The Rumor Tracking Thread

[Brianstl]

Two things with this...…...

First, I think this is a sign that Disney is in much more trouble than people realize.

Second, some of Iger's decisions are why Disney have made Disney more vulnerable during this crisis.

 

[Brianstl]

I don’t think Iger was forced here. Iger has tried to retire at least twice. 2013 and then prior to the fox deal but the fox deal made him stay on.

The debt from the Fox deal is really hurting them right now.

 

[rteetz]

Two things with this...…...

First, I think this is a sign that Disney is in much more trouble than people realize.

Second, some of Iger's decisions are why Disney have made Disney more vulnerable during this crisis.

I don’t think anyone really prepares/expects for a crisis like this. Sure you can prepare and expect for a recession but nobody expects the country to be shut down and the majority of your business closed because of it. It’s something that’s never really happened before.

 

[CastAStone]

The debt from the Fox deal is really hurting them right now.

How so?

 

[Brianstl]

How so?

They have to keep directing money to pay interest on that debt. When you have no money coming in that forces you to raise additional debt to pay interest on the current debt. That interest is all money that both now and in the future will have to be directed away from ongoing operations.

 

[CastAStone]

They have to keep directing money to pay interest on that debt. When you have no money coming in that forces you to raise additional debt to pay interest on the current debt. That interest is all money that both now and in the future will have to be directed away from ongoing operations.

That's all true, but for 97% of the 30 year life of many of the bonds that Disney issued, income from the Fox acquisition should pay that debt all by itself. This year is the exception. It's certainly not a good thing right now to have extra debt but I guess in my mind since Disney has a ton of equity even post Fox, I don't consider it an issue. It's not like they have any risk of defaulting in the next few years, and after that this will all be over.

 

[OKW Lover]

They have to keep directing money to pay interest on that debt. When you have no money coming in that forces you to raise additional debt to pay interest on the current debt. That interest is all money that both now and in the future will have to be directed away from ongoing operations.

Fortunately they do have money coming in.

 

[CastAStone]

I know people don’t love Jim Hill as a source but on Today’s Disney Dish podcast he mentioned that the screens had in fact finally been installed at Space 220 and that they had started bringing over CMs from other restaurants just before the furlough.

That would point to an opening within a few weeks of Epcot reopening, perhaps alongside Epcot reopening if Epcot falls behind the other parks as we’ve heard rumors around.

 

[Sweettears]

I somehow can't imagine Iger being forced to do anything. He is a very rich man. At this point it is a matter of ego and compulsion.

Despite their extravagant salaries there are many CEOs that care about current issues and want to be able to help when possible. He could have easily walked away from this

 

[Delite]

I thought fox hadn't yet brought in to much profit. Nothing near the ballooned auction cost of buying fox just to cancel pipeline projects and squash competing studio.

 

[The Pho]

Update from WDW Pro:

I now have multiple corroborating sources that have informed me of some specific things.

1) There is a worst-case scenario plan for WDW that is either developed or under development which prioritizes maintenance for the remainder of 2020 if the parks and resort are unable to reopen. This would see certain areas of the resort under much less upkeep in order to limit costs. This might also see many of the roads closed at WDW to public access.
2) Disney is currently in talks with the NBA to resume the NBA season / postseason with the players finishing all games at the ESPN complex. Details are being negotiated, and could fall through, but players would likely stay at Caribbean Beach Resort with Cayman, Sea Breeze, and Victory Way closed except to NBA and Disney vehicles. The aim would be to restart the NBA in late May to early June. Again, this could fall through, but it is being worked on and I believe some details have already begun to leak.
3) DeSantis has been in communication recently with Disney, Universal, IAAPA, etc, and is keen on getting the parks up and running as soon as safely possible. This is a marked departure from the approach the California government is taking. While Disneyland may remain closed for a long time, there is actually optimism that WDW may be able to reopen during the summer with intense restrictions and limitations.
4) The "Secure Circuit" protocol is still the preferred plan for reopening. Secure Circuit does the following:

• Magic Kingdom reopens with limited capacity, no theaters, no parades, no castle shows, no fireworks and sanitized ride vehicles after every guest exit.
• Magic Kingdom resorts reopen with strict distancing guidelines in place.
• Monorails would not operate.
• Ferries and boat transportation would operate with distancing in place.
• Health checks would be introduced at every security checkpoint. This would include temperature checks and Q&A (including locations you have traveled to in the past 14 days).
• Guests will have to sign additional legal forms clearing Disney of liability for potential exposure to COVID-19.
• EPCOT will remain closed if other parks are able to reopen prior to September.
• Hollywood Studios reopens with limited capacity, no indoor theaters, no parades, no fireworks, and sanitized ride vehicles after every guest exit.
• Animal Kingdom reopens with limited capacity, no indoor theaters, no parades, no Rivers of Light, and sanitized ride vehicles after every guest exit. Maharajah Jungle Trek would remain closed, and no close encounters with any animals at any place in the park will be permitted. Details about Animal Kingdom are still being developed.
• Transportation guidelines are still being developed.
• Dining guidelines are still being developed.
• No character meet and greets.
• No character dining.
• Water parks will not reopen while Secure Circuit is in place.
• DVC details are still being developed.
• Sanitation stations will be available throughout the parks, as well as directions on the ground to keep guests moving in proper directions for limited pedestrian crossing.
• It is likely, though not officially determined, that masks will be a requirement for adults.
• Magic Bands mandatory for all guests, fingerprints temporarily on hold.
• Non-MK resorts are unlikely to reopen until Phase 2 begins (Secure Circuit is for Phase 1).
• Disney is currently evaluating every single ride and queue to determine how and if it can operate with strict distancing guidelines. This includes determining how to move people through the queue in a safe manner even if virtual queue is in place for that particular ride. For example, even just moving through the queue of Pirates exposes guests to whatever guests passed through the queue 20 seconds prior.
• Chapek ultimately makes the call on when to reopen and how, once DeSantis gives the green light... so while the protocols for Secure Circuit have been developed, there may be changes from the top.
• What's on and what's off for future construction is now largely on how much and when Disney receives US government money, as well as the realities of the economy on the other side of this situation. Expect Disney to NOT announce cancellations of projects in 2020, but also for some projects to simply sit with no announcement. Disney is likely to be very bearish in 2020 until we get Q4 economic data.

Best regards - hope everyone is safe.

 

[j2thomason]

Update from WDW Pro:

That makes me wonder what my early June anniversary trip to the Contemporary will look like!!!

 

[pangyal]

For this “Secure Circuit” protocol that is being rumoured above, I notice that the text references Phase 1 and Phase 2. I’m wondering whether anyone knows whether that refers to the recently announced phases for opening the US, or is that an internal metric?

 

[CastAStone]

For this “Secure Circuit” protocol that is being rumoured above, I notice that the text references Phase 1 and Phase 2. I’m wondering whether anyone knows whether that refers to the recently announced phases for opening the US, or is that an internal metric?

Based on subsequent posts at WDWmagic, it is internal, not based on CDC.

 

[Iowamomof4]

If those phased openings come to pass, I sure hope they continue to extend APs until they have all 4 parks operating and all resorts open. Just doesn't seem right to start the clock on APs when they are operating on such a limited basis. I guess it matters to me because we'll only have about 7 weeks left on our APs whenever that clock starts ticking.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

If those phased openings come to pass, I sure hope they continue to extend APs until they have all 4 parks operating and all resorts open. Just doesn't seem right to start the clock on APs when they are operating on such a limited basis. I guess it matters to me because we'll only have about 7 weeks left on our APs whenever that clock starts ticking.

Yeah that has been something I have thought of with regards to this and one reason why I think it more likely that they open all 4 parks at once but with some limitations but not crazy extreme. Same thing would go for regular tickets - are you charging full price for partial experience?

Only way I can see this work is they have a "soft" opening period that doesn't start the clock on APs and has a special entry ticket at a lower price

 

[zorro77]

Do you think all resort hotel on Disney properties would be open or on limited opening. We next arrive later in year.

 

[Runnsally]

That makes me wonder what my early June anniversary trip to the Contemporary will look like!!!

It will look like a Griswold Family Vacation

 

[Runnsally]

Update from WDW Pro:

I completely agree that these precautions are needed, but this sounds like an awful experience. Outside of locals in it for the novelty, I can’t imagine many people would pay money to travel for this unless there are crazy discounts. And if there are crazy discounts, opening in this way may not make financial sense.

 

[rteetz]

Do you think all resort hotel on Disney properties would be open or on limited opening. We next arrive later in year.

When they do open I do not expect all of the resort to open as well. I think it’s going to be phased and they’ll ease back into things.