HURRICANE DENNIS (latest info edited into first post on Page 1)

[lllovell]

here here Wordzy!

I am sure you will all be fine and look at it this way, if the storms don't hit, but come close enough, they will run off a LOT of people and you will have a much nicer "peak" time trip! If the storms do come, the next day the weather will be beautiful and you will be in the parks all day having the time of your life with hardly anyone there.

We were there during errrrrr nuts - can't remember which one now...but one of last years hurricanes and I could not believe how amazing the parks looked the day after the storm. The ONLY sign of the hurricane was the leaves and debris in the parking lots. The parks themselves were incredibly clean. I was in awe of the great Disney Magic for sure!

Have fun on your trips!

 

[bonzarella]

lllovell thanks for the glimmer of hope for those of us heading down this weekend. Didn't think of all the positives that may come. Thanks to all who answered my question.

 

[PVA]

Thanks for the positive thoughts. Once we're in BWVs, no problem! Unfortunately, we have to visit family down in Sarasota the first two days...right at the height of this thing. Oh well, beats work and in the last four straight July trips down we've had great weather, so had to happen and we'll look at the bright side. Good luck to everyone else who's headed down... hope to meet some of you at the Pleasure Island block party on Tuesday night... RAIN OR SHINE!!!

 

[RayJay]

I am sure you will all be fine and look at it this way, if the storms don't hit, but come close enough, they will run off a LOT of people and you will have a much nicer "peak" time trip! If the storms do come, the next day the weather will be beautiful and you will be in the parks all day having the time of your life with hardly anyone there.

You know I did think about this, wonder if the crowds would quiet down some or is it wishful thinking.

RayJay

 

[RayJay]

Yeah...but you're counting, aren't you?

Ahhh, you got me Jim, I've been counting all year, July, Aug, Jan, Oct, doesn't really matter. Anticipation of going is the best part.

I'm going to Disney World, Whaaaaa Whoooooo!!!

See ya
RayJay

 

[JimMIA]

I am sure you will all be fine and look at it this way, if the storms don't hit, but come close enough, they will run off a LOT of people and you will have a much nicer "peak" time trip! If the storms do come, the next day the weather will be beautiful and you will be in the parks all day having the time of your life with hardly anyone there.

And if the projections hold, this is exactly the scenario you will have. You'll have crummy weather on Sunday, but it won't be awful -- probably just breezy with a decreasing number of minor squall lines flowing through. Nothing that would keep a DVCer out of the parks...unless you have tropical storm winds and they close the theme parks. The Florida residents who would normally flood the parks on the weekends will stay home, so there will be a lot fewer people on Sunday, and probably for a couple of days after.

 

[idratherbeinwdw]

And if the projections hold, this is exactly the scenario you will have. You'll have crummy weather on Sunday, but it won't be awful -- probably just breezy with a decreasing number of minor squall lines flowing through. Nothing that would keep a DVCer out of the parks...unless you have tropical storm winds and they close the theme parks. The Florida residents who would normally flood the parks on the weekends will stay home, so there will be a lot fewer people on Sunday, and probably for a couple of days after.

Right you are (and lllovell too!) I was lucky enough to go when Ivan was supposed to hit, but he took a left turn and went waaaay west at the last minute. Didn't rain once when I was there.

No one knew what was going to happen until it happened of course--storms are like that. I went on the boards to see what others were planning. There was all sorts of hand wringing, and many folks didn't want to chance it so they cancelled. My feeling was, as long as I could GET there, I'd be OK. WDW builds it's resorts to withstand this sort of storm. In fact, as reported here during that time, there are some families will actually leave their homes and go stay at WDW, since they know they will have food, water and plumbing even if their towns have little or none. So I crossed my fingers, and it turned out I left 1 day before the storm was due to hit the area. Breathed a sigh of relief, got on the plane and went to WDW. And then the storm never came, so I really lucked out. I have NEVER seen the parks so empty or the cm's so happy. They had just been through 2 hurricanes, so they were happy this one passed, and of course it's gotta be less stressful when there are less guests.

Lotsa luck, hope it works out for you, let us know what happens. Hope you get plenty of

 

[Pollito916]

Right you are (and lllovell too!) I was lucky enough to go when Ivan was supposed to hit, but he took a left turn and went waaaay west at the last minute. Didn't rain once when I was there.

No one knew what was going to happen until it happened of course--storms are like that. I went on the boards to see what others were planning. There was all sorts of hand wringing, and many folks didn't want to chance it so they cancelled. My feeling was, as long as I could GET there, I'd be OK. WDW builds it's resorts to withstand this sort of storm. In fact, as reported here during that time, there are some families will actually leave their homes and go stay at WDW, since they know they will have food, water and plumbing even if their towns have little or none. So I crossed my fingers, and it turned out I left 1 day before the storm was due to hit the area. Breathed a sigh of relief, got on the plane and went to WDW. And then the storm never came, so I really lucked out. I have NEVER seen the parks so empty or the cm's so happy. They had just been through 2 hurricanes, so they were happy this one passed, and of course it's gotta be less stressful when there are less guests.

Lotsa luck, hope it works out for you, let us know what happens. Hope you get plenty of

I went at the same time as you last year and had the same experience, with the added stress of having a wedding ceremony planned OUTSIDE at Sunset Pointe one of the days. It didn't rain all day, until the EXACT time the ceremony started.

I was on the hurricane center website and allears.net a couple times a day the week before the trip. I figured as long as WDW was open and the airline would take us, we were still going!

Oh well, we still had a great trip and a great wedding! Pixie dust to everyone planning to go to WDW, and everyone who lives anywhere near the path of this or anyother hurricane!

(Holding my breath for hurricane activity during trip coming up!)

 

[Donalds_best_pal]

Dennis looks like it will miss main florida entirely. Now it looks like only the panhandle is in the cone. It looks like landfall between new orleans and mobile. The NHC has near me in meridian on Monday at 8pm with 92 mph winds!!!


Matt

 

[JimMIA]

Dennis looks like it will miss main florida entirely. Now it looks like only the panhandle is in the cone. It looks like landfall between new orleans and mobile. The NHC has near me in meridian on Monday at 8pm with 92 mph winds!!!


Matt

You have to remember two things about the NHC maps -- which they tell you, but nobody reads.

First, the "cones" are the boundaries within which NHC thinks the center of the hurricane will pass during the time periods shown. They are well-educated compromise projections based on a number of data sets and computer models. Some of the models vary hundreds of miles east or west from other models.

NHC doesn't claim to be sure where any storm is going and projected tracks are only 60-70% accurate. As you get farther out in time, obviously the accuracy of their projections gets fuzzier, which is why you see the cones broaden out so much as you move away from the current position of the storm.

Second, the center of the storm is not the only thing you have to worry about. Hurricanes are hundreds of miles wide -- Hurricane Dennis' tropical storm force winds currently extend across a 160 mile swath...and Dennis is just developing. The center of a hurricane could hit 100 miles away and still cause a lot of destruction. If you doubt that, watch the casualty numbers coming in today and tonight from Haiti (never closer than 100 miles to the center of Dennis, and most of that was when Dennis was a tropical storm).

And finally, I'm not sure where Meridian, MS is, but I assume you are well inland. The current NHC estimates for landfall on the Gulf Coast are for Sunday afternoon/night with 125 mph winds.

 

[donaldbuzz&minnie]

We're not flying in until Monday, but we're keeping a very interested eye on hurricane developments. Thanks for the updates, JimMIA!!

 

[JimMIA]

bumping because of the change in track

 

[CarolA]

Just an example... this is from Delta.com for Cindy

Last Updated: July 5, 2005, 11:30am EDT

Tropical Storm Cindy is causing flight delays and cancellations as it approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast. If you are traveling to, from, or through this area, check Flight Information frequently for up-to-the-minute information about your flight arrangements. To get updates sent directly to your wireless communication device, be sure to sign up for Flight Notifications.

Rescheduling Flights
You may make a one-time change to your ticket without penalties if you are scheduled to travel to, from, or through the following cities on Delta, Song®, Delta Connection®, or Delta-coded flights during the specified time periods listed below as long as the rescheduled travel for your affected flight takes place by July 12, 2005. Additional collection in fares may apply. See Conditions & Restrictions below.

Destination City
(To, From, or Through) Travel Dates Ticket Issue Date
(On or Before) Reschedule/Reissue Date
(No Later Than)
Baton Rouge, LA
Gulfport / Biloxi, MS
Lafayette, LA
Mobile, AL
New Orleans, LA
July 5–7, 2005 July 5, 2005 July 12, 2005

Call us at 800-221-1212 if you need to make changes to your itinerary.

So as the course of the storm gets closer monitor your airline's website.

 

[JimMIA]

American has similar info posted for many destinations in the Caribbean and Mexico for Hurricane Dennis, with dates currently for travel between July 5 and July 18. I'm sure they will include some Florida destinations as the storm gets closer.

 

[chimera]

Unfortunately, we have to visit family down in Sarasota the first two days...right at the height of this thing.

Maybe family could come visit you at WDW? Doesn't look like we're going to take a direct hit from this thing in Sarasota, but the sideswipe could be interesting. The 2pm advisory has tropical storm watch up to Bonita Beach (about 100 miles or so south of Sarasota). That watch could keep sliding up this way as the storm moves north. Probably won't be the kind of weather you want to be driving in, especially if you aren't familiar with the roads.

We were supposed to go to WDW Sunday for a daytrip, but are thinking about a spontaneous weekend visit tomorrow night. That way, we'll miss the rain on the drive over

 

[PVA]

Thanks Chimera, We may have to skip the drive down your way this year> We'll play it by ear. We've made that drive so many times its second nature but... Hate to travel 3000 miles and not make it down to Sarasota/Venice to see the family, but safety first! We were down just after last summer/fall's 'canes... good luck to all of you this year. Give me my earthquakes any time! By the time you realize they are happening they are over, I don't think I could deal with this watching them come thing.

 

[JimMIA]

abumping the update

 

[snyderla]

JimMIA, thanks for putting this info on here! My brother and his family live in Homestead and my dad lives in Bonita Beach, and here I sit in IL watching and wondering where to get the most accurate and up to date info and praying they will be fine.

Lori

 

[kenleemela]

We are flying out of Philadelphia on Sunday morning so I am keeping my fingers crossed that the hurricane does not head towards WDW. Thanks for the info.

 

[JimMIA]

JimMIA, thanks for putting this info on here! My brother and his family live in Homestead and my dad lives in Bonita Beach, and here I sit in IL watching and wondering where to get the most accurate and up to date info and praying they will be fine.

Lori

If you want to watch, go to the NHC site, look on the left margin, and click on Satellite Imagery. Scroll down a little and click on GOES Storm Floater 1 & 2 (use the "visible loop" for the best pictures). Right now, Floater 1 still has the remnants of TD Cindy, so 2 is the one you want. For a wider view, click on GOES-East/Western Atlantic & Caribbean (again, the visible loop).

It's cool at first, but it gets a little scary when the darn thing just keeps grinding along toward a relative's house. I watched Charlie do that last year, making an abrupt turn back toward my uncle and cousins' homes in Ft. Myers. It was a little uncomfortable to watch, but the storm changed course again and they did fine.

In addition to the NHC site, I would check with your father and see which Ft. Myers TV stations have the best coverage.

Forget network news, they don't know anything. They just air scenic stuff like sailboats bobbing in the bay and parrot the NHC advisories...which you get quicker, and without the commercials from NHC.

All of the Miami TV stations have great, accurate coverage, and you could probably pick up live feeds from them on the Internet. They can't always resist the urge to hype, but they're pretty responsible most of the time. WFOR probably has the best reputation, but all of them are good. Our local folks know hurricanes!