Buy Riv direct now, or wait for VGF2? Help please !

[BrianLo]

Just to play Devil's advocate, is there any DVC where the Studios aren't generally the first to go? I understand the logic that 1-bedrooms will be more difficult to book than they are now, but will they be more difficult to book than Studios are currently?

Unless the 1-bedrooms always go first in the future, Disney will have made the correct decision by going all in on Studios.

 

[DonMacGregor]

The thing is, its a beautiful resort, and along with CCV, Riviera and Aulani, its where we want to stay. So, though I understand your reasoning, many of us quite enjoy being owners. And I'm not sure I agree with your gloom and doom. I would bet early booking at the 11 month mark for most times of year, particularly for the pricier lake view one bedrooms, won't be an issue. I think there's a chance, though, that booking at 7 months will be difficult. On the plus side, VGF2 provides an opportunity to buy points in greater supply and at, knock on wood, a more reasonable rate (which we'll all debate until the day pricing is announced).

I understand what you’re saying. I’m just struggling to believe that thousands of new owners will have no impact on the 1BR’s. Simply put, unless absolutely zero VGF2 buyers decide to book anything other than resort studios, there will be more people trying to book the same number of 1BR’s.

There was a study done out here in So Cal (I’ll try to find it to link) on the impact of adding HOV/carpool lanes to ease congestion on certain freeways. What the study concluded was that while the addition of new lanes (whether HOV/carpool or even just freeway widening), provided initial easing of congestion, the lure of the new lanes and the promise of a shorter and easier commute and the resulting redirection of traffic towards the improved route by commuters, actually made the “improved” route even more congested.

Adding carpool lanes because traffic flow studies indicate that’s where the greatest demand lies, definitely draws additional carpool lane users as intended, but also draws additional drivers using regular lanes as well. One suggested explanation went something like: “Hey, they just added carpool lanes on XXX. That means the regular lanes should be less crowded, so I’ll try that route instead”.

 

[RoseGold]

Just to play Devil's advocate, is there any DVC where the Studios aren't generally the first to go?

Yes, OKW, where the GV is one of the best values in the system.

I agree with your overall point though. People want studios. The old style of DVC where you pinch pennies by bringing a sandwich doesn’t make much sense when DVC and Disney are expensive as they are now. DVC’s customer has shifted because the buy in is so high.

Luxury hotel room makes a lot of sense to me.

 

[Brian Noble]

I’m just struggling to believe that thousands of new owners will have no impact on the 1BR’s.

This can cut both ways though. There are thousands of new owners, some of whom will want 1BRs. But there may be plenty of current owners who (a) can't book studios (b) book a 1BR begrudgingly as a backup and (c) will gravitate to the Resort Studios when they are declared for inventory.

We won't know which flow is larger until we see what happens with bookings. Right now, the resort is "under-studio'd". Will it be "over-studio'd" after the conversion is done? Time will tell.

If you watch what DVC owners actually do, at this resort and others, it seems clear that the vast majority of them are interested in stretching points at all levels. It's not just the studios that go first, but also in most cases the cheapest view category for larger units as well. There are a handful of exceptions (AKV Club comes to mind), but this seems to hold. The only place where it's iffy is SSR, but there are more Standard units than Preferred, and the 1BRs book up at about the same time, though the Standard studios go just a little bit earlier by eyeballing the charts.

 

[nuhusky123]

Yes, OKW, where the GV is one of the best values in the system.

I agree with your overall point though. People want studios. The old style of DVC where you pinch pennies by bringing a sandwich doesn’t make much sense when DVC and Disney are expensive as they are now. DVC’s customer has shifted because the buy in is so high.

Luxury hotel room makes a lot of sense to me.

The idea of pinching pennies when going to wdw and staying at gfv do seem to be in conflict.

wdw is stupid expensive and one is staying at the flagship resort

the new customer who buys gfv and isn’t already a dvc member won’t be the pinching penny type in my opinion

 

[DonMacGregor]

This can cut both ways though. There are thousands of new owners, some of whom will want 1BRs. But there may be plenty of current owners who (a) can't book studios (b) book a 1BR begrudgingly as a backup and (c) will gravitate to the Resort Studios when they are declared for inventory.

But those existing owners will now be competing with all the VGF2 owners for those same new studios, and there’s no argument from me that the majority of new owners WILL be shooting for those new studios, whether it’s through natural demand, Disney marketing push, whatever. It’s the effect that even a small percentage of new owners will have on existing 1BR inventory that I’m questioning.

At the end of the day, there are a couple of irrefutable facts: there will be thousands of new owners, and zero new 1BR’s.

 

[Brian Noble]

Correct. But I don’t think it follows from those two facts that 1BRs will necessarily be harder to book at 11 months. The aggregate demand for 1BRs may increase but if the early bookers still have enough inventory that’s good enough. Here on the DIS it is tempting to think that every owner obsesses over using their DVC points the way we do, but plenty of points go completely unused—-breakage hits the contractual payback limit every single year.

 

[Brian Noble]

Coming back to this, here's a better way of describing what I am thinking.

It is undoubtedly true that the demand relative to supply for e.g. 1BRs will increase compared to where it is today. However, that may not matter. Here's why.

Some fraction (X) of the current owner base prefers studios to other units. That is larger than the "fraction" of the resort represented by studios (Y). You can figure Y however you like---based on fraction of rooms, fraction of total points, whatever. The important part is that X > Y.

With the new addition, a larger fraction Y' (> Y) of the resort will be represented by studios. Presumably, because people are people, the proportion X will remain (roughly) constant---there are more people who want 1BRs, but there are also proportinally more people overall. So, the question is whether the new situation is X > Y' > Y, or Y' > X > Y?

I don't think the answer is obvious.

If it is the former (X > Y' > Y), it is probably not materially different from the current situation for Grand Floridian owners, except at the margins. If it is the latter (Y' > X > Y) we'll know pretty quickly, because suddenly 11 month 1BR reservations will be hard to get at times other than the obvious candidates, and studios will suddenly become easier.

(I suppose it is also possible that X = Y' > Y, but that's hard to get exactly right.)

 

[DonMacGregor]

I understand what you're saying. Your suggestion is that the number of current owners who'll shift from 1BR's to resort studios given the new opportunity (and would have before, but they just weren't there), may be larger than the number of new owners who'll chose 1BR's over resort studios. The net effect being that the demand for 1BR's may remain static, or possibly decrease. That's entirely possible.

My point simply is that Disney has converted hotel rooms to studios, they are gearing up to market and sell exclusively studios, and they apparently feel that the demand for studios is greatest. I still think that all of these hundreds or thousands of new owners will opt primarily for those studios, and those new studios will still get swept up quickly and there may not be ample opportunities for the existing owners to jump the 1BR ship. Plus, there will be some number, as previously discussed, that will opt to vie for the 1BR's and will be able to do so at 11 months.

Of course anything is possible and not necessarily disagreeing with you, but at the end of the day, the demand WILL be greater across the board at VGF. The question is where will that demand end up?

 

[Paul Stupin]

I understand what you're saying. Your suggestion is that the number of current owners who'll shift from 1BR's to resort studios given the new opportunity (and would have before, but they just weren't there), may be larger than the number of new owners who'll chose 1BR's over resort studios. The net effect being that the demand for 1BR's may remain static, or possibly decrease. That's entirely possible.

My point simply is that Disney has converted hotel rooms to studios, they are gearing up to market and sell exclusively studios, and they apparently feel that the demand for studios is greatest. I still think that all of these hundreds or thousands of new owners will opt primarily for those studios, and those new studios will still get swept up quickly and there may not be ample opportunities for the existing owners to jump the 1BR ship. Plus, there will be some number, as previously discussed, that will opt to vie for the 1BR's and will be able to do so at 11 months.

Of course anything is possible and not necessarily disagreeing with you, but at the end of the day, the demand WILL be greater across the board at VGF. The question is where will that demand end up?

Across the board with DVC, demand for one bedrooms is generally lower than that for studios and two bedrooms. I think it might be safe to assume that VGF2 won't shift the paradigm. Seven month availability could be a different story.

 

[nuhusky123]

I think seven month availability of one and two beds will be impossible. TBD on studios

 

[DarthDadMan]

I wouldn't wait to buy unless you really want to see what, if any, deals DVC will be rolling out for GF2. Either way, it's not a better deal than Poly at 160ish pp. My opinion would be to buy Poly now and start making those memories now.

 

[ITGirl50]

Yes, OKW, where the GV is one of the best values in the system.

I agree with your overall point though. People want studios. The old style of DVC where you pinch pennies by bringing a sandwich doesn’t make much sense when DVC and Disney are expensive as they are now. DVC’s customer has shifted because the buy in is so high.

Luxury hotel room makes a lot of sense to me.

I don’t understand why someone would pay $30k+ for the opportunity to stay in a hotel room. Nothing special about that. If I owned GFV I would be angry that all those hotel room points WILL affect my ability to get a one bedroom. It makes no sense to me other than a money grab by Disney.

 

[davidl81]

I don’t understand why someone would pay $30k+ for the opportunity to stay in a hotel room. Nothing special about that. If I owned GFV I would be angry that all those hotel room points WILL affect my ability to get a one bedroom. It makes no sense to me other than a money grab by Disney.

Let’s be honest, a studio is not any real difference from a hotel room. It has a sink and a sleeper sofa that’s the difference. Poly showed DVC that there is a substantial market for those rooms (and Disney knows more than any of us which rooms are in The highest demand).

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I think two studios demand outweighs one bedroom. Just looked at the point charts and two studios is less than a one bedroom. Makes sense that it is. It does make connecting studios a nice option

 

[ITGirl50]

Let’s be honest, a studio is not any real difference from a hotel room. It has a sink and a sleeper sofa that’s the difference. Poly showed DVC that there is a substantial market for those rooms (and Disney knows more than any of us which rooms are in The highest demand).

Since the price per point and the point chart are both very high, of course people can only afford studios. Two studios is not the same as a one bedroom. No washer/dryer or real kitchen will make you have to pack more and spend more money on the Disney food. DVC started as a home away from home. That’s why we love it. I also know people who bought Polly and regretted it because they only have studios and sold it. There are a lot of uninformed buyers, so I’m sure they will sell it. The new buyers won’t understand the point chart is very high or the limited availability of the larger units.

 

[davidl81]

Since the price per point and the point chart are both very high, of course people can only afford studios. Two studios is not the same as a one bedroom. No washer/dryer or real kitchen will make you have to pack more and spend more money on the Disney food. DVC started as a home away from home. That’s why we love it. I also know people who bought Polly and regretted it because they only have studios and sold it. There are a lot of uninformed buyers, so I’m sure they will sell it. The new buyers won’t understand the point chart is very high or the limited availability of the larger units.

Of course studios are different than 1BR, but the point was studios are really no major difference than a regular hotel room. And studios are the most popular booking category in DVC.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Across the board with DVC, demand for one bedrooms is generally lower than that for studios and two bedrooms. I think it might be safe to assume that VGF2 won't shift the paradigm. Seven month availability could be a different story.

I totally get that and don’t disagree. My point was that the whole idea of 1BR availability at VGF remaining unchanged relies upon these new studios satisfying the booking needs of not only all of the new owners, but also any existing owners that are assumed to be chomping at the bit to get out of 1BR’s as soon as more studios come online.

Will some existing owners takes advantage of the increased studio inventory to move over from 1BR’s? Quite possibly, but will it offset any new owners deciding they like the larger units (or any new owners who never intended to stay in studios)? Obviously impossible to say. I also wonder if this idea of reserving two studios versus a single 1BR (even if it’s a minor trend) won’t have significant impact on availability and force people to stay in, or try to get into 1BR’s in the future.

Just thinking out loud.

 

[kboo]

final food for thought, getting 1 or 2 beds at gfv is going to be really hard. Not impossible if you own there (impossible if you don’t) but harder than it is now. A family of your size will need either two studios or a bigger room.

Yup - interesting though, that a 2br would sleep 10, as would 2 studios. I wonder what the point difference is (to get a dining area and laundry...) (sorry too lazy to look it up) I could see a family of park commandos with teens doing 2 studios, but choosing a 2br with little kids (or older people, like my dad) or for ease of laundry.

Honestly, it’s tough because they are adding 200 studios and that is a lot of new points that could be competing for the small number of 2 bedrooms they have there.

RIV and VGF are my top two resorts so I think they are great choices. It comes down to where you would rather stay if you can’t trade out elsewhere.

IMO, the concern over resale restrictions is overblown. It has helps its own better than anyone thought it would, even given the few sales that have occurred. I myself paid more than I thought I would because I love the resort,

I am also one who doesn’t think resale value should be part of the decision. We looked at any return at all on the buy in cost as a bonus. But, its important you be comfortable with it.

We do know that VGF has done well in resale, but what we do not know is how the addition will impact it yet, given that the price has not yet been announced.

Agree 100% - especially on - you could resell if you needed to, and hopefully break even or not lose too much. In life circumstances where you'd need to resell in a hurry, I would think that I'd be more concerned about the life circumstances and less so about whether reselling my DVC is going to get me the best deal.

We own at BLT, VGF and RIV. My resale contracts are grandfathered, so all points are "unrestricted" for 7mo booking. BUT - if I only had to use my RIV points at RIV, I would be happy to do that. DH and I continually debate whether VGF or RIV is our favorite resort. Our current consensus (after having just stayed at both over Xmas/NYE): VGF is preferred for Christmas because of the decorations, RIV (standard view no less) preferred for NYE where you have a decent chance of seeing both MK AND EP fireworks. I originally thought I would pick up a resale RIV on the cheap solely for booking standard rooms at the 11mo window, because our other points are unrestricted. And ended up loving the resort so much that we didn't want to hunt and wait and compete for the "right" resale contract.

but One fun upside to Resale (to ALMOST balance the stress of ROFR and longer timeframes) is you might find a sale with a lot of points banked - that allows you to add an earlier trip with the family for your "first" hooray, we own this.

Our very first resale contract (BLT) had almost double points and we had around 300 points to play with for our first booking. That is dangerous because we immediately felt like we needed more points. And so we added on ... and on ...

So let's say Riviera actually does have long-term re-sale worse than other resorts, it will never be THAT MUCH worse. So let's say Riviera and GFV are both $201 per point. Let's say GFV better retains better resale value -- So in 5 years, you can re-sell GFV at 75% of the direct price -- $151 per point. Losing only $50 per point. On 250 points, you lost $12,500 in value. Let's say RIV re-sale value stinks, you only get back 70% of the direct price -- So you only get back $141 per point -- So when you re-sell, you lost $15,000! Is that difference of $2,500 enough to really base your entire decision around?

That is a great way of putting it. When you put actual numbers on it, it is almost nothing. Like maybe it can function as a tiebreaker, but it should not stop you from picking one over the other based on where you actually WANT to stay.

Those of us predicting that could be wrong and we should know in a month or two once RIV and AUL prices go up to $207.

I feel like this is setting up VGF direct to be priced a little higher - but perhaps lower than what they are now. Maybe at or just under Poly? Has someone done a poll on this? Would be interesting.

Where do you want to stay? We own at Riviera and recently did the 2-bedroom, and it was huge and fabulous! I really think you need to be thinking 1-bedrooms to start (years 1-4) and then 2-bedrooms realistically forevermore. VGF and RIV are gorgeous. You can't go wrong with either. Both offer close proximity to the parks. Riviera resale is doing just fine. The hysteria is definitely overblown on the resale restrictions. No one likes it, but it's our new reality until further notice, so go where you'll be happy. I, myself, prefer the layout of Riviera/CC over the O14 for the two-bedrooms. There's a good foyer for strollers and shoes and your bulky park gear. We tried a SS 2-bedroom and I hated it! So cramped and laid out weird. We felt on top of each other, versus the Riviera 2-bedroom we felt like we had separate apartments! We did a regular 2-bedroom, too, not a lockoff.

I would buy at least 300 points for either RR or GF though. Both have expensive point charts. Right now you can go off season, but in another decade the kids' school schedules will dictate more trips, and those school break weeks are killer.

Totally agree. Our oldest is 10 and already there's a lot of pressure to stick to school break weeks, which cost a LOT of points. I feel like the Riviera layouts are very smart and the extra space in the entry is well-designed. The hooks just inside the front door are great for hanging ponchos, masks, park bags, etc. although the "bar" counter space in the VGF kitchen kind of does the same thing. Also with both VGF and RIV, the second bath has the split bath layout that has 2 showers, so even though you don't have 3 full BA like BLT, you do have 3 showers. My dad stayed with us in a VGF 1br (5 people) over Xmas and it was a pain having to share 1 shower with 5 people.

I just don't see how this doesn't make those 1BR's at least somewhat more difficult to book. Yes, DVC likely feels there is stronger demand for "studio" units, as seems to be borne out by the addition of these 200 "resort studios". But, as you said yourself, your hope is that "a fairly large percentage" of the new buyers will gravitate to the studios, but not all of them.

I think 1BR will either be easier or the same for booking and here's why:
Look at May/June 2022 for a week:

	2 std studios	1BR std	2BR std
points	264	282	387
# guests (up to)	10	5	9-10 (LO has more)
baths, showers, sinks of any kind	2, 4, 4	1, 1, 3	2, 3, 4-5 (LO has more)

Looking at this, if there's even some hope of connecting studios, I think there is a good case to be made that studio demand will continue to be high, and if there's any competitive pressure it will be on 2br and not 1br, which clearly seem to be the "luxury" use of points for smaller families or couples. I still think if you have teens or park commandos who don't need a kitchen, you're going to value putting a lot of people in the unit and having lots of showers and sinks to use. Toilets are just going to be a problem no matter what.

