If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[Kitty 34]

Just love our new DISers to the Community Board recently. Welcome!!!

 

[Party.Of.4-NY>>>FL]

Remember, "today's numbers" are actually telling the story of what happened 2 weeks ago Incubation period, and the time for symptoms to ramp up the point where people are seeking care. By your own admission, the restrictions started 12 days ago, becoming more severe as the days went on. Cuomo's "the numbers are accelerating" is absolutely accurate because 14 days ago, people were going about their business close to normal, and that unfortunately means people infecting people. If we want to know if the restrictions are working we will have to look at the numbers 2 weeks from now. And that won't even entirely tell if they are working, because people could still infect the people in their households.

There is no shortcut here. All we can do is wait (inside of our homes, or practicing social distancing). I know many Americans have the attention span of a gnat (or at least that's what they tell us as to why we can't have long attractions anymore) so this is hard, but we have to just wait.

Thank you for saying this!

If it helps people to understand, do it this way. Go outside and look at the sun. The sunlight you are seeing at this very moment left the surface of the sun 8 minutes and 20 seconds ago. You are not looking at brand new sunlight. The only way to know if the sun is actually shining at this very moment is to wait 8:20.

 

[Hikergirl]

Since we can't run two simulations (doing what we are doing now and doing something else) we will have to trust the experts in Public Health and EM and do what they say.

I am frustrated that my local stores are busy too, but we need to keep getting the word out there. All the research shows that social distancing and testing are keys to getting this under control.

I think letting millions of people die will have a negative effect on everything, including the economy. I am not willing to sacrifice people so CEOs can get their bonuses. And I would rather live on what I can than have my family get sick and die.

Yes that is of course what we are all worried about, you found us out.

 

[our two princesses]

DD is also a Pharmer. To preserve supplies for her lupus patients, she is out of the antimalarial. Then she asks those drug seekers to step back from the counter and asks them about symptoms. Not surprisingly, no symptoms. Covidiots are coming in with scrips for their entire family . . . all asymptomatic.

My daughter and sister need this drug. I sure hope pharmacies don’t run out due to selfishness.

 

[Hikergirl]

Italy was put on a National quarantine on March 9, they had 9,172 cases that day.
Today they have 69,176. One day after the 2 week mark.
If the quarantine works to slow the spread, as of tomorrow they should start to level off. Or more like have less than the daily average 6000 new positives they've have the last few days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

 

[mjkacmom]

Maybe where you live but here it's pretty slim pickings. I live in the same metro as mom2rtk though she lives on the other side of the state line. Our grocery stores and the like haven't had real time to stock up fully. Oh they'll get things here and there (went to a Walmart on the other side of the state line a few days ago and they had bread though it was mostly Wonder Bread and they had just gotten toilet paper though it was all gone basically when I got there maybe under 10 packages left, I saw them in basically everyone's cart but just about everything else was gone gone gone, was able to get some beef broth though).

The main reason is they've enacted measure after measure in quick succession. By the time they announced a state of emergency and no gatherings of 250 on my side of the state line people started a mad dash to the grocery stores, then it was less than 50..there goes another mad dash to the grocery stores, then schools closing down another mad dash, then dine-in ban another mad dash, then the 15-day less than 10 people announced by the Federal government another mad dash, and most recently over the weekend the 30-day stay at home order which created another mad dash and to be honest I may have things slightly out of order because I can't keep track.

The stores have been trying to restock overnight adjusting their hours so they could but they kept announcing things so quickly there's not enough time in between. Each new announcement caused people to do this or that and TBH understandably so for most of the announcements.

I anticipate 2 1/2-3 weeks starting today before there's a bit more stock in my area but that's a pure guess. That's if no new announcement is made. We're in a 30-day stay at home which at least provides a sense of projected timeline versus an unknown. But a caveat out there is under the stay at home stores (at least in my county haven't read the other notices for the other areas under this) have to provide an hour for those considered high risk which is great but if the stock is restocked overnight those considered higher risk could wipe out the shelves again before others are realistically able to get there. But that's more of a wait and see thing.

I think it’s a pattern based on shut downs. Last week, no bread, this week, tons of bread. A week ago shelves were empty, now they are much better stocked since they are limiting amounts. Day by day it gets better, we are in the epicenter.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Heck, you guys aren’t in the hot zone. Here in NJ (#2 on the infection list) stores have stock. We do on-line shopping as we are still self quarantining. The things we have been unable to get are actually available, but they aren’t substituting. Order Yukon Gold Potatoes( we have to be that specific) they are out and they won’t substitute the potatoes they do have in stock.

Well don't know what to tell you

Maybe check out these two threads because it'll give you some perspective on the places as many people are experiencing the same problems: https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...-will-have-a-sense-of-normalcy-again.3796651/ and https://www.disboards.com/threads/anyone-stockpiling-food.3794432/

Online ordering is diffcult because you aren't likely to get a lot of what you're ordering or more hit or miss. I anticipate that being a bit better (well hopefully)

You def. don't need to be in a hot zone to have restocking issues nor does it somehow make your area better because you don't at the present moment But I'll give ya a if it makes you feel better

 

[mjkacmom]

Well don't know what to tell you

Maybe check out these two threads because it'll give you some perspective on the places as many people are experiencing the same problems: https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...-will-have-a-sense-of-normalcy-again.3796651/ and https://www.disboards.com/threads/anyone-stockpiling-food.3794432/

Online ordering is diffcult because you aren't likely to get a lot of what you're ordering or more hit or miss. I anticipate that being a bit better (well hopefully)

You def. don't need to be in a hot zone to have restocking issues nor does it somehow make your area better because you don't at the present moment But I'll give ya a if it makes you feel better

NJ was you a week ago, our grocery store had a line around the block before it opened, and the doors were locked and the police were called to help by 9 am. Be patient.

 

[indimom]

And the folks who are now faithfully following this belief system usually discount the fact that all ages get Covid-19.
My opinion-science and statistics are not their strong points.

Agreed. This isn't just about 80yo people, but all of us.

I'm really perturbed by this notion floating around that the older generation should just take one for the team, accept this might kill them and go on with life as it was. How many people over 65 would gladly just say "welp, I had a good run!"

I think what people need to say (instead of "its just X% or 80yos) is I am willing to die to save the economy, or I'm willing to see my child die alone to save the economy. How many people are willing to say that? Because I might be 47, but it could just as likely be me as it could be you. People die in all 'age brackets.' And more die when we overwhelm the systems in place.

People will die from this. Fact. And they may not necessarily be the oldest or the sickest among us. We don’t have a lot of control over it, even with sheltering in place (or wearing masks in hospitals and supermarkets). Hopefully that does slow down the pace but it won’t save everyone. If we want to blame anyone maybe we should look to how this started and why we weren’t warned about it months before we finally were, not our own government who is now trying to do damage control.

Further, I am getting the sense that either some people cannot think this through logically, or they have a vested interest in seeing the economy tank using the “fear” of coronavirus as a handy excuse.

Let’s get ahold of ourselves, people!

Agreed. We aren't going to make anything better with panic and jumping from one solution to another. We need to make a plan and stick with the plan. And we need to try out best to think about others and help support others so that maybe, just maybe we come out of the other side with as many survivors (individuals and businesses alike) as possible.

The country was shut down because they were thinking the death rate would be 5%. It is not. It's is around 1%. Time to reopen.

Also, like said above if people would stop overwhelming the ER with a cough this wouldn't be as big of a problem (the overcrowding of hospitals)

I work for a hospital. No one is overwhelming them with a cough. They are only treating the worst of the worst. They have a telehealth center to manage and monitor the rest. Our covid patients who are there, are there because they need to be, they are receiving supportive measures to try to help them survive.


I know two people personally who are fighting for their lives right now. My cousin who's 55, a single father to a preteen and young teen (his wife passed away last year). And my boss's husband who is 47 and father to a 9yo and 12yo. Obviously they were going to have a bad response to this virus, no changing that unless they had managed to avoid it until a vaccine was available. But I'm certainly glad the hospitals have a vent available for them to give them a fighting chance.
I just can't imagine the tragedy of those who could die due to lack of care if we overwhelm the hospitals with people who need critical care.

 

[EveDallas]

My area has started pulling a few people over to see where they are going and if they really need to be out.

Doesn't look like they're issuing tickets or anything yet, probably more just putting procedures in place to get everyone used to it before it becomes absolutely crucial. I'd say most activity and traffic is down by 75% in northeastern NJ.

I don't understand how LEOs are expected to enforce these orders.All a person would have to tell the officer is that they are on their way to the grocery store or some allowed business. How could the officer prove otherwise?

 

[morgan98]

Since we can't run two simulations (doing what we are doing now and doing something else) we will have to trust the experts in Public Health and EM and do what they say.

I am frustrated that my local stores are busy too, but we need to keep getting the word out there. All the research shows that social distancing and testing are keys to getting this under control.

I think letting millions of people die will have a negative effect on everything, including the economy. I am not willing to sacrifice people so CEOs can get their bonuses. And I would rather live on what I can than have my family get sick and die.

You really think this is about CEOs getting their bonuses or MILLIONS dying? I agree it is serious but this just makes me shake my head.

There are MILLIONS of people who normally live paycheck to paycheck who are going to have no wages and may not bounce back from this for a very, very long time. That is a legitimate concern. It will have huge impacts on the economy. At some point, we will need to find balance. I do not exactly know what it will look like, but hoping we find it.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I think it’s a pattern based on shut downs. Last week, no bread, this week, tons of bread. A week ago shelves were empty, now they are much better stocked since they are limiting amounts. Day by day it gets better, we are in the epicenter.

Day by day it hasn't got any better unfortunately here. Not as an overall thing at least. For my area it's not only shutdowns which happened later on, it started when it was 1,000 attendees events on one side and then state of emergency announced on my side, etc. Every few days it feels like a new announcement was made and it caused people to go out shopping again. Your area may not have done it that way.

Epicenter or not that doesn't mean that influences people's behaviors.

But like I said I anticipating getting better here (at least hopefully).

NJ was you a week ago, our grocery store had a line around the block before it opened, and the doors were locked and the police were called to help by 9 am. Be patient.

I was providing support to another poster, who happens to be in my area, who explained about inventory issues as it relates to here and your matter of fact comment of "You can go buy food, that’s it. Shelves are restocked. My friend recently got a job stocking shelves." because that's not the reality of plenty of posters.

Nowhere in my comments have I said I'm impatient nor am I implying that. Apologies for trying to explain I guess but you're more than welcome to read the multitude of comments throughout various threads of people throughout the U.S. still experiencing stock issues

 

[Colleen27]

I don't disagree. There are plenty of things "open" now, adding more may not make a difference.
Right now in NY 100% of non-essential workers are supposed to be working from home.
However there are tons of essential workers already out there. Will letting others go to their workplace make a huge difference in terms of the spread?

And essential has taken on some interesting definitions. Restaurants? Essential, as long as they're only serving takeout. Home improvement stores? Essential. Office supply stores? Essential. Liquor stores? Essential, as long as they sell at least some food.

With the data from the Diamond Princess showing that the virus remains viable on surfaces for 17 days, I don't think shutting down more workplaces and putting more people on the unemployment lines is likely to make a big difference. The virus will still be there waiting for many of them when these orders expire, unless they're extended or the businesses go belly-up in the meantime, and there's no amount of cleaning or distancing that is going to keep it from spreading via grocers and gas stations and other open businesses with that kind of durability.

Ahh yes the economy. Much more important than the lives of our loved ones. What will do without the stock market.

Sorry not sorry, I care more about the lives of my best friend, grandparents, and cousins who are at risk than the economy.

Yeah, well, I happen to care about my daughter's best friend who is likely to be homeless next month, and my neighbor who lost the insurance that paid for his type I diabetic son's insulin too. The economy is more than just the stock market. But I guess you figure it is okay for people to be sleeping on the streets and dying when they can't get their meds, as long as your loved ones are safe, right?

People need to make up their mind... do they want people to stay home or it's ok to go out (grocery shoppping)?

OMG yes. Our groceries aren't allowing shoppers to purchase a family's worth of groceries any more. Item limits mean I'm going to be shopping more than usual for as long as this lasts, either by hitting more than one store to work around the limits or by going out more often.

 

[msjprincess]

Heck, you guys aren’t in the hot zone. Here in NJ (#2 on the infection list) stores have stock. We do on-line shopping as we are still self quarantining. The things we have been unable to get are actually available, but they aren’t substituting. Order Yukon Gold Potatoes( we have to be that specific) they are out and they won’t substitute the potatoes they do have in stock.

I'm on LI in the hot zone, and it's definitely slim pickings at our supermarkets.

 

[Notrealname]

I don't understand how LEOs are expected to enforce these orders.All a person would have to tell the officer is that they are on their way to the grocery store or some allowed business. How could the officer prove otherwise?

The LEO could ask what store they are heading to, look at the home address on The license, and consider where the encounter is taking place.
If there’s enough noncompliance by cheaters we may find our selves like Italy. Before you go out, you write a letter, date and time it, and state where you are going. If you’re stopped, you produce your letter, the cop reads your letter, and determines whether you’re doing what you claimed based on your location, time, etc.
None of that totally eliminates liars, cheats, and assorted scoundrels. But hey, theyll get theirs. And I sure don’t want to see us get to that point.

 

[Heather07438]

I don't understand how LEOs are expected to enforce these orders.All a person would have to tell the officer is that they are on their way to the grocery store or some allowed business. How could the officer prove otherwise?

I heard that people are going to need to carry essential work certification to be out and about and away from their local area.

My thinking is that they're trying to get people acclimated step by step before these restrictions and more become fully necessary. My area estimated that in 2 or 3 weeks the crazy numbers will start coming. If that does happen (likely), then we're in for even tougher restrictions.

 

[mom2rtk]

The LEO could ask what store they are heading to, look at the home address on The license, and consider where the encounter is taking place.
If there’s enough noncompliance by cheaters we may find our selves like Italy. Before you go out, you write a letter, date and time it, and state where you are going. If you’re stopped, you produce your letter, the cop reads your letter, and determines whether you’re doing what you claimed based on your location, time, etc.
None of that totally eliminates liars, cheats, and assorted scoundrels. But hey, theyll get theirs. And I sure don’t want to see us get to that point.

Are they going to call the grocery store close to your home address and ask if they had any meat in stock?

 

[erc]

The fatality rate for 30-39 year old is almost negligible. From the CDC:

View attachment 483198

I say "almost". Tragically , there are cases in which fatalities occur in nearly all age groups. But in 36 year olds, they are the extreme outliers.

We need to realize that the only reason it has gotten to where we are today is because of the fatality rate among the elderly. H1N1 was strangely more deadly to kids and young adults yet we didn't shut everything down. So there is obviously a certain metric of death where we just don't care.

 

[lifesavacation]

GS expects 5 million people to have filed for unemployment this week. Those people won’t have healthcare. This is a big problem.

Who is paying for the helicopter money?

Please forgive my ignorance on this, but isn’t there welfare or state health insurance that is available to people without income? I know my BIL hasn’t worked in years and his family is covered by state health insurance.

I’m not exactly sure what GS stands for so maybe you aren’t talking about the US. Or maybe it’s different in each state. I’ve never used welfare benefits so not sure how it works.

 

[mnrose]

We need to realize that the only reason it has gotten to where we are today is because of the fatality rate among the elderly. H1N1 was strangely more deadly to kids and young adults yet we didn't shut everything down. So there is obviously a certain metric of death where we just don't care.

What's an unacceptable number? How many people need to die, say, in the next week before you would say "hey maybe we should do something?" Just wondering where you draw that line. One week ago, we had 7103 deaths world wide, increasing at a rate of about 600 per day. Today, we have 16,365, increasing at a rate of 1764. Continued at that trajectory (more than 20% increase in deaths per day) means that by next Tuesday, we might add 27,340 (for a total of 43,600). Let's go another week, since you probably say that's acceptable. In another week, we ADD another almost 100,000 (assuming the rate of increase in deaths....20% doesn't accelerate, as it in fact has, rather significantly, in the last week). So, now we're at 143,000 dead people, with families and lives. I could keep going. I'm just wondering what YOUR number is of "acceptable" levels of death? Anything? Millions? All the experts I've heard say we can't expect a "peak" in this country till the end of April. That's 6 weeks away. And, that assumes we continue social distancing.