Budshark
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 13, 2007
Now I can say you did disregard a factor
The per point MF profit from DVC year over year.
Using your numbers and a swag at averaging... a studio BCV for an average of 20 pts/night for 335 nights a year would earn Disney $31,000 in MF.
So if Disney "nets" 100K/yr for renting - and we subtract 31K/yr for DVC MF - it takes a bit longer to "recover" the initial DVC surge in investment through renting (~7 years). (I'm assuming a 500,000 net because your subtraction for the DVC marketing is a bit unfair since you did not provide an equal "marketing" overhead for the renting side of the business). And again - like you said this is a complex equation, because that "surge" of investment buy-in for DVC generates returns for Disney through other investments, growth, etc.
Also, this is just keeping the numbers consistent. The sell-rate for all points a popular DVC resort is actually closer to the 95-98%. The occupancy rate is irrelevant. The hotel rooms could sit empty - but the points have still been sold. In addition as mentioned above - a DVC resort is particularly resilient to economic downturns and other concerns. This is of prime importance to the hotel industry after 2001 (building a base guaranteed cash flow).
Again - interesting discussion but its all based on trying to "guess" what Disney is going to do with a piece of property...
And the best part is - they've already decided what to do - they're probably just watching to see what theories we can conjure up!
The per point MF profit from DVC year over year.
Using your numbers and a swag at averaging... a studio BCV for an average of 20 pts/night for 335 nights a year would earn Disney $31,000 in MF.
So if Disney "nets" 100K/yr for renting - and we subtract 31K/yr for DVC MF - it takes a bit longer to "recover" the initial DVC surge in investment through renting (~7 years). (I'm assuming a 500,000 net because your subtraction for the DVC marketing is a bit unfair since you did not provide an equal "marketing" overhead for the renting side of the business). And again - like you said this is a complex equation, because that "surge" of investment buy-in for DVC generates returns for Disney through other investments, growth, etc.
Also, this is just keeping the numbers consistent. The sell-rate for all points a popular DVC resort is actually closer to the 95-98%. The occupancy rate is irrelevant. The hotel rooms could sit empty - but the points have still been sold. In addition as mentioned above - a DVC resort is particularly resilient to economic downturns and other concerns. This is of prime importance to the hotel industry after 2001 (building a base guaranteed cash flow).
Again - interesting discussion but its all based on trying to "guess" what Disney is going to do with a piece of property...
And the best part is - they've already decided what to do - they're probably just watching to see what theories we can conjure up!