Grand CAL. How much lower will the prices drop ???

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

This is very true. For me though, I like the DLH rooms so much more that its worth it to just do a cash stay once in a while instead of buying in and get the rooms and theming I love.

Also, totally unfair to compare to WDW but at the same time the difference in savings is huge. For example, I'm staying at the Poly in late September with a compounded cost of $173 per night based on my buy-in prices. That same room for the same night costs $767 after taxes to buy cash. And to make that a little more shocking, poly was my blue card buy in at $235, so when factoring in both of my contracts my average price was a whopping 203pp. Based on say, the Kriegers' recent contract, that $173 would be just $154. When people are used to those kind of savings, it's tough to swallow $300 per night (PV studio) versus $500 per night (deluxe view at DLH) after taxes and fees, which is a real life comparison on an upcoming couple of nights I'm staying at DLH that were booked with MK discount.

But yes, in the long game that differential will grow and that purchase will look better. As for me, I'm thrilled that like some others, I was able to redirect my VDH funds to more VGC points!!

Excellent point— the savings v rack rate are even more dramatic at Aulani. We used 35 points for an island view 1bd….it allowed us to cancel two Marriott rooms next door at a total cost of $1300, just one room was $650. That would put the dollar equivalent of those points (for us personally) at about $37/pt to save one night at the Marriott, because we need a second room. The cash rate for our exact Villa that night is $949– so $27/pt, not counting any DVC owner perks. Not sure I see the VDH gap approaching that regularly at any time in the next decade.

ETA, we recently bought Aulani direct around $173/pt.

 

[Stank]

There has to be a point where regular rack rates slow down. That's the big unknown.

Yeah, we’re there. Disneyland is an odd-ball because I don’t think they even sell park passes >5 days? So Disneyland is a unique situation given most people on vacation spend 2-3 maaaaaybe 4 days there. WDW is a solid week or more.

WDW rack rates are absolutely at their limit. You’re in the zone where a vacation is the cost of a nice used car/credit limit on credit cards. $10K is a big chunk of change for a week. Looking at an advertisement from whenever that was—the 50s or early 60s is a bit misleading. Gold standard—money went a lot farther everywhere so $10-20 for a hotel room was quite a bit of money given gold was $35/oz then and today it’s $2000/oz.

If rack rates hit $1500/night, you’re in a world where prices are 2-3x for everything else. Essentially, the room rate is flat or down in real terms. We truly saw the top to real rack rates some time in the past 1-2 years. A Disney vacation gets into the realm of not vacation vs. a different vacation, but a Disney vacation vs. a car. There’s so much value elsewhere that’s precisely why rack rates in real terms cannot go higher. People won’t fork over $10-15k for a week’s standard accommodation at Contemporary. You’re in Fantasyland at that point. That’s why I think the differential between DVC vs. hotel isn’t as great as people think because we came from a world where DVC was cheap up until 5 years ago and had this surge combined with hotel rates skyrocketing. Now DVC is sky-high Direct with hotel rates coming down.

 

[pirate33]

Yea more contracts will start popping up (w/ the current hype), and prices will come back down soon enough.

Uh, care to share your reasoning? As for me, I intend to hold my contracts indefinitely. I remember being ambivalent about my second VGC resale contract at around $125/pt. Seems crazy now! (This was about 10 years ago.)

 

[AZMermaid]

Uh, care to share your reasoning? As for me, I intend to hold my contracts indefinitely. I remember being ambivalent about my second VGC resale contract at around $125/pt. Seems crazy now! (This was about 10 years ago.)

That’s about when we bought too! I remember being so discouraged that it was so high . Now I’m wishing we’d have bought about 50 mor points!

 

[KalamityJane]

I’m curious to see how Disneyland Forward affects resale prices for VDH, as it will make VDH just as close to the parks as VGC and lower the edge that VGC has there.

 

[elenex]

I’m curious to see how Disneyland Forward affects resale prices for VDH, as it will make VDH just as close to the parks as VGC and lower the edge that VGC has there.

And on that note, how long until we hear about the Villas at Pixar Pier?

 

[ClaraOswald]

If VDH sells well...I could definitely see Villas of Pixar Pier in the future!

 

[AstroBlasters]

If VDH sells well...I could definitely see Villas of Pixar Pier in the future!

They have theme park views views of DCA and a “private” entrance to DCA.

No reason they couldn’t except for regulatory red tape.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I wonder if they'd build a new tower or just convert current hotel rooms for it.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Should we now change the title of this thread to “How high prices could rise?”

 

[CaliAdventurer]

10-15 years from now, VDH will seem like a great deal when rack rates are pushing $1500/nt and the good neighbor hotels are $800+, not including taxes and parking

This is a great point. Youre buying those pts for 50 years!! And tbh, now that I’ve been educated into the taxes, I would prefer them not in my dues (at the rate as high as VDH are) because I often gift rooms to others or trade into Florida. It makes sense that the staying guest pays that. Parking, ugh I’d be lying if I said I didn't valet anyway (each time promising myself that I’ll move it tomorrow) but thats harsh to pay parking on top. My point, VDH isn’t sounding so bad to me anymore and with your point, Maaayyyybe…

 

[AstroBlasters]

Why did you have to point this out? Now I'm scheming about whether or not I could make the use year work. hmmm

This is the way!

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I need a meme with Bart Simpson and the chalkboard that says “I will not buy VGC points until I close on my VGF points” over and over and over.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I need a meme with Bart Simpson and the chalkboard that says “I will not buy VGC points until I close on my VGF points” over and over and over.

The good news is if you wait a day or two it will be gone!

 

[BlueIsis]

I need a meme with Bart Simpson and the chalkboard that says “I will not buy VGC points until I close on my VGF points” over and over and over.

Same...I have several pending contracts at this point. Need to stop the madness!

 

[MartyParty]

We are in a safe space here… not like those hooligans on the SSR threads .

I use the DVC Calculator app in the Apple App Store and put in my travel dates and it shows me what the 7m and 11m windows are. You also put in what resort, what accommodation size, and the view type and it shows you how many points you need.

I like that I can pull it up at any time without having to log into something or access the web

Another good find. Thanks AstroBlasters!

 

[Sandisw]

There seems to still be some confusion regarding the rules about posting contracts that are For Sale. So, its time to close this thread down.