(Yes, I cherry picked a time period where a 1br cost *more* than 2 studios. But even for Xmas week, 1BR = 2 studios. I personally would not try to stick 9-10 people in 2 studios or a 2BR but for large families it's definitely an option.)

There was a study done out here in So Cal (I’ll try to find it to link) on the impact of adding HOV/carpool lanes to ease congestion on certain freeways. What the study concluded was that while the addition of new lanes (whether HOV/carpool or even just freeway widening), provided initial easing of congestion, the lure of the new lanes and the promise of a shorter and easier commute and the resulting redirection of traffic towards the improved route by commuters, actually made the “improved” route even more congested.

This also sounds like how having a FP lightning lane makes the standby lane move even slower.

 

[nuhusky123]

Yup - interesting though, that a 2br would sleep 10, as would 2 studios. I wonder what the point difference is (to get a dining area and laundry...) (sorry too lazy to look it up) I could see a family of park commandos with teens doing 2 studios, but choosing a 2br with little kids (or older people, like my dad) or for ease of laundry.


Agree 100% - especially on - you could resell if you needed to, and hopefully break even or not lose too much. In life circumstances where you'd need to resell in a hurry, I would think that I'd be more concerned about the life circumstances and less so about whether reselling my DVC is going to get me the best deal.

We own at BLT, VGF and RIV. My resale contracts are grandfathered, so all points are "unrestricted" for 7mo booking. BUT - if I only had to use my RIV points at RIV, I would be happy to do that. DH and I continually debate whether VGF or RIV is our favorite resort. Our current consensus (after having just stayed at both over Xmas/NYE): VGF is preferred for Christmas because of the decorations, RIV (standard view no less) preferred for NYE where you have a decent chance of seeing both MK AND EP fireworks. I originally thought I would pick up a resale RIV on the cheap solely for booking standard rooms at the 11mo window, because our other points are unrestricted. And ended up loving the resort so much that we didn't want to hunt and wait and compete for the "right" resale contract.


Our very first resale contract (BLT) had almost double points and we had around 300 points to play with for our first booking. That is dangerous because we immediately felt like we needed more points. And so we added on ... and on ...


That is a great way of putting it. When you put actual numbers on it, it is almost nothing. Like maybe it can function as a tiebreaker, but it should not stop you from picking one over the other based on where you actually WANT to stay.



I feel like this is setting up VGF direct to be priced a little higher - but perhaps lower than what they are now. Maybe at or just under Poly? Has someone done a poll on this? Would be interesting.


Totally agree. Our oldest is 10 and already there's a lot of pressure to stick to school break weeks, which cost a LOT of points. I feel like the Riviera layouts are very smart and the extra space in the entry is well-designed. The hooks just inside the front door are great for hanging ponchos, masks, park bags, etc. although the "bar" counter space in the VGF kitchen kind of does the same thing. Also with both VGF and RIV, the second bath has the split bath layout that has 2 showers, so even though you don't have 3 full BA like BLT, you do have 3 showers. My dad stayed with us in a VGF 1br (5 people) over Xmas and it was a pain having to share 1 shower with 5 people.


I think 1BR will either be easier or the same for booking and here's why:
Look at May/June 2022 for a week:

	2 std studios	1BR std	2BR std
points	264	282	387
# guests (up to)	10	5	9-10 (LO has more)
baths, showers, sinks of any kind	2, 4, 4	1, 1, 3	2, 3, 4-5 (LO has more)

Looking at this, if there's even some hope of connecting studios, I think there is a good case to be made that studio demand will continue to be high, and if there's any competitive pressure it will be on 2br and not 1br, which clearly seem to be the "luxury" use of points for smaller families or couples. I still think if you have teens or park commandos who don't need a kitchen, you're going to value putting a lot of people in the unit and having lots of showers and sinks to use. Toilets are just going to be a problem no matter what.

(Yes, I cherry picked a time period where a 1br cost *more* than 2 studios. But even for Xmas week, 1BR = 2 studios. I personally would not try to stick 9-10 people in 2 studios or a 2BR but for large families it's definitely an option.)



This also sounds like how having a FP lightning lane makes the standby lane move even slower.

There is a whole vgf2 pricing thread debating price