Grand CAL. How much lower will the prices drop ???

[ClaraOswald]

I saw 6 contracts this morning but now I'm just seeing 3!

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

I saw 6 contracts this morning but now I'm just seeing 3!

Wow. I'm not surprised though. The VDH announcement was pretty lackluster and disappointing. I had mild interest in adding a small contract (we already have 320 VGC points and 200 BLT points) since we've gone from loving 1 bedrooms to loving 2 bedrooms, LOL (and the 2/3 bathrooms is big for us), but the tax is a big no way. I'm not sure what my number would be on VDH, but it would be well below what they announced. I'm happy to wait and let it all unfold. I benefited by waiting a few months on VGC. I want to say I got my points in the mid to low 90s with incentives. I think they are being aggressive for an economy that is in turmoil and could slip into a recession (if we aren't there already), but maybe they think starting big they'll get all the people that are dying to own at DLR and then if the economy sinks they can adjust.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Wow. I'm not surprised though. The VDH announcement was pretty lackluster and disappointing. I had mild interest in adding a small contract (we already have 320 VGC points and 200 BLT points) since we've gone from loving 1 bedrooms to loving 2 bedrooms, LOL (and the 2/3 bathrooms is big for us), but the tax is a big no way. I'm not sure what my number would be on VDH, but it would be well below what they announced. I'm happy to wait and let it all unfold. I benefited by waiting a few months on VGC. I want to say I got my points in the mid to low 90s with incentives. I think they are being aggressive for an economy that is in turmoil and could slip into a recession (if we aren't there already), but maybe they think starting big they'll get all the people that are dying to own at DLR and then if the economy sinks they can adjust.

1) Going to a 2BD with 3 bathrooms ruined us…. I’ll just have to retire a few years later

2) Amazing purchase in 2009

3) Given that the ToT is baked into whatever VDH has to do, the building/theme/room layouts are set, estimated dues are based on actual projected costs…. what is the ppp that would get you interested? Would it realistically have to be a resale contract?

And what incentive does Disney have to start off with large incentives if they can just rent out the undeclared inventory for ridiculously high cash rates? (IMO, I think this last point makes the case against the economy being in “turmoil”).

 

[NorCalFanatic]

1) Going to a 2BD with 3 bathrooms ruined us…

Same here...with our family, it's so much easier with the 3 baths (or at least 2!) .We stayed at DLH one year and got a 1 bedroom (couldn't get a 2 bedroom), and it was one of the few with an extra half bath. We then assumed all the 1 Bedrooms had a extra half bath. Next trip booked a 1 bedroom under that assumption figuring we'd save a few bucks over a 2 bedroom and discovered, nope, only one bathroom. Not fun.

We're buying at VDH, one of the biggest deciding factors wasn't balconies, or parking, or the pool, it was whether or not the 1 bedroom has 2 baths! As the kids get older that gets to be essential!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Same here...with our family, it's so much easier with the 3 baths (or at least 2!) .We stayed at DLH one year and got a 1 bedroom (couldn't get a 2 bedroom), and it was one of the few with an extra half bath. We then assumed all the 1 Bedrooms had a extra half bath. Next trip booked a 1 bedroom under that assumption figuring we'd save a few bucks over a 2 bedroom and discovered, nope, only one bathroom. Not fun.

We're buying at VDH, one of the biggest deciding factors wasn't balconies, or parking, or the pool, it was whether or not the 1 bedroom has 2 baths! As the kids get older that gets to be essential!

The bathroom situation is a big + at VDH. I do worry about the availability of the 1 & 2 BD though. I guess that’s why the 11m is needed.

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

1) Going to a 2BD with 3 bathrooms ruined us…. I’ll just have to retire a few years later

2) Amazing purchase in 2009

3) Given that the ToT is baked into whatever VDH has to do, the building/theme/room layouts are set, estimated dues are based on actual projected costs…. what is the ppp that would get you interested? Would it realistically have to be a resale contract?

