If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[godisney14]

No I read that post
None of this changes my comment no? regarding us not knowing if this is all working? I don't know personally speaking if it's a logical step or not truly because we've never been in this situation. I'm cautiously optimistic though

In many respects the numbers are not going to give a full picture as selective testing and lack of abundance testing is skewing numbers. And the numbers will continue to be skewed as selective testing continues. If the incubation period was much shorter and tests much faster in response (which I know they are working on it) we would be in a better picture to know if any given measure has really worked. So far it's been a rapid progression without enough time to fully investigate how any measures are effectively working here in the U.S. (note in the U.S.).

Sometimes you just have to take a step towards what seems most logical before coming to a consensus. Inaction is what got us to where we are at right now. And, for now, we are doing what’s needed just not enough. Plenty of evidence out there. If you can’t see that, not sure what else to say at this point besides you can help by staying home.

 

[barbaraann]

It is extremely smart to tell the elderly and those with underlying conditions to take extra precautions. We will not be able to make people stay inside indefinitely. It will get to the point where healthy people will go on about their normal lives and those that aren’t quite as healthy or are older will have to take more precautions.

We will get to the point where the “cure” is worse than the disease.

The president is already making that comment. Reaching for an end to some mandated closures by Easter.

 

[shelemm]

So you are personally familiar with the author of this article and are aware of this "axe to grind"? Can you please provide me with what, specifically, his axe is, and why his opinion on the matter is not even worthy of examination, regardless of his medical credentials? If his qualifications in the medical field and renown as a surgeon immediately disqualify him? Should only epidemiologists have any say in this? Or are you making a snap judgement based upon the source of the article and your disdain for that particular publication? It would appear to me that someone here has an axe to grind with the National Review. I don't even read that publication but intended only to suggest that there is some debate on the way forward, and maybe - just MAYBE - it isn't locking people in their homes.

Epidemiologists should be the ones guiding us through an epidemic. Just like you wouldn't consult an obgyn about heart surgery. He includes baby-talk about things that are beside the point, like comparing this in a favorable light to past epidemics and trying so hard to make it look benign which no epidemiologist is doing. I explained exactly why it is far more dangerous in the long run, The article is irrational and misleading, praying on his target audience who are hungry to lap this up. "Seee.... a doctor! A doctor said I could go outside!" As a surgeon, he isn't even on the front lines of giving COVID patients care. Might as well ask my podiatrist.

Maybe we can catch up with supplies and testing, but as it stands now I am not interested in wishful thinking. Save that for the cheer squad. Once we get those things in place, then maybe we can look at relaxing restrictions which are bieng imposed only in a piecemeal fashion. I think the economic misery will be prolonged by the 'cheerleaders.'

 

[shelemm]

You really think this is about CEOs getting their bonuses or MILLIONS dying? I agree it is serious but this just makes me shake my head.

There are MILLIONS of people who normally live paycheck to paycheck who are going to have no wages and may not bounce back from this for a very, very long time. That is a legitimate concern. It will have huge impacts on the economy. At some point, we will need to find balance. I do not exactly know what it will look like, but hoping we find it.

This is why the federal response needs to be targeted. Handing out 'X' amount of dollars immediately to everyone is a colossal waste of resources. Eventually 80 million people will need financial help through the federal response.

What you need to realize is that nobody told the NBA they had to cancel the rest of their season. I work for a company that last Monday said they had no telecommuting policy and that everyone was expected to show up for work. Two days later they said everyone (that could) should work from home. Nobody made them do it. They found out the real story.

 

[Heather07438]

Easter week will be telling.

NY/NJ has over half the confirmed cases in the US now. 30k out of 55k. Most of this is clustered in a 75 mile radius. Even though activity is way down there's still plenty of paths crossing. Measures are reducing spread rates but won't completely and not near the spread reduction seen Wuhan style. So in 3 weeks we'll all have a better idea what to expect nationwide. From a population of 30m, will there only be 100k cases here or 300k+? Can we ease up or will we need to double down.

Either way I think we should figure out how to treat the very sick (but not critical) at home. We need to get those resources in place.

 

[gotomu212]

Where are you getting 75k?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

I bet we could cut it in half by just adopting stronger work from home policies. Might be interesting to look at the data for these states on "lockdown" after this is over.

CDC- it’s the accumulated deaths from 2009-2018 (I should have made very clear that was total deaths but thought that was a better comparison since this is a novel disease and shouldn’t be measured against “annual” flu numbers even though it is now part of the annual flu cocktail out there)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/burden-of-h1n1.html

 

[LSUmiss]

Great. Sure. You also selectively found a source to support your opinion. It’s called selection bias.
Even scientific research is not 100% immune to selection bias.

There is never going to be 100% agreement on any topic—political, scientific, medical, religious, etc. That’s life.

But, there will always be a majority opinion. May be anecdotal to you, but I haven’t heard from any family or friend or peer in the hospital setting who is saying, “Let’s let this thing loose since the economy is of higher importance.”

Exactly. My sister is a nurse in the ER & what she & other ppl are reporting is absolutely alarming. The ppl I know have been nurses or drs for years & they’re all saying that they have never seen anything like this.

 

[Deploraboo]

Nor has the economy Seen anything like this.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Nor has the economy Seen anything like this.

Nor has our country been is such sound economic health going into a disaster.

We will be fine. The relief bill was passed. No one is going to lose their home or get evicted. People are still going to have enough money to eat. Companies are getting money to stay alive - even if on life support - through this crisis so we can start back up once the danger has passed.

Time for the economy alarmists to calm down. Read the bill that was just passed. It will look dark for a while, but we will be fine.

 

[mom2rtk]

Nor has our country been is such sound economic health going into a disaster.

We will be fine. The relief bill was passed. No one is going to lose their home or get evicted. People are still going to have enough money to eat. Companies are getting money to stay alive - even if on life support - through this crisis so we can start back up once the danger has passed.

Time for the economy alarmists to calm down. Read the bill that was just passed. It will look dark for a while, but we will be fine.

What a ridiculously myopic statement. People have lost jobs already. No relief bill can or will bring back all those jobs. People will lose homes. People will lose insurance. People with ongoing chronic medical conditions.

 

[sam_gordon]

Nor has our country been is such sound economic health going into a disaster.

We will be fine. The relief bill was passed. No one is going to lose their home or get evicted. People are still going to have enough money to eat. Companies are getting money to stay alive - even if on life support - through this crisis so we can start back up once the danger has passed.

Time for the economy alarmists to calm down. Read the bill that was just passed. It will look dark for a while, but we will be fine.

Assuming a family of four, that would be a one time payment of $3400. How long do you think that will last? A month? MAYBE two? Don't get me wrong, it will help. But saying "ok, everyone is getting this one check, the economy is fine!" is very naive. And how long will it take to see these checks?

 

[BuckeyeBama]

What a ridiculously myopic statement. People have lost jobs already. No relief bill can or will bring back all those jobs. People will lose homes. People will lose insurance. People with ongoing chronic medical conditions.

Sorry, I don't believe you. America will emerge from this just fine.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Assuming a family of four, that would be a one time payment of $3400. How long do you think that will last? A month? MAYBE two? Don't get me wrong, it will help. But saying "ok, everyone is getting this one check, the economy is fine!" is very naive. And how long will it take to see these checks?

What would unemployment plus $600 extra per week do?

America will be just fine.

 

[mom2rtk]

Sorry, I don't believe you. America will emerge from this just fine.

America might emerge fine. But plenty of individuals won't.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

America might emerge fine. But plenty of individuals won't.

And plenty of individuals have already died with many more to come from the virus. They and their families will never be fine again.

ETA - Yesterday we had folks talking about the end of America - civil uprisings because so many would be destroyed economically. Well, that isn't going to happen now. America will be fine. As long as America is fine, anyone can rebuild. The risk is if the country crumbles, right?

 

[Brett Wyman]

This is why these calls need to be made on a state by state, or even city by city, basis. Iowa obviously doesn't need to be taking the same steps as NY/NJ. Georgia for instance isn't on lock-down, but much of the metro area is.

 

[sam_gordon]

What would unemployment plus $600 extra per week do?

America will be just fine.

Where do you get the $600/week extra? $1200 per person (at this point) one time payment. $500 for kids. So, as I said, for a family of 4, it's $3400.

Did they confirm boosting unemployment benefits? And, where will this money come from?

 

[BuckeyeBama]

This is why these calls need to be made on a state by state, or even city by city, basis. Iowa obviously doesn't need to be taking the same steps as NY/NJ. Georgia for instance isn't on lock-down, but much of the metro area is.

Yeah, the Atlanta and Birmingham metro areas are both running out of ventilators already, but if you live out in rural Alabama or Georgia then you have a much greater chance of isolating yourself. But remember that it takes far fewer cases in rural areas to overwhelm the hospitals because they have far fewer lifesaving resources like ICU units and ventilators per capita.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Where do you get the $600/week extra? $1200 per person (at this point) one time payment. $500 for kids. So, as I said, for a family of 4, it's $3400.

Did they confirm boosting unemployment benefits? And, where will this money come from?

Per several media sources it was in the bill - 4 month boost in unemployment. Given the fact that the federal government also plans to start back up the economy in waves, that will be enough for most. Places like NYC are going to struggle the most as their lock down may drag on for much longer.

 

[mom2rtk]

And plenty of individuals have already died with many more to come from the virus. They and their families will never be fine again.

ETA - Yesterday we had folks talking about the end of America - civil uprisings because so many would be destroyed economically. Well, that isn't going to happen now. America will be fine. As long as America is fine, anyone can rebuild. The risk is if the country crumbles, right?

No, everybody won't recover. Lots of small businesses will never reopen. Lots of people nearing retirement age won't be rehired. Some companies will cut back and not rehire everyone because demand for their products will be down.

I'm glad you apparently will be fine. But to keep saying everyone else will be is short sighted.