If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[e_yerger]

Well, I really meant protect the elderly with extreme measures.

So we should protect them by limiting their exposure to the virus. Which goes against the OP about building herd immunity.

 

[erc]

So we should protect them by limiting their exposure to the virus. Which goes against the OP about building herd immunity.

But from what I am reading herd immunity would end up protecting the elderly by stopping the easy spread. Again this is if flattening is not working.

 

[sam_gordon]

It's been one week.

The UK initially went down the herd immunity path, and then they decided to shutdown as well.

This looks promising. Check out the New Cases v New Recoveries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm not understanding what numbers you feel "look promising". And I don't see a "New Recoveries" category. Am I missing it?

 

[sam_gordon]

But from what I am reading herd immunity would end up protecting the elderly by stopping the easy spread. Again this is if flattening is not working.

Why do you feel flattening isn't working?

 

[e_yerger]

Additionally, if herd immunity was an option for COVID-19, wouldn't it have worked in China?

 

[cvjw]

It's also extremely ageist to say "lock up the elderly".

It is extremely smart to tell the elderly and those with underlying conditions to take extra precautions. We will not be able to make people stay inside indefinitely. It will get to the point where healthy people will go on about their normal lives and those that aren’t quite as healthy or are older will have to take more precautions.

We will get to the point where the “cure” is worse than the disease.

 

[erc]

Why do you feel flattening isn't working?

I am reading the Governor of NY is in near panic. So I am guessing that flattening is not working at least in NY. So I am assuming that will be the nation as a whole. Did I misread?

 

[Farro]

It's been one week.

The UK initially went down the herd immunity path, and then they decided to shutdown as well.

This looks promising. Check out the New Cases v New Recoveries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

98% mild condition is great!!!

 

[e_yerger]

It is extremely smart to tell the elderly and those with underlying conditions to take extra precautions. We will not be able to make people stay inside indefinitely. It will get to the point where healthy people will go on about their normal lives and those that aren’t quite as healthy or are older will have to take more precautions.

We will get to the point where the “cure” is worse than the disease.

I agree - it pains me to see my best friend stuck inside. She is on week 3 of home quarantining and hasn't left or see anyone, other than her boyfriend who lives with her.

But herd immunity is not the solution right now.

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

Maybe if everyone actually isolated... But you know spring breakers, cherry blossoms, some states still have school open... Instead this is a CF

It took me a minute to realize what CF stood for

 

[RamblingMad]

I'm not understanding what numbers you feel "look promising". And I don't see a "New Recoveries" category. Am I missing it?

You have to scroll down.

 

[e_yerger]

I am reading the Governor of NY is in near panic. So I am guessing that flattening is not working at least in NY. So I am assuming that will be the nation as a whole. Did I misread?

That's because NY is the epicenter of the outbreak in the US and we were delayed to start monitoring for the outbreak. We (the United States) don't have the resources available to handle this outbreak. There is a lack in testing, protective gear for healthcare professionals, and society as a whole up here is NOT taking it seriously.

This is coming from someone who lives in Northern NJ. We were late in our response. There are many other states in our nation where it is NOT too late. So yeah, we need to flatten the curve everywhere in the US so that way they don't all end up like NY/ NY tri-state.

 

[chicagoshannon]

We need to give it another week to see. Most of the tests coming back + are still the backlog from before. Another week we should know.

 

[Dole_whip_doll]

I keep thinking maybe it’s “The Happening” mixed with “The Stand” and a dash of “Alas, Babylon” thrown in.

 

[sam_gordon]

I am reading the Governor of NY is in near panic. So I am guessing that flattening is not working at least in NY. So I am assuming that will be the nation as a whole. Did I misread?

I have no idea what the mind status of the NY governor is, and even if it is "panic" (which I highly doubt), how does that mean flattening is not working, even in NY? You're trying to take a single data point and come to a conclusion. That's faulty logic. Did enough people in NY do enough TO flatten the numbers? If they didn't, then it's not "flattening" that doesn't work, it's people that aren't working.

And, you can't look at the number of people with the disease and say "flattening isn't working" because, as I said, more tests = more positives.
And, the "flattening" has really only been going on for about a week. We're starting our second week. So, let's see what's going on next weekend at least, if not another week to say "what we're doing isn't working".

All that being said, I'm not convinced in a couple months that we won't be saying "we went too far", but I'm also not ready to say "this doesn't work, we need to do something else".

 

[Notrealname]

Breathe in. Breathe out.

That’s a good start, but search box breathing. That works better for me.

 

[sam_gordon]

You have to scroll down.

Don't get too excited. That's going to shoot back up because there were 8k+ "new cases" today (as reported on that site).

 

[RamblingMad]

And in the US it looks like young adults are the ones getting COVID-19 and ending up in the hospital.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w
"Among 508 (12%) patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years (Figure 2). The percentage of persons hospitalized increased with age, from 2%–3% among persons aged ≤19 years, to ≥31% among adults aged ≥85 years. (Table).

Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table)."

 

[RamblingMad]

Don't get too excited. That's going to shoot back up because there were 8k+ "new cases" today (as reported on that site).

True. But I have to remain hopeful.

 

[gwynne]

I am reading the Governor of NY is in near panic. So I am guessing that flattening is not working at least in NY. So I am assuming that will be the nation as a whole. Did I misread?

I'd advise you to skip the interwebs and watch his press conferences. He's a calm, reassuring voice of reason.
And no, I'm not from NY. I just appreciate his straightforward problem solving style.