And what incentive does Disney have to start off with large incentives if they can just rent out the undeclared inventory for ridiculously high cash rates? (IMO, I think this last point makes the case against the economy being in “turmoil”).

1. Yes, we are the same way. VGC, BLT, Kidani, and maybe VDH. We are a family of 4 (kids now in 20s) and the two bathrooms enable us to use a 1 bedroom as if it were a two bedroom. We do love getting the 2 bedroom to keep the living room useable, but that's in low season when i have extra points or DD brings a guest.
2. Thanks. I am slo glad we bought when we did!
3. I was trying to think about this very question on ppp. I was expecting $217 and it would have to be discounted off of that to account for the extra 10% or so ToT tax. I will definitely be on the sidelines watching resale prices when they eventually start trickling out. I hope we escape a recession and a tumultuous economy. Big earnings week next week, and then the Fed in May to get through...

 

[boiseflyfisher]

Now there are two.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Now there are two.

One has double points, that should go soon.

This has been a fascinating time to watch VGC contracts. Anyone who purchased since December has to feel like a genius (disclosure that my wife will tell you it is her mission in life to ensure that I never feel like a genius ).

 

[boiseflyfisher]

One has double points, that should go soon.

This has been a fascinating time to watch VGC contracts. Anyone who purchased since December has to feel like a genius (disclosure that my wife will tell you it is her mission in life to ensure that I never feel like a genius ).

The people who picked them up in January, February and March were the real winners.

 

[Stank]

VGC was always a unique resort within The Club that apparently will remain unique. I just don’t like the trajectory DVC, or Disney overall, is on as a whole. If they aren’t taking for granted their members/customers, they’re misstepping repeatedly—like with new resorts. And they can’t seem to pick up obvious easy/quick wins. Reservations and annual passes are not difficult concepts to resolve, yet they appear bent on meandering and making it as convoluted as possible.

VDH never appealed to me to begin with vs. VGC. I guess never underestimate how underwhelming modern DVC management can be. I feel like executives are too disconnected/don’t care about the brand. Get people who are enthusiastic about the business vs. people in suits who bean count and commoditize a premium product with cultural significance. Get them to go incognito in the parks and live the experience vs. D’Amaro showing up to a theme park in a freaking custom suit for a photo op and superficially mingling with a handful of guests. Go stand in line, drudge through July heat for 12 hours. Get a sense of what the experience is all about vs. ivory towering it.

 

[Chili327]

You always want a low, a medium, and a high option.

AUL/VDH/VGC

Good, Better, & Best.

And now down to 2 contracts left (one is $335), you guys that picked up VGC over the last few months for under $250 really scored!!!
Now Im not sure if i should buy 50 VDH direct, or wait and hope for a small VGC contract in the near future (or even wait for VDH resale).

Never knew those apps existed, I see a few different ones, is there one you prefer, or are they all about the same?

The “DVC Calculator” is the best in my opinion, easiest to use and gives you the most info.

 

[Canchaser143]

Good, Better, & Best.

And now down to 2 contracts left (one is $335), you guys that picked up VGC over the last few months for under $250 really scored!!!
Now Im not sure if i should buy 50 VDH direct, or wait and hope for a small VGC contract in the near future (or even wait for VDH resale).




The “DVC Calculator” is the best in my opinion, easiest to use and gives you the most info.
View attachment 755390

I hate myself for not just jumping all those small VGC that existed This will be a hard pill to swallow for a while. Perhaps we will get lucky and the opportunity will present itself again!

 

[Stank]

Yeah, I wouldn’t get too worried. VGC spike was visceral panic buying. A perfect storm of anxious VDH buyers who were dealt a stinky egg all squeezed through a bottleneck of 48 hours of rushed buying. While DVC inventory ebbs and flows, I see inventory is building once again with ~2k on market. All non-Anaheim resorts are still steadily falling in price after plateauing the past 6-8 weeks.

Once the VDH anxiety wears off and people digest it, it’ll be like any other thing Disney does that people hate then internalize, adapt, and accept. Plus I still have a $100pp BLT prediction I need to come true. Looks like I’m $20-30 away. The economy continues to recede—credit is shrinking dramatically. That negatively impacts DVC resale.

