Survivor Winners at War Season 40

[monkeydawn]

I want Natalie to come back and win it all! I've said it before, but she's a BEAST! I also think she's utilized her time on EoE well, and her kindness toward Tyson was nice to see.

I agree that Natalie is Beast Mode personified. Any idea why she gave Tyson the idol...did they have a prior connection (I didnt think so)? Is it just that she felt he was the most likely to win back into the game. Its a great move if she wins the way back because I think it might sway Tyson towards voting for her to win plus Tyson is fairly well spoken and influential, I think he could convince others to vote her way too. So in that respect I see Tyson as the best person to give the idol to as opposed to her known alliance member of Jeremy. But I am wondering if there was a connection between them that I missed?

I completely agree with you, @fortwildernessishome. If someone from EoE wins, won't that be the second person to be banished that made it back to win? Sort of takes the "edge" out of the game if the person voted out wins after being exiled each time. How could you not vote for someone who suffered with you on Extinction when the others are the people who voted you out, too?

If any jury is poised to look past this and vote a non EOE person the winner it should be this jury. I was reading someone (maybe Dalton Ross) that was hopeful that if this jury, the ultimate jury, were to not think an EOE was worthy of being a winner because ultimately he could not OUTLAST, then maybe the producers would give up on EOE.

Personally I was glad for EOE this season because my favs were voted out early. I feel like some of the best moments came from EOE. But I also hate that we were deprived of gameplay and strategy for these scenes. If they keep EOE maybe give us 90 minute episodes or make EOE available as on line content.

 

[FigmentSpark]

I was never a fan of Natalie, but I agree, she's busted her behind to compete. She deserves to get back in.

Also... anyone have any idea if they've been filming the next season yet? How is the shutdown affecting future shows?

 

[lovin'fl]

Oops double post

 

[lovin'fl]

I was never a fan of Natalie, but I agree, she's busted her behind to compete. She deserves to get back in.

Also... anyone have any idea if they've been filming the next season yet? How is the shutdown affecting future shows?

They have been filming through this is what I heard. Or were filming. Not sure if they continued to completion.

I also never was a Natalie fan. But she has kicked butt and she may win back in. She has the drive and determination. I wouldn't mind.

 

[monkeydawn]

I was never a fan of Natalie, but I agree, she's busted her behind to compete. She deserves to get back in.

Also... anyone have any idea if they've been filming the next season yet? How is the shutdown affecting future shows?

I like this iteration of Nat better than others we've seen.

No filming yet for 41. Was pushed back to a start date of 5/21 but Ive seen no intel if that is still a go. IIRC that start date puts them about 2 months behind as they usually have the previous season in the can before Jeff heads to the live finale of the prior season. I'd expect we wont see 41 in the fall even if they start filming on 5/21. Hopefully I will be pleasantly surprised.

 

[SamFaniam]

I like this iteration of Nat better than others we've seen.

No filming yet for 41. Was pushed back to a start date of 5/21 but Ive seen no intel if that is still a go. IIRC that start date puts them about 2 months behind as they usually have the previous season in the can before Jeff heads to the live finale of the prior season. I'd expect we wont see 41 in the fall even if they start filming on 5/21. Hopefully I will be pleasantly surprised.

I do like Natalie more than I did in the past. I’ve always been a big Rob fan and hope he can come back and win.

Since Jeff has been posting updates from his home while in quarantine, I think you’re right that they can’t be filming yet. I’m wondering how they’re going to do the reunion show. A 5/21 start date doesn’t seem very likely. But why wouldn’t we be able to see it in the fall. How long does it take to edit the show? I’ve always assumed that they film in real time, that survivor really does last 39 days.

 

[monkeydawn]

Since Jeff has been posting updates from his home while in quarantine, I think you’re right that they can’t be filming yet. I’m wondering how they’re going to do the reunion show. A 5/21 start date doesn’t seem very likely. But why wouldn’t we be able to see it in the fall. How long does it take to edit the show? I’ve always assumed that they film in real time, that survivor really does last 39 days.

They are doing a livestream/ zoom style reunion show. I do think there isnt going to be as much of a reunion show as in the past (as little as has been shown lately I think this one will still be less). It's a shame because this is the one season in recent years where I would LOVE a full on proper reunion show of yore.

They do film in "real time", 39 days. Typically they film March-May and then May-July with a decent break (2-3 weeks) in between for the reunion special and a little time off for Jeff. The March -May season premiers in the fall of the same year with the May- July season premiers the next year in Feb. One year they flipped this. It was the year where people could vote in the players during the spring reunion show. The players were voted in by the at home audience, left pretty much immediately and that season premiered in the fall. Then the season they had already wrapped by the spring finale was premiered the next February. This extra effort was made because it would have been really lame to have players voted onto the show by the at home audience and then have us wait through an entirely different season to see those voted in players play. ICR exactly what it was but there was something that seemed out of sync in the voted in players season and it was because it originated in the season before which hadnt yet aired yet Jeff was acting like it was normal.

So while they were able to edit one season under those sorts of time constraints, they were ready to hit the ground running with the May- July filming cycle. Nothing Ive seen indicates that will be the case with this years film cycle AND they have already lost one film cycle. I believe they work in those months to avoid the more dangerous weather (even though we've seen some pretty wicked weather some seasons anyway).

They did have the 41 and 42 seasons cast and ready before they made the decision to delay but who know what life things may keep some of the cast from participating at a later date. I'm sure they have substitutes at the ready but that may require rebalancing tribes (if not a random draw) and theming of the season.

I just dont see us having a usual September premier. My guess is we will get one cycle next year in the winter/ spring as they wont want to do a delayed premier and then have to break for the holidays and I dont see them airing through the holidays. I really want to be wrong and we get two cycles though. :fingers crossed:

 

[FigmentSpark]

Maybe they'll do one off the coast of CA or FL? They don't actually have to leave the US to find a place to do a show like Survivor. Or, even if it's about Fijian weather, maybe they could choose another location entirely and film in Aug or Sept?

 

[starvenger]

Nick got what he deserved. He had two ways to go and he had a better chance of the final three with the choice he didn't make. The fact that he didn't see that, shows what a poor player he was. ANd if he thinks he has a chance of getting back in, stacked up against the likes of Tyson, Natalie, Rob an Sophie, he has no idea.

He took out Jeremy because of all the players remaining since Tyson left (again), Jeremy had the best social game and could probably win based on that alone. But with that said, Tony is (from what we see in the edit) the clear front runner, and maybe he's hiding things just enough so that people aren't seeing it fully. In a vacuum, it wasn't the worst move, since Ben (Jeremy and Michelle's target) is a pretty clear goat and everyone wants to have him at the end because he won't get any votes. But looking at things from a larger perspective, blindsiding Tony was clearly the move to make since it would create chaos and give Nick a shot at the F3 scenario he wanted.

Except maybe Adam, Wendell or Nick. They don't seem to be held very highly as Survivor winners by the other winners on EoE.

Nick's game was pretty underrated, but it's risky because he plays from an underdog, barely on the radar position. You have to pull the trigger on your biggest threats at just the right time, which he did on his season when he got rid of Christian, but then you have to fight to get to the end.

But this season, to do that is like doing boss battle after boss battle after boss battle. Get rid of Tyson? Jeremy's still there. Get rid of Jeremy? You've still got Tony and Sarah. So it's a situation where Nick implemented the right strategy to win his season, but it wasn't a strategy that could carry through to one filled with returning players.

Michelle didn’t deserve to win once, let alone twice.

I actually have respect for how Michelle's played this season. It's not going to give her a win, but she's fought hard, and I don't think she's been in a power position more than a handful of times.

I was never a fan of Natalie, but I agree, she's busted her behind to compete. She deserves to get back in.

Also... anyone have any idea if they've been filming the next season yet? How is the shutdown affecting future shows?

I've been a fan since the Twinnies were on TAR. And in hindsight, what she's done on EoE completely justifies the decision to vote her out first. It sucks, sure, but I now see it as a respect vote.

