Coronavirus and DVC prices

[chainkid]

Disney itself will hold the line, but who cares.

Winter is coming. Boomers seeing their 401Ks wiped out and going to be unloading these contracts. I'll be ready to buy.

I'm A BOOMER but have no intention of selling. My contracts are worth their weight in gold to me. I paid cash for them when prices were really low and have more than earned back what I paid. Stock market has crashed before but it always comes back. I still work so not drawing down savings. A lot of boomers like myself have no desire to retire and do not panic by down turns caused by external factors we can't control. We have seen it happen before. I think the young people who have to pay a month mortgage and other expenses would more likely be ones forced to sell. My position now is much more solid than when I was young and had a family to raise. I suspect it would be same for a lot of Boomers .

 

[TraderSamWDW]

I can't believe the joy taken by some on this thread about ppl having their nest eggs beaten down so they can get a good deal on dvc.

 

[CarolynFH]

My wife and I just bought into the Riviera last week.
Our CM who gave us the tour said that prices are likely to increase to $198 pp soon.

If you’re still in the 10 day rescission period, you might consider rescinding and waiting to see what incentives look like a few months from now. The list price might be $198 pp but incentives might bring it lower than what you just paid. Incentives during the Great Recession were amazing.

 

[ELMC]

A message board of people salivating prematurely at the prospect of a drop in prices would seem to indicate that they won't / can't drop very far.

Great deals are had on things nobody is thinking about, let alone fervently and in advance of any changes yet to pricing at all.

True, except something tells me that if recession hits and owners choose to sell, there will be many more contracts for sale than the few on here could manage to buy.

People are salivating because they haven’t felt the economic bite themselves. This attitude will be very different in a month for many.

This is very true. I think that the number of us thinking we would buy now will likely decrease over time.

I can't believe the joy taken by some on this thread about ppl having their nest eggs beaten down so they can get a good deal on dvc.

Please, don't do this. Nobody is taking joy in people having their nest eggs beaten down so we can get a good deal on DVC. We are talking in theory about how the current financial situation could impact future pricing and how we would react. We have all said on here in the past that we feel badly for anyone who feels forced to sell. Additionally, speaking for myself, I have also had my nest egg beaten down over the past two weeks. That doesn't change the context of this conversation. So please take your ad hominem attacks elsewhere.

 

[MICKIMINI]

It seems very premature to think DVC sales are going to be 10/20...50% off , pending longer term economic effects.

if there is a ton of job loss, and extended market declines - for those not affected, fine, but lets not forget DVC bargains may come at the expense of others misfortunes

With all due respect, spending money IS what keep our economy turning. Sellers may desperately need the funds from a sale and it is unethical of any real estate agent to discuss why someone is selling anyway. No one can judge why someone is selling, nor what their profit or loss will be so to say that "bargains may come at the expense of others misfortunes" is suggesting you may DEPRIVE someone of money they need to pay other bills - by NOT buying a contact. There is no "joy" in a downturn in the economy. We've bought and sold many contracts since 1996 and it's nobody's business why we bought and sold.

Let's not judge people's choices to spend their hard earned money, please. If people need to sell, let us hope that there are people with money in their pocket - to buy! Be well.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

True, except something tells me that if recession hits and owners choose to sell, there will be many more contracts for sale than the few on here could manage to buy.

This is very true. I think that the number of us thinking we would buy now will likely decrease over time.

Please, don't do this. Nobody is taking joy in people having their nest eggs beaten down so we can get a good deal on DVC. We are talking in theory about how the current financial situation could impact future pricing and how we would react. We have all said on here in the past that we feel badly for anyone who feels forced to sell. Additionally, speaking for myself, I have also had my nest egg beaten down over the past two weeks. That doesn't change the context of this conversation. So please take your ad hominem attacks elsewhere.

Can that not be done without singling out ppl who were or are near retirement?