 

[boiseflyfisher]

Yeah, I wouldn’t get too worried. VGC spike was visceral panic buying. A perfect storm of anxious VDH buyers who were dealt a stinky egg all squeezed through a bottleneck of 48 hours of rushed buying. While DVC inventory ebbs and flows, I see inventory is building once again with ~2k on market. All non-Anaheim resorts are still steadily falling in price after plateauing the past 6-8 weeks.

Once the VDH anxiety wears off and people digest it, it’ll be like any other thing Disney does that people hate then internalize, adapt, and accept. Plus I still have a $100pp BLT prediction I need to come true. Looks like I’m $20-30 away. The economy continues to recede—credit is shrinking dramatically. That negatively impacts DVC resale.

I'm going to disagree. Prices started dropping when VDH was announced. Now the details are out, many potential buyers have been turned off. Disney had to jump through hoops to get this project approved. If there ever is another DVC property, it will be a long time before that happens and it will be nowhere near the vicinity of VGC or VDH. The only thing that will change this is if VDH offers significant incentives.

 

[Chili327]

Yeah, I wouldn’t get too worried. VGC spike was visceral panic buying. A perfect storm of anxious VDH buyers who were dealt a stinky egg all squeezed through a bottleneck of 48 hours of rushed buying. While DVC inventory ebbs and flows, I see inventory is building once again with ~2k on market. All non-Anaheim resorts are still steadily falling in price after plateauing the past 6-8 weeks.

Once the VDH anxiety wears off and people digest it, it’ll be like any other thing Disney does that people hate then internalize, adapt, and accept. Plus I still have a $100pp BLT prediction I need to come true. Looks like I’m $20-30 away. The economy continues to recede—credit is shrinking dramatically. That negatively impacts DVC resale.

Not sure id call the last few months plateauing, but i hope you’re right and the prices come down farther over the next year.

 

[NorCalFanatic]

I’m just wondering how much more Aulani is going to drop before ROFR shows up. It’s going to be hard not to buy another 100 if it hits $80

 

[Stank]

Not sure id call the last few months plateauing, but i hope you’re right and the prices come down farther over the next year.

Stalled a better word?

Contracts shot up to almost 3k in Jan/Feb, drew down to 1.8k and prices were stabilizing/stalling/plateauing the past 6-8 weeks. Now inventory is building again and prices are starting to ease after “plateauing” for a couple months.

Maybe other people are seeing things differently, but from what I could tell the prices have been hanging stable for about 2 months, but now appear to be resuming the downward trend.

RIV I’m seeing stuff low/mid $120s. That was rather uncommon to see, and if you did, it was a lone contract. Now there are 6-8 listings any given day priced there with room for negotiation.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Not sure id call the last few months plateauing, but i hope you’re right and the prices come down farther over the next year.

I blocked that poster after all of their “the economy is Wile Coyote” posts that flooded multiple threads. I’m guessing it’s just more of the same doom and gloom.

 

[Stank]

It’s amazing what people block these days; the mildest of discourse. Oh well!

 

[Chili327]

Stalled a better word?

Contracts shot up to almost 3k in Jan/Feb, drew down to 1.8k and prices were stabilizing/stalling/plateauing the past 6-8 weeks. Now inventory is building again and prices are starting to ease after “plateauing” for a couple months.

Maybe other people are seeing things differently, but from what I could tell the prices have been hanging stable for about 2 months, but now appear to be resuming the downward trend.

RIV I’m seeing stuff low/mid $120s. That was rather uncommon to see, and if you did, it was a lone contract. Now there are 6-8 listings any given day priced there with room for negotiation.

I think the prices have been dropping for months, but maybe stabilizing now.?
Jan/Feb were the lowest in a long time, & March wasn’t bad either.
No biggie i just wasn’t sure what you meant, i thought you were saying prices were at all time highs, but maybe you meant as far as quantity of contracts available for sale.?