Coronavirus and DVC prices

[RanDIZ]

How is your 401k or stock portfolio doing right now? I would bet its down more than DVC is. On top of that I bet you can still rent out to get money from your DVC like you always have. DOW is down 30% and S&P is down 25%.


Portfolio down about 10% mainly because I hedged with gold and I’m well diversified. My DVC is fairly new so I’m about even at this point. Once operations start back up, people are gonna flock back to Disney like they always have. People can’t afford to pay bills but somehow can always afford Disney.

 

[PSUDinsey]

How much of a reduction in resale prices until you guys jump back in? I would like to grab copper creek- 10% 20% less?

 

[RanDIZ]

20%+ for me.

 

[Sandisw]

Well, I am hoping to buy BLT in the next month, as soon as the contract I am selling goes for ROFR and I know what is happening with that,

So, I am hoping it will be down a little bit! I think I got my offer just in time!

 

[sethschroeder]

How much of a reduction in resale prices until you guys jump back in? I would like to grab copper creek- 10% 20% less?

I think the better way to look at it is when in the cycle. I think the best time likely will be as we are coming out of all the shutdowns unless you feel there is going to be a general market collapse.

As far as how far DVC could fall? No real idea could be very little or could be a good amount depends on how large of impact this causes.

One thing to keep in mind is likely lots of DVC owners are possibly less impacted. Many will be able to work from home and stock markets while down are really only set back 3.5 years at this point vs in 2007 when you were set back 12 years to 1995 to find the market at that level, and I believe most businesses view this as a "fluke" as opposed to some serious economic downturn which would curb their spending and growth habits. Plus this president like the previous one has zero issues pushing debt if it helps keep the economy strong and growing.

 

[ScubaCat]

And the next question is, do I get a discount on my Extra Innings through DirecTV since there isn't any baseball to even watch.

Nah, they charge extra for it when this happens.

 

[DougEMG]

In the last down turn for DVC resale prices I didn't remember seeing a lot of people saying they wanted to buy when the prices got low. I remember I was only in 1 bidding war on a contract back then, so there weren't a lot of buyers. This time I see a lot of people wanting to get a "nice cheap" contract. This should provide a higher floor than most are hoping for.

 

[Craigster38]

My wife and I just bought into the Riviera last week.
Our CM who gave us the tour said that prices are likely to increase to $198 pp soon.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

My wife and I just bought into the Riviera last week.
Our CM who gave us the tour said that prices are likely to increase to $198 pp soon.

Due to recent events, and the unknowns around when Disney reopens, I'm kind of thinking any price increases will be on hold for a bit.

 

[Coffee66]

Due to recent events, and the unknowns around when Disney reopens, I'm kind of thinking any price increases will be on hold for a bit.

Due to recent events, and the unknowns around when Disney reopens, I'm kind of thinking any price increases will be on hold for a bit.

My thoughts, the last thing are price increases and people buying or renting points. Who knows when this ends

 

[zavandor]

In the last down turn for DVC resale prices I didn't remember seeing a lot of people saying they wanted to buy when the prices got low. I remember I was only in 1 bidding war on a contract back then, so there weren't a lot of buyers. This time I see a lot of people wanting to get a "nice cheap" contract. This should provide a higher floor than most are hoping for.

The reason is that we're not in a recession yet.
Markets crashed in 2008 and in 2012 I bought SSR for $50 and BWV was being sold at $58.
If this pandemic, and its consequences, are going to last 4 years, there'll be much fewer people looking for 50 years of expensive prepaid vacations.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Buyers have 10 days to back out, I believe. I wonder how many direct buyers have done so? There won't be any direct increases while parks and resorts are closed and as that just wouldn't be "good show" for Disney...and, they really can't scream, SALE, SALE yet either as that would be insensitive. Those in DVC marketing have to take the bull by the horns as they say and find a message for when the sun comes out again and it will.

Resales on the other hand will decline based on sellers financial conditions and unknown competition for purchasing contracts. Contracts that have been listed for some time at top price and those already "reduced" will take a big hit and linger while buyers snap up competitive resales "just listed". It will take awhile for buyers and sellers to reconcile prices so buyers need to be dedicated to saying "next" and moving on if their offer is rejected.

With so many unique resorts available in all sizes there should be something for everyone who has the cash or credit (not advisable IMHO) to dive in. We've been looking to buy more contracts and will wait and watch listings at resort(s) we love but don't own and only stay at when we get a 7 month opportunity. Having the 11 month option with small contracts for split stays will be a great long term addition for us as we have plenty of points for longer stays or bigger villas for us and son and DIL.

My gym is closed, I'm home like everyone else, only spending money on TP and bleach so what else is there to do?

 

[RaymOOOnd]

In the last down turn for DVC resale prices I didn't remember seeing a lot of people saying they wanted to buy when the prices got low. I remember I was only in 1 bidding war on a contract back then, so there weren't a lot of buyers. This time I see a lot of people wanting to get a "nice cheap" contract. This should provide a higher floor than most are hoping for.

A message board of people salivating prematurely at the prospect of a drop in prices would seem to indicate that they won't / can't drop very far.

Great deals are had on things nobody is thinking about, let alone fervently and in advance of any changes yet to pricing at all.

 

[Brianstl]

A message board of people salivating prematurely at the prospect of a drop in prices would seem to indicate that they won't / can't drop very far.

Great deals are had on things nobody is thinking about, let alone fervently and in advance of any changes yet to pricing at all.

People are salivating because they haven’t felt the economic bite themselves. This attitude will be very different in a month for many.

 

[poofyo101]

My wife and I just bought into the Riviera last week.
Our CM who gave us the tour said that prices are likely to increase to $198 pp soon.

I would have put it on hold and see what happens in the coming weeks.

 

[Pluto777]

Markets are funny, always hard to predict

 

[Lumpy1106]

Let me throw in another very real variable; air travel. The airlines are near shut-down right now - how many will be back? How many flights? The vast majority of DVC'ers rely on air travel to use their DVC.

 

[Hieraxx]

It seems very premature to think DVC sales are going to be 10/20...50% off , pending longer term economic effects.

if there is a ton of job loss, and extended market declines - for those not affected, fine, but lets not forget DVC bargains may come at the expense of others misfortunes

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Market prices are not a "sad situation." DIS stock is down 20%, way more next week. I'm sure you'd feel no moral implications to buying stock at market value.

The whole market is down 20%. It makes sense that DVC should follow.

Dvc is not bought and sold by institutions using trading algorithms.

 

[Deb & Bill]

...My gym is closed, I'm home like everyone else, only spending money on TP and bleach so what else is there to do?

Make guesses on TP and bleach futures? That may be the new investment to make.