death rates don't really start to climb until the medical system is overwhelmed. We're not there yet, but odds are we will be.
However, it is possible that the sheer size of our country will work in our favor, because we may be able to shift some resources around as local areas experience their peak at different times. Of course, that assumes we're mobilizing additional resources to places of particular need, and right now, there's not a lot of that being done.
I think that, to borrow a phrase that came up on another thread, the demographics of the DIS makes it hard for people to see this perspective, because people dying for lack of money or health care probably isn't a reality in most DISers lives. But it is the case for a lot of people in this country, so I can't really condemn them for their thinking. Tens of thousands of people die of preventable causes in this country for lack of health insurance every year, and anything that causes the levels of unemployment this is going to cause is going to increase those numbers dramatically. I already know one family who is likely to be facing eviction if this lasts into next month, and another who lost the health insurance that pays for her adult child's insulin. I know two recovering addicts who have lost access to their support systems (because AA & NA are shut down, along with most counseling facilities), one of whom has also lost access to his opioid-replacement medication and is facing physical withdrawal as well as the lack of emotional support, and two kids who are now shut at home with physically abusive parents. These aren't unusual stories in America. But I think most people on the DIS live in relatively comfortable middle/upper middle class bubbles where there's a certain remoteness to the stories of people in those positions, and in many cases a certain degree of moral judgment as well, that makes the risks to those groups less "real" than the risks to our elder loved ones.
I'm not for just throwing up our hands and letting the virus run its course. But I do think we need a more aggressive plan than just sheltering in place until a vaccine is ready. With widespread infection testing, immunity testing and targeted quarantines, we could keep more of our economy running through the crisis while still taking measures to limit the virus's spread and death toll. But we're not doing any of that, and I do understand how many in the most economically fragile groups feel like that's saving the lives of those most susceptible to the virus at the expense of those most susceptible to the economic disruption.
ETA: And you only have to look a few posts back to see how the concerns of the economically fragile are being minimized and disregarded. Not wanting to lose the job that you need to have health insurance, not wanting to lose the roof over one's head, worrying about how you're going to feed your kids... all these very real issues in a culture that has basically embraced social Darwinism when it comes to the poor are being dismissed as being about buying a kid an Xbox. Up next will be the responses that if they really wanted to have food, shelter and health care they should have saved enough money on their paycheck-to-paycheck wages to weather weeks or months without work and without even the ability to look for a new job.