Grand CAL. How much lower will the prices drop ???

[Stank]

I think the prices have been dropping for months, but maybe stabilizing now.?
Jan/Feb were the lowest in a long time, & March wasn’t bad either.
No biggie i just wasn’t sure what you meant, i thought you were saying prices were at all time highs, but maybe you meant as far as quantity of contracts available for sale.?

Ah, I think we’re saying the similar things as I agree with that. By “plateau” I meant the decline leveled off/stabilized, but is now re-accelerating. I can see where “plateau” can be defined as staying stubbornly high. I should pick less ambiguous words….

Onward to better (buyer) prices

 

[ClaraOswald]

I feel like comparing the FL DVC resort price trends to CA DVC is kind of a waste of time since it's just a completely different ball game.

 

[boiseflyfisher]

The 200 point contract is pending, so that leaves the 100 point contract at $330.

 

[elenex]

The 200 point contract is pending, so that leaves the 100 point contract at $330.

One contract left on the market with an extremely unpleasant agent who misleads and ignores you, and a seller who declines full asking offers and instead raises his or her price on a whim. Good freaking luck to whoever bids on this one.

 

[boiseflyfisher]

I feel like comparing the FL DVC resort price trends to CA DVC is kind of a waste of time since it's just a completely different ball game.

I agree. The only thing it has in common with the other resorts I have never seen a time where there is just one single listing available.

One contract left on the market with an extremely unpleasant agent who misleads and ignores you, and a seller who declines full asking offers and instead raises his or her price on a whim. Good freaking luck to whoever bids on this one.

Sounds like that one is just going to sit there. If VGC owners were wanting to sell, now would be a prime time. I'd expect a few more to pop up next week and probably go as quickly as they come, especially if they are pricing at around or below $280.

 

[Chili327]

One contract left on the market with an extremely unpleasant agent who misleads and ignores you, and a seller who declines full asking offers and instead raises his or her price on a whim. Good freaking luck to whoever bids on this one.

Yea more contracts will start popping up (w/ the current hype), and prices will come back down soon enough.

 

[nalabear]

VGC - anything <$290 will sell now with the known VDH specifics. The math works out for anything <$310 is better VGC for DLR stays.

One can argue offsite stays, but if you're using either VDH or VGC off-site - not really invested in numbers already and in the 'take my money' camp.

 

[AC168]

I wouldn’t be totally surprised if the $335 sold this month also. I need my VGC contract … if I didn’t, I’d think about putting mine up for sale for $400.

$4 diff in annual dues is a lot. They probably didn’t include taxes and parking because $12 MF would be a big shock / deterrent to buying for many people.

 

[DonMacGregor]

$4 diff in annual dues is a lot. They probably didn’t include taxes and parking because $12 MF would be a big shock / deterrent to buying for many people.

I dunno about that. I think there would have been grumbling, and the usual "damn California" gripes, balanced out by some "well, it's new" and "it's the first DVC in Anaheim since VGC" and "you really can't compare it to WDW resorts" rationalization, and "the MF's are always set too high so give it a few years and it will be on-par with other resorts" argument. Eventually, "it's still less than Vero Beach" (however a stretch that might be) would win out and things would calm down.

 

[Nonsuch]

It’s amazing what people block these days; the mildest of discourse. Oh well!

The ease of blocking is a major feature of this board, and implemented the way I prefer.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I dunno about that. I think there would have been grumbling, and the usual "damn California" gripes, balanced out by some "well, it's new" and "it's the first DVC in Anaheim since VGC" and "you really can't compare it to WDW resorts" rationalization, and "the MF's are always set too high so give it a few years and it will be on-par with other resorts" argument. Eventually, "it's still less than Vero Beach" (however a stretch that might be) would win out and things would calm down.

10-15 years from now, VDH will seem like a great deal when rack rates are pushing $1500/nt and the good neighbor hotels are $800+, not including taxes and parking

 

[AstroBlasters]

10-15 years from now, VDH will seem like a great deal when rack rates are pushing $1500/nt and the good neighbor hotels are $800+, not including taxes and parking

http://www.magicalhotel.com/index.html

 

[GoingSince1990]

http://www.magicalhotel.com/index.html

Love the room rates, not that impressed by the “large screen television”!

 

[DonMacGregor]

Love the room rates, not that impressed by the “large screen television”!

The Hotel we grew up with...

 

[NVDISFamily]

What a crazy week for sure. Started out with some hope and excitement about VGC and VDH with us even having some fun chatting with the guides at the grand cal and the booths. The luster on VDH took a rapid nosedive off a cliff with the bad news on the dues and taxes early in the week.

I’ve been a bit busy with stuff but I’ve wanted to share a thought I’ve had in my head for the last few days. An adaptation of a quote -

The reports of the demise of VGC have been greatly exaggerated.


I didn’t even walk over to check out VDH which was on my to do list….

 

[elenex]

10-15 years from now, VDH will seem like a great deal when rack rates are pushing $1500/nt and the good neighbor hotels are $800+, not including taxes and parking

This is very true. For me though, I like the DLH rooms so much more that its worth it to just do a cash stay once in a while instead of buying in and get the rooms and theming I love.

Also, totally unfair to compare to WDW but at the same time the difference in savings is huge. For example, I'm staying at the Poly in late September with a compounded cost of $173 per night based on my buy-in prices. That same room for the same night costs $767 after taxes to buy cash. And to make that a little more shocking, poly was my blue card buy in at $235, so when factoring in both of my contracts my average price was a whopping 203pp. Based on say, the Kriegers' recent contract, that $173 would be just $154. When people are used to those kind of savings, it's tough to swallow $300 per night (PV studio) versus $500 per night (deluxe view at DLH) after taxes and fees, which is a real life comparison on an upcoming couple of nights I'm staying at DLH that were booked with MK discount.

But yes, in the long game that differential will grow and that purchase will look better. As for me, I'm thrilled that like some others, I was able to redirect my VDH funds to more VGC points!!

 

[AstroBlasters]

What a crazy week for sure. Started out with some hope and excitement about VGC and VDH with us even having some fun chatting with the guides at the grand cal and the booths. The luster on VDH took a rapid nosedive off a cliff with the bad news on the dues and taxes early in the week.

I’ve been a bit busy with stuff but I’ve wanted to share a thought I’ve had in my head for the last few days. An adaptation of a quote -

The reports of the demise of VGC have been greatly exaggerated.


I didn’t even walk over to check out VDH which was on my to do list….

Wow, quite the mental shift.

You were pretty geared up for the Grand Villa…Was it the ToT, ppp, potential parking fee, initial dues?

 

[New Mouse]

10-15 years from now, VDH will seem like a great deal when rack rates are pushing $1500/nt and the good neighbor hotels are $800+, not including taxes and parking

There has to be a point where regular rack rates slow down. That's the big unknown.

 

[ajiuo]

I think that the run-up in VGC prices is an over-reaction to the VDH news. I also think the drop down to $225 and increased inventory was also partially due to people waiting for VDH points chart. So my prediction is that we will settle into the $240-250pp range in the next 3-4 months.

It does make me sad I passed on August add-on @ 225, since I was holding out for Sept. I only have 180 points which is not quite enough to cover my expected yearly usage, but I have ~3 years before I use up all of the banked points.

Although, the $3 in extra ToT and MF means equates a $100 price difference pp between VDH and VGC, so based on that you can argue VGC could be worth $330 today. But once VDH resale comes on at ~150-160 pp in a couple of years you are back to that ~250 pp.

I think it’s more than just the taxes. Grand Californian is a better resort for a lot of reasons.

- It’s the most conveniently located DVC resort, anywhere.
- It’s the most exclusive DVC resort.
- It’s the only DVC resort located in a park.
- All rooms have patios, VDH does not.
- After 2024 rooms will be slightly more updated than VDH.
- It’s much more grand and has more amenities than VDH.
- No resale restrictions
- Yes the tax is built in to dues witch makes it a bit more magical.
- Includes parking.
- Better views from the rooms.

VGC is just a better resort all around. Even Disney has the price set higher than VDH… I would not expect resale prices to drop below VDH. I predict it settles between 170-310 during the recession… goes up above 310 after. This is the only resort that could feasibly go above direct pricing.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

There has to be a point where regular rack rates slow down. That's the big unknown.

Why would rack rates slow down? It has never happened. Especially not in DLR where there’s only 3 properties