 

[RoseGold]

My wife and I just bought into the Riviera last week.
Our CM who gave us the tour said that prices are likely to increase to $198 pp soon.

Please think hard about using the recession time if you are having doubts. Don't listen to their garbage buy now. This is not going anywhere. You can always buy back in. The resale market is about to shift dramatically in a few months.

 

[poofyo101]

Please think hard about using the recession time if you are having doubts. Don't listen to their garbage buy now. This is not going anywhere. You can always buy back in. The resale market is about to shift dramatically in a few months.

I agree. I would rescind it and just wait it out. higher chance of you coming out better than coming out worse.

 

[ELMC]

Can that not be done without singling out ppl who were or are near retirement?

This feels a lot like trolling, but I'll assume for a second you are being sincere and I'll engage in an honest discourse around the topic. As was said by a previous poster, we have absolutely no knowledge of who the seller is, why they are selling, or what the financial impact of their sale will be. Nor will we ever. So it does not make sense to speculate on any of those variables because we simply don't know. What we do know, and what we can talk about, is the DVC resale market itself and how current and future events might impact that and, by extension, how we would behave in a variety of different scenarios.

This is no different than the stock market. Someone who bought a share of Disney stock today at $95 is buying from someone else. We will never know if that person bought that share of stock in 2010 and is making a killing or if they bought it last year and they're taking a beating. We don't know if they're selling because they want out of the market or because they are losing their home or any of the reasons in between. Quite frankly, it's irrelevant. We don't talk about the impact of the person who sold the share, we can only talk about the details of the purchase. Do we think it was a good buy, do we think one overpaid, what do we think the long term outlook is, etc.

So...to that end, your characterization that we are finding joy in other people's misfortunes is an inaccurate and inflammatory personal attack. I get that it's status quo for this terrible place we call the internet, but it doesn't mean I'm not going to call it out when I see it.

The bottom line is that we are engaging in a theoretical conversation regarding DVC prices and the economy at large and you painted us as a bunch of ghouls preying on the misfortune of others. It's not ok to do that.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

This feels a lot like trolling, but I'll assume for a second you are being sincere and I'll engage in an honest discourse around the topic. As was said by a previous poster, we have absolutely no knowledge of who the seller is, why they are selling, or what the financial impact of their sale will be. Nor will we ever. So it does not make sense to speculate on any of those variables because we simply don't know. What we do know, and what we can talk about, is the DVC resale market itself and how current and future events might impact that and, by extension, how we would behave in a variety of different scenarios.

This is no different than the stock market. Someone who bought a share of Disney stock today at $95 is buying from someone else. We will never know if that person bought that share of stock in 2010 and is making a killing or if they bought it last year and they're taking a beating. We don't know if they're selling because they want out of the market or because they are losing their home or any of the reasons in between. Quite frankly, it's irrelevant. We don't talk about the impact of the person who sold the share, we can only talk about the details of the purchase. Do we think it was a good buy, do we think one overpaid, what do we think the long term outlook is, etc.

So...to that end, your characterization that we are finding joy in other people's misfortunes is an inaccurate and inflammatory personal attack. I get that it's status quo for this terrible place we call the internet, but it doesn't mean I'm not going to call it out when I see it.

The bottom line is that we are engaging in a theoretical conversation regarding DVC prices and the economy at large and you painted us as a bunch of ghouls preying on the misfortune of others. It's not ok to do that.

I was not calling out everyone.
However "boomer whose 401k tanked" sounds like speculating as to why a contract was being sold, and I thought it was in poor taste.

It sounded opportunistic towards people who have worked long and hard

 

[DVC Doctor]

My prediction

Direct sales DVC prices will hold firm and they will INCREASE incentives for new sales
If you are in a rescission period, I would cancel and wait a month or two

Resale DVC prices will soon begin to drop, slow at first, then accelerate when the recession hits and around November or so, when annual dues statements go out, I would expect priced to drop again. Once tons of people decide to sell, then prices will go down again. I suspect they will stabilize by March 2021

If you are buying - I would HOLD out for better deals
If you are considering selling - I would list for sale ASAP

 

[RanDIZ]

My wife and I just bought into the Riviera last week.
Our CM who gave us the tour said that prices are likely to increase to $198 pp soon.