As for the next season, I know that TAR (which has a season in the can - it was taped in 2018!) was supposed to get the Survivor slot in 2 weeks, but then it was pulled. My thought is that they will take Survivor's fall slot and Survivor will tape a season or two (maybe not in Fiji?) in the fall.

Maybe they'll do one off the coast of CA or FL? They don't actually have to leave the US to find a place to do a show like Survivor. Or, even if it's about Fijian weather, maybe they could choose another location entirely and film in Aug or Sept?

Survivor: Labadee. Or maybe somewhere in the Bahamas.

 

[monkeydawn]

Maybe they'll do one off the coast of CA or FL? They don't actually have to leave the US to find a place to do a show like Survivor. Or, even if it's about Fijian weather, maybe they could choose another location entirely and film in Aug or Sept?

I think a lot of why they committed to Fiji was being able to put in infrastructure to make filming and editing easier (I believe they have an edit unit there). I'm not saying that they wont go elsewhere just to get more content for the year but I can see the argument against it. Basically it will come down to dollars...can they make more in advertising for CBS than they would be required to spend.

 

[trip]

I was never a fan of Natalie, but I agree, she's busted her behind to compete. She deserves to get back in.

Also... anyone have any idea if they've been filming the next season yet? How is the shutdown affecting future shows?

I'm another that is not a fan on Natalie. It stems from when she and her sister were on Amazing Race. "Twinie, Twinie" that drove me crazy.

 

[starvenger]

I'm another that is not a fan on Natalie. It stems from when she and her sister were on Amazing Race. "Twinie, Twinie" that drove me crazy.

I feel like that was a bit of trolling on their part. I think the other teams got annoyed by it, so they turned it up to 11.

 

[The Mayor]

Tony has played the best game this season so far and deserves to win. If he gets to final three with any of the remaining players then he wins.

As for Natalie or any player returning from EoE, they don’t deserve to win according to the premise of the show to Outwit, Outplay, Outlast because anyone on EoE has not done any of those.

 

[starvenger]

As for Natalie or any player returning from EoE, they don’t deserve to win according to the premise of the show to Outwit, Outplay, Outlast because anyone on EoE has not done any of those.

Well, it depends on how you look at it. This season they really tried to integrate EoE as a secondary game that could affect the primary game. So a person like Natalie has had a LOT of influence on the main game, even if the players don't know it. Her social game has clearly been on point on EoE, and she's done well to survive on EoE since day 3. So the case could be made IF the returnee were convincing enough.

With that said, I don't want the EoE returnee to win.

 

[starvenger]

So... finale time. Who ya got?

First things first, I didn’t hate the Edge this season. And I suppose that without some sort of losers bracket, we weren’t gonna get an all-winners season. So I get it. And let's talk about the returnee first.

Outside of Natalie, I don’t see anyone coming back as deserving of a win. Why Nat? Well, for one, she’s been there since Day 3, and has actually had influence in the game in terms of disrupting the non-eliminated players. Plus she’s built relationships with everyone on EOE. It’s not as strong as actually playing the game, but if you take out Tony and Sarah (similar to how Chris took out Devens) the path to victory is there.

(Maybe Jeremy takes it if he comes back, but I think it’s Nat or Tyson that gets it done in the return challenge.)

Taking out Tony and Sarah is the route the other three really have to go down at this point. Tony WILL win if he gets to the finals, full stop. He's played a much better game than anyone expected, embodying the Survivor motto without going through a litany of BIG MOVES. Rather, they've all been logical and systematic, cutting bait when it made the most sense to, and forcing the other players to try a BIG MOVE against him.

Sarah will win if Tony isn’t around, because she can claim a co-sign on some of his moves.

Denise has the single “I took out the Queen” point in her favour. Full credit, over two seasons she’s been to all but 5 TCs and survived, but her edit has reduced her down to bit player.

Michelle has done well to last as long as she has. I can better appreciate her win now, because she has a very good underdog game. And like Koah Rong, she appears to be peaking at the right time.

Ben... Ben has cemented his spot as one of the worst winners ever. His gameplay has been atrocious, a Specialist-level show minus the entertainment. I maintain that he won because production put him in position to find Idols, and sprung a Final Four twist at a point where his elimination was a foregone conclusion.

So, my finale rankings, in order from most likely to least likely to win:
Tony
Sarah
Natalie

Michelle
Denise

Someone on the Jury
Russell Hantz
An Inanimate Carbon Rod

Ben

 

[Diane♥Disney]

My picks
Tony
Whoever makes it back from EOE. Hoping for Boston Rob. If not Rob hoping for Natalie or Jeremy.

 

[lynxstch]

I can't stand Tony ,Tyson, or Jeremy. I am still pulling for Boston Rob to get back in and win (yeah I know, wishful thinking), if not him, I would give my votes to Natalie

 

[mickeystoontown]

I liked Ben, Jeremy and Sarah when they played before but don't like them at all this season. Ben and Jeremy more so than Sarah. Tony has grown on me a little this time around. I'd be okay if Tony won. My hope is that Boston Rob comes back and wins it all.

**Edited to add: I'd also be okay with Natalie winning. She isn't annoying like she was before.

 

[monkeydawn]

So, my finale rankings, in order from most likely to least likely to win:
Tony
Sarah
Natalie

Michelle
Denise

Someone on the Jury
Russell Hantz
An Inanimate Carbon Rod

Ben

First off, I think you have Ben too high on your winner list. LOL Did you see the EW interviews that came out yesterday or today. Yeah, you definitely have Ben too high.

I did a rewatch of the season after the last episode just to see if knowing where everyone ends up changes my perception. Ive meant to do this many times but this is the first season Ive actually done it.

I think Tony is paying kind of an uneven game, he's lucked out a couple of times but he could have easily been on the bottom quickly when his first meat shield alliance started to crumble.He'd still be a solid winner, he's made a couple of ital corrections and did have 3 immunity wins, a HII and had enough cache to borrow 3 tokens when needed.

Upon rewatch I just dont see what Sarah has done other than her fashion show. Obviously there isnt *that* much bonding going on because she isnt getting tokens when people are voted out.

Ben is even worse than I thought after rewatching, he does and says some very petty things for which we are given no reason. He comes off looking really bad and given what others are saying about his odds, I dont think you can blame the edit. Its a shame because at first, when he helped Denise find the HII, I thought we might see a friendlier Ben this season. I will say that I felt very sorry for him after the Jeremy vote off when he and Tony were talking at the well. He was so grateful to Tony and you could just tell that he didnt think he could trust anyone. Which I guess is wise in Survivor but the way he was talking just broke my heart a little.

I feel like Denise has a more solid game than she is getting credit for. Her big move as the Queenslayer is outshining the other things she has done. She found a HII, she has won immunities, she's used advantages to help protect her closest ally, she's been willing to play the part of dejected Survivor to help keep the real target calm. She's smart enough to see that Tony staying in the game is a problem and try to do something about it and then live to tell the tale.

I also feel like Michele should be getting more credit than I generally see being given to her. Then again, I was OK with her first win. I figure if you read the people well enough to act the way that needs to be done in order to win, you deserve that win. In any case she was in large part responsible for the Old Schoolers downfall. I havent forgiven her for that yet but it was a good move. She has obviously forged close enough relationships with the jury that they are willing to give her mucho tokens. I dont see the WoW jury being a so-called bitter jury but I can see them respecting her constant manueverings to do enought to not be the top choice. And when she was, she won immunity. Plus she was willing to use her advantage to try to save someone.

Who I would like to see win:
Parv, just because I fall under her spell every time she is on screen and simply cant put anyone else first, even though I think a second Ben win is more likely here.

Michele/ Denise
Natalie/ Tyson

Tony

Sarah
Ben


Who I think wins:
Tony
Natalie/ Tyson
Sarah
Denise
Michele

------------------
yeah, Ben isnt even on the list

 

[starvenger]

First off, I think you have Ben too high on your winner list. LOL Did you see the EW interviews that came out yesterday or today. Yeah, you definitely have Ben too high.

I haven't seen the EW interviews. Guess I'll need to do that.