Third US case of coronavirus confirmed in OC

[LilyJC]

While I agree with you 100% that the flu is what we should concerned with, I do not see how he came up with 7% mortality. If it was 7% of all who got it, the deaths would be 1,050,000. If it is of those hospitalized , it would be closer to 9,800.

Using the math he used to get the 2% for the coronavirus (which I can calculate), the mortaility rate is 8200/15 million = 0.054% (not 5%).

Statistics are a fickle thing. So many different ways to do calculations. The mortality data is based on the number of influenza-positive pneumonia cases (deaths/total cases=~7%). It was 7.4% for week 1, 7.0% for week 2, and 6.7% for week 3. Flu is very difficult to calculate the exact mortality rate because health professionals do not report positive flu tests to the Public Health Department. The only mandated deