Probability of Cruise...

[DIS_MIKE]

CDC said ships closed for 100 more days and you will have problems coming back into the states.

So it's safe to say that no ships will be sailing until the end of July now?

 

[Husker Mike]

The Disney Cruise Line Blog says not to focus on the "100 days" part... it's the other things that will determine when cruising resumes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1248599925761466368

That being said, if you have a May or June cruise still booked, you should be expecting a cancellation announcement in the next few hours. And if you have a cruise for this summer, your plans are probably doubtful, at best.

This is a long-term thing, folks.

 

[DIS_MIKE]

The Disney Cruise Line Blog says not to focus on the "100 days" part... it's the other things that will determine when cruising resumes.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1248599925761466368

That being said, if you have a May or June cruise still booked, you should be expecting a cancellation announcement in the next few hours. And if you have a cruise for this summer, your plans are probably doubtful, at best.

This is a long-term thing, folks.

You were right. Got the email from Disney just a few minutes ago. It's bummer but I knew it was inevitable. I found a new "possible" cruise in August on the Fantasy but I'm not sure if I should book it or not with the 125% as that one also has a high cancellation possibility.

 

[Husker Mike]

Surprised they only cancelled through May 17.

https://disneycruiselineblog.com/2020/04/disney-cruise-line-cancels/

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The TA was cancelled. The odds of the Magic going to Europe are really bad. They also have no entertainment.

 

[DIS_MIKE]

Surprised they only cancelled through May 17.

https://disneycruiselineblog.com/2020/04/disney-cruise-line-cancels/

It's what they do to keep the call volume down.

 

[MomOTwins]

I completely agree agree with Scott. CDC wouldn't say that the order will cease to be in effect upon the "earliest" of three things (i.e., COVID no longer declared a national emergency; CDC director rescinds the order; or 100 days) if it meant to for the order to be at least 100 days. This is an order designed to give the CDC flexibility to lift the cruise ban at whatever point this summer they feel conditions have sufficiently improved. The 100 days is just there so they don't have to keep extending the order each month.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

the 100 days is based on administrative law, not science or forecast.

 

[gismo1554]

The TA was cancelled. The odds of the Magic going to Europe are really bad. They also have no entertainment.

So I would agree with you if not for the dry dock that the Magic has scheduled in September. These book out 2 years in advance. If they can safely get her over and the dock is open for business they will move her over here. Now whether that means they will run any of the Europe cruises I really don't know but they have only cancelled so far a couple of the Med cruises at the beginning of the season (cancellation went out this week I believe) and I think if they weren't hopeful of getting to Europe they would have cancelled more. I do however doubt that they will do the full season at all just think they will try and do as many as they can towards the end of the season. And I'm still holding out hope for a WBTA in October after the dry dock.

 

[pearljammer]

With Disney cancelling through June 7th all cruises, I highly doubt they will be cruising Europe at all. I cancelled my end of July med cruise with NCL and they are HIGHLY doubtful the are cruising Europe at all and advise when they do get back to cruising, it may only be Caribbean. The fact that you are even considering still going and adjusting to end of summer tells me you are still interested in cruising so soon. We are scheduled for Sept with DCL Caribbean and even if they cruise, I’m uncertain. Flu season may be hitting back around that time and we cruised with DCL in Feb of this year and were all sick with SOMETHING less than 2 days after returning. So coincidence or not, it’s not been long enough for me to forget all that. Our PIF is in June so I’ll have to make a decision.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

So I would agree with you if not for the dry dock that the Magic has scheduled in September. These book out 2 years in advance. If they can safely get her over and the dock is open for business they will move her over here. Now whether that means they will run any of the Europe cruises I really don't know but they have only cancelled so far a couple of the Med cruises at the beginning of the season (cancellation went out this week I believe) and I think if they weren't hopeful of getting to Europe they would have cancelled more. I do however doubt that they will do the full season at all just think they will try and do as many as they can towards the end of the season. And I'm still holding out hope for a WBTA in October after the dry dock.

Well, right now they cannot dock in Spain, Italy, Dover or France. So that is problematic. Sweden and Denmark have extended internal border control through November. US State Department have Europe still rated as a Level 4.

 

[gismo1554]

Well, right now they cannot dock in Spain, Italy, Dover or France. So that is problematic. Sweden and Denmark have extended internal border control through November. US State Department have Europe still rated as a Level 4.

True but dry dock is at the end of September. Things are changing on a daily basis and I think if DCL thought they were cancelling Europe completely they would have done so. Spain is starting to come out of lock down as are other European countries (although UK has at least another 3 weeks and I'm suspecting longer - I am in lockdown in UK). As said I dont think all the Europe cruises are likely to happen but I just don't think we can rule out them still doing some of the season if they can because of that dry dock slot. Whether anyone actually wants to cruise over that time peirod is another question I personally would love a cruise right now and will be ready for one once we are free to in all honesty.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Things are changing on a daily basis and I think if DCL thought they were cancelling Europe completely they would have done so.

DCL has been cancelling cruises 2-3 weeks at a time for processing purposes. With crew being sent home, they will be challenged to get them back on board in any kind of short term, where short term is 60-90 days.

I think they may still do the dry dock, but sail over with minimum viable deck crew.

 

[slg]

I live in BC and yesterday our health minister said there won’t be any travelling for fun or work until there is a vaccine. I highly doubt any country is going to want a ship to dock until this virus is under control, and that might not be another year.

 

[smmco]

True but dry dock is at the end of September. Things are changing on a daily basis and I think if DCL thought they were cancelling Europe completely they would have done so. Spain is starting to come out of lock down as are other European countries (although UK has at least another 3 weeks and I'm suspecting longer - I am in lockdown in UK). As said I dont think all the Europe cruises are likely to happen but I just don't think we can rule out them still doing some of the season if they can because of that dry dock slot. Whether anyone actually wants to cruise over that time peirod is another question I personally would love a cruise right now and will be ready for one once we are free to in all honesty.

I think if they were planning on cancelling the Northern European cruises they wouldn’t still be selling the cruises. They may still cancel them but at this point I don’t think that is their intention. It’s still several months off.

 

[smmco]

I live in BC and yesterday our health minister said there won’t be any travelling for fun or work until there is a vaccine. I highly doubt any country is going to want a ship to dock until this virus is under control, and that might not be another year.

Just curious. How do they prevent you from traveling?

 

[slg]

Close the borders...ground the planes....impose 14 day quarantines. It isn’t hard.

 

[MomOTwins]

I think if they were planning on cancelling the Northern European cruises they wouldn’t still be selling the cruises. They may still cancel them but at this point I don’t think that is their intention. It’s still several months off.

I think they are selling those cruises because part of the decision to cancel or not will depend on whether there are enough people sailing to justfy the cost. I suspect it is very much up in the air at this point.

 

[slg]

I think they are selling cruises for cash flow. I don’t think it is possible for them to sail for a long time, but when people buy a cruise, they have their cash and will be able to invest it. Also those folks are likely to take a credit instead of a refund. Again, more cash.

 

[smmco]

Close the borders...ground the planes....impose 14 day quarantines. It isn’t hard.

I’m glad I don’t live in Canada.