If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[Starport Seven-Five]

I would advise you to read some articles regarding what China did and how long it took. Your expectation of nearly instant results is not realistic.

 

[Notrealname]

I think we have to assume that not everyone is staying home. They need to take that into consideration in their models. Not everyone is staying home. No, not huge gatherings like sports events or Disney World but people will find small groups. I was watching various webcams where I live and they have this feature of letting you see the entire previous day in about a one minute video. Well in a lot of public places dog people seem to always find each other and come together way closer than 6 feet apart. All day in this public park I would see random dog people gather throughout the day. It is dog people that will doom our civilization.

It’s a fact, not an assumption. People are not social distancing. They are gathering in groups when they go out. NY’s governor called them out as he should have. Don’t just blame the dog people. Call out the basketball players, the custody day dads at the playgrounds, the people working out at the gym, and the list goes on.

 

[mombrontrent]

Not everyone CAN stay home. People working essential businesses & government services aside, people should be staying home. People should not be flocking to the beach & parks. People should not go "shopping" for something to do. People SHOULD be limiting there shopping trips. We all have to be doing our part to stop the spread and flatten the curve.

I work at a grocery store, in a town with a large elderly population. I see many of the same people coming in everyday, sometimes multiple times a day. You should see how close some of the customers try and get to us, I try to keep my distance as politely as possible but some people don’t get it and keep trying to get in closer. Back off and just be glad im coming into work everyday so you can eat

 

[Planogirl]

Is there solid proof that herd immunity even applies to this virus?

 

[disneychrista]

Is there solid proof that herd immunity even applies to this virus?

I have seen articles that say just the opposite. That "herd immunity" will NOT work.

 

[RamblingMad]

Is there solid proof that herd immunity even applies to this virus?

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...herd-immunity-to-beat-coronavirus-we-need-it/
"Research so far suggests that the coronavirus has a lower infection rate than measles, with each infected person passing it on to two or three new people, on average. This means that herd immunity should be achieved when around 60 percent of the population becomes immune to COVID-19. "

 

[tzolkin]

What is the level where it is overwhelming the system? I have read reports that 7% of coronavirus cases require hospitalization. With the current 33,000 positive cases that would mean 2,310 hospitalizations. Is that enough to overwhelm the hospitals?

Hospitals are almost out of supplies. As in, less than a week’s worth if everything proceeded as normal. So even if there were 0 COVID-19 cases in an area, the hospital there would still be in crisis mode and having to cancel elective procedures in an effort to conserve what supplies they have left.

 

[rigs32]

Deaths by age in NY:

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths.pdf

That’s deaths by age in NYC. NY and NYC have different trajectories because of population density, among other factors.

Because of the actions taken as a result of the NYC cases, upstate and western NY will likely have a much more flattened curve than other areas who locked down later in the process.

 

[elaine amj]

Let's give it a few weeks. Rather than calling it a failure before we have even really started. It's surely worth the try to stay home for a few weeks.

 

[ChrisFL]

If everyone in the world with known cases did self-isolation for 3 weeks....this would most likely be resolved for the most part...the difficulty is getting everyone to do that and the economic impact questions for doing that

 

[disneychrista]

If everyone in the world with known cases did self-isolation for 3 weeks....this would most likely be resolved for the most part...the difficulty is getting everyone to do that and the economic impact questions for doing that

The bigger problem is that you are contagious BEFORE you have symptoms. So that healthy looking cashier at the grocery store just exposed hundreds of people before he begins to have symptoms.

 

[Colleen27]

All of these measures were put in place to slow the progression to the point where the hospitals could keep up. If all of these things still are not working, would it be better to just let it spread so that we develop herd immunity sooner rather than later?

1. Way too soon to tell if it is working, because the measures are still too new in the areas taking them and too uneven overall.

2. We aren't prepared to choose that path either, because we haven't even been attempting to gauge the true scope and scale of the virus spread in the U.S. I think we may end up having a conversation about going that route, but not until work on a test for immunity is further along (a test has been developed, last I read, but not widely tested for accuracy yet) so we have a way of measuring outcomes.

I personally think we need to pursue a middle ground. The year or two of varying degrees of social isolation measures aren't going to be sustainable, so we should be thinking along the lines of increasing herd immunity gradually while also working to mitigate the impact on health care systems. But I don't see any way to do that without testing. If we were testing for infection and for immunity, we could encourage those who have already been exposed and recovered to resume more or less normal activities, which would blunt the economic impact (particularly as the number of immune grows over time), while continuing to impose social distancing measures for those who have not been exposed, particularly those in high risk groups.

 

[Colleen27]

Is there solid proof that herd immunity even applies to this virus?

I have seen articles that say just the opposite. That "herd immunity" will NOT work.

Herd immunity works with viruses. There are a couple of exceptions that everyone knows (influenza and the common cold) but for the vast majority of known viruses, infection and recovery grants immunity and the virus doesn't change enough from year to year or person to person to get around that immunity. Right now, we don't have any solid evident that COVID19 is one of those limited outliers, so it makes sense to proceed as though it is a virus that will interact with the immune system as viruses generally do.

If herd immunity really doesn't work, this thing is more than a crisis. It is a world-changer. Because there would be no end to its impact, and even a vaccine wouldn't stop it (any more than vaccination has ended the flu).

 

[ChrisFL]

The bigger problem is that you are contagious BEFORE you have symptoms. So that healthy looking cashier at the grocery store just exposed hundreds of people before he begins to have symptoms.

Sorry, I meant the country, not the individuals, but you're correct either way

 

[Colleen27]

I think it's WAY too soon to judge whether "flattening" is working. I think we need AT LEAST another week to see the effects.

Realistically, we'll need longer than that. Italy imposed the first nationwide lockdown on March 9 and still hasn't seen new cases start to decline.

 

[rigs32]

We don’t yet know if herd immunity even applies to COVID-19. There are reports of people getting sick twice, with negative tests in between.

 

[Colleen27]

We don’t yet know if herd immunity even applies to COVID-19. There are reports of people getting sick twice, with negative tests in between.

Very few. Few enough that the feeling is that the test was faulty and they never fully cleared the virus from their systems, rather than that they were genuine reinfection.

Again, if herd immunity doesn't work with this we're talking about it being around and lethal forever, in which case there's really no point in any of the measures we're taking to flatten the curve unless we look at them as a new, permanent way of life. Because if immunity doesn't happen, it would be because the virus mutates too rapidly... which would also render a vaccine ineffective (as with the flu - it might work or might not depending on how well the vaccine matches up with the dominant strain at any given time). But since there's no evidence that this is an outlier - yes, I'm aware there is evidence of small mutations, but there's disagreement over whether or not the differences are even enough to consider the mutated form as a separate strain, much less one that is different enough to bypass immune responses - it doesn't make sense to leap to that worst-case scenario just yet.

 

[godisney14]

We don’t yet know if herd immunity even applies to COVID-19. There are reports of people getting sick twice, with negative tests in between.

Very few. Few enough that the feeling is that the test was faulty and they never fully cleared the virus from their systems, rather than that they were genuine reinfection.

As Colleen27 mentioned, it’s likely due to a faulty test.

No test is 100% for sensitivity and specificity.
So, out of tens of thousands of tests, you’re bound to have a few false results statistically.

(ie. If you’re taking a pregnancy test and time is not of the essence, the very basic cheap tests are good because they have low sensitivity).

 

[cabanafrau]

I am reading the Governor of NY is in near panic. So I am guessing that flattening is not working at least in NY. So I am assuming that will be the nation as a whole. Did I misread?

I have no idea what the mind status of the NY governor is, and even if it is "panic" (which I highly doubt), how does that mean flattening is not working, even in NY? You're trying to take a single data point and come to a conclusion. That's faulty logic. Did enough people in NY do enough TO flatten the numbers? If they didn't, then it's not "flattening" that doesn't work, it's people that aren't working.

And, you can't look at the number of people with the disease and say "flattening isn't working" because, as I said, more tests = more positives.
And, the "flattening" has really only been going on for about a week. We're starting our second week. So, let's see what's going on next weekend at least, if not another week to say "what we're doing isn't working".

All that being said, I'm not convinced in a couple months that we won't be saying "we went too far", but I'm also not ready to say "this doesn't work, we need to do something else".

Beyond faulty logic, we can't overlook that "I am reading" is NOT a data point from which to start.

 

[jalapeno_pretzel]

If the isolating / quarantining works, we should not expect to see a slowing of cases until up to 21 days past the very start of the lockdown. That is incubation period plus the average time after symptoms start to when hospitalization becomes needed for the severe cases. We are going to see exponential increase in cases for the next 3 weeks. That doesn't mean it's not working. We will only know after that time if it is working or not. Of course, judging from some of the spring break beach pictures, I'm not sure we are isolating sufficiently.

Yes, the medical system - which already looks to be overwhelmed - will be under tremendous pressure. People who need critical care are likely to need that kind of care for 3-4 weeks. So even after we start to see a drop in the rate of new cases, the medical system is going to be in a dire situation for quite some time. So no, we should not just abandon the quarantines and overwhelm them even further.