How bad the situation will be depends to a great extent on how long this park closure lasts. If the resorts and parks actually open in May, or even as late as mid-June, the effect might be barely noticeable.
The number of members who can actually make reservations is not changing. This is occurring during DVC's low to moderate demand time of the year at WDW. Those losing reservations now will do little to add to the demand for the fall 2020 season simply because most of that fall season is already booked particularly for high demand rooms like studios at near park resorts. Moreover, as to the rooms with extreme 11-month issues such as AKV club level and value studios and BWV standard studios, no one is going to see it getting worse simply because it cannot get any worse, e.g., the rooms are already fully booked right at 8 a.m. at 11-months out, or even shortly before 11-months out; they are not suddenly going to start disappearing at 12 months out.
Likely, a large percentage of the those losing reservations now, who will have current use year points returned (and can be banked) and borrowed points returned to their original use year, are going to be attempting to make new reservations next year during the same lower spring time demand period. Many of those will try for the same size rooms they usually get, possibly for longer stays, and thus add somewhat to demand for the spring period, but they are still going to be able to get their rooms, even studios, other than ones that already have a real 11-month issue, at and beyond 11-months out at home resorts, e.g., many of those rooms may disappear a little quicker than before but members should still have plenty of time into the 11-month window to make the reservation. Moreover, a lot of those members are likely to use their extra points to reserve bigger rooms, such as 1BRs which have historically been open well beyond the 7-month window during the spring season. Those 1BRs might disappear somewhat quicker into the 7 -month window, but otherwise there should not be a significant change in being able get the room.
Thus, my sense is that the current closure and return of points is not going to lead to some major and noticeable future booking problems, which do not already exist, as long as this is not a very long-term closure.
As to what DVC can actually do to correct any such newly caused skewed demand, the answer is probably not much. Note, it is already doing what it is supposed to do deal with the existing excess demand problem, by raising the points needed in 2021 for fall seaon and lowering it in other seasons that have lower demand. It could make another such adjustment for 2022, which would likely result in significantly minimizing the possible impact the current closure might have on the current high demand seasons, e.g., all those extra points being saved now will not suddenly become ones that will create more excess demand for the fall season in 2021 or after.
There is actually another remedy, which most members would probably be against, but that DVC could adopt if it appears any new skewed demand has a significant impact on the 7-month reservation window. Unbeknownst to many, the limitation to making seasonal demand changes, and to keeping total points needed to reserve rooms the same for the year, applies only to the 11-month home resort reservation period. BVTC, which is in charge of setting points needed for 7-months out, and to date has done nothing more than simply accept the 11-month charts created by DVCM, can, to correct excess demand at 7-months out, create its own
point charts which are not subject to the rule that total points needed to reserve rooms for the year cannot exceed the total existing points. For example, if it sees some new excess demand at 7-months out for any parts of the year for studios resulting from the coronavirus closures, it could simply put out a new 7-month
point chart applicable to owners of one resort trying to reserve another resort, that raises the nightly point cost for studios for those periods of excess demand, while not lowering points at all elsewhere in the point chart. Though I believe that is not likely to happen, it is one of the possible "surprises" members could get if many start demanding that the modern DVC make changes to deal with any excess demand problem resulting from the return-of-points created by the coronavirus closures.