Ok. I was thinking more on the other side. If disney cant open due to florida issues and the rest of the country is past peak. You were looking at it the other way. We were on the same book. Different chapter.
The offering of free dining is zero indication of an opening date. Noone knows a date right now at all. Hence why the parks are closed indefinitely and even the things they tell you when you book specifically say IF the parks are open prior to or after the date of the reservation. They are not making any guarantees because they know not to.
Unless you personally know a Disney executive, it's highly unlikely that you know what dates Disney is or is not throwing around internally. None of us do.
But from the data I've been tracking, virtually every country is following the same sort of curve, albeit some countries are further along the curve than others, once you normalise the data for population size (something that most media outlets don't do). So we can expect the curve in Florida to follow the same sort of curve as elsewhere, and my statistical analysis shows that Florida is roughly where Italy was on 10th March. So I would put Florida around 3 weeks behind Italy, and given that Italy is peaking just about now, I expect the peak for Florida to come around 3 weeks from now. That would make the Florida peak late April, not mid-May. Then if we assume another 3-4 weeks of numbers dropping after that, I can see the parks opening up late May/early June. Which is why I can see that Disney seem to be aiming for a 1st June opening. If I was a betting man, that is the date I would aim for too.
From my number crunching, Florida is roughly in the middle of states. So you are quite correct that some normality may well return to Florida before the whole of the US as a whole. Of course the big question is do you open up the country state by state, or the whole country at once?
Actually, death rates in Virginia are very similar to Florida at the moment, if you normalise the data for population - so that June 10th stay at home order in Virginia is a very good indicator, and I would say might point to a risk to the 1st June opening. I still think that restrictions lifting late May is more likely, but if some states still have stay at home orders in place, it would be more difficult for Disney to re-open (although not impossible).
I think you mostly open state by state for lifting curfew and shelter in place and opening the vast majority of non-essential businesses. But things like WDW and cruise ships that by their very nature are not bound by states might not be so easy to do that way. They may need to wait a little longer than getting your local barbershop back in business.
Gotcha!!! Sorry about that! I was a little surprised, as I felt like I had been agreeing with all your posts lately, LOL.All the models including the most reliable us model from the university of Washington shows florida peak mid may. CDC confirmed that the us has various time frames due to a lot of factors and the UW stat model.is indeed the most accurate. You cant use the time frame from other places to extrapolate any other place due to different quarantine, stay at home, etc timeframes. Each area is individual. So based on the most accurate model which took those factors into account. Mid may peak in florida, 4- 6 week.peak, puts it early july. Then the decrease in cases moves it to mid july. Those fall in line with what we are actually seeing in florida.
This site has modeling for each state. It predicts May 3 for the peak for Florida with a mid June all clear of sorts.