That’s called a sales pitch. Disney raising pricing to people losing jobs left and right does not make sense.

 

[MICKIMINI]

That’s called a sales pitch. Disney raising pricing to people losing jobs left and right does not make sense.

Those Disney sales people are doing their jobs. If you have never been in high end sales, it is hard to imagine working on commission in this type of crisis. I've been there... They too are trying to put food on the table so let's not demonize the CM's that sell DVC. Be well.

 

[GCorbett]

A reduction in prices is not necessarily the result of sellers falling on desparate times, it also is the result of fewer buyers. I would imagine that the latter is pretty likely, if only because when things such as pandemics happen, folks are a little less likely to shell out for vacation interests.

 

[mustinjourney]

In the last down turn for DVC resale prices I didn't remember seeing a lot of people saying they wanted to buy when the prices got low. I remember I was only in 1 bidding war on a contract back then, so there weren't a lot of buyers. This time I see a lot of people wanting to get a "nice cheap" contract. This should provide a higher floor than most are hoping for.

people are also saying that now. The proverbial **** has not hit the fan just yet.

 

[Aussie RJ]

people are also saying that now. The proverbial **** has not hit the fan just yet.

Completely agree. Without a cure this virus isn't going anywhere. Its still 80-85 degrees here and the virus is spreading like wildfire. Hold on to your hats, rescind direct offers if still possible and watch this space.

 

[sethschroeder]

People are salivating because they haven’t felt the economic bite themselves. This attitude will be very different in a month for many.

Depends on who you are or what your situation is. You are right though many people can't predict what might happen.

I can't believe the joy taken by some on this thread about ppl having their nest eggs beaten down so they can get a good deal on dvc.

Can that not be done without singling out ppl who were or are near retirement?

Except those nearing retirement should be playing this more conservatively. While those of us much younger feel the markets will likely bounce back like normal long before we get to retirement.

As an example a Fidelity 2025 Target retirement account is down 15% so far this year vs 25% the S&P is down. YOY its down 8% and its up 19% over 3 years.

So even if people are thinking about possibly getting a better deal on DVC as "looking on the bright side of things" its not like whole retirements would be ruined.

On top of that there has been warning signs since last year about potential correction and a recession. So it also is not completely out of the blue.

Would crazy good markets be great? Sure but we are where we are.

 

[Mumof4mice]

I was not calling out everyone.
However "boomer whose 401k tanked" sounds like speculating as to why a contract was being sold, and I thought it was in poor taste.

It sounded opportunistic towards people who have worked long and hard

Boomers make up 20% percent of the population and own 60% of assets (ballpark figures). They are financially best placed to buy, enjoy, and take a bath selling luxury items without hardship. Bestow sympathy on some other, more persecuted group, if you must.

 

[heynowirv]

How were prices affected during the downturn in 07-09? Thats the closest analogy that I can think of in recent memory... That being said, I hope this bump in the road doesn't become a full-on recession

We bought in 2008 during that recession and prices had dropped.Our first contract was 190 points OKW for 72PP.

 

[zavandor]

We bought in 2008 during that recession and prices had dropped.Our first contract was 190 points OKW for 72PP.

That was a good price, but three years later, OKW was being sold for $50pp. It takes time for the resale market to react to new market conditions.
Unfortunately I don't think this emergency will finish until we have a vaccine. It is thought that in Italy in mid January one single person infected a dozen people in 3 small towns that combined have less than 20k people. Now the whole country is in lockdown. That's how little it takes, imagine what one person could do at WDW, standing in line, sitting in a show, touching the rides seats and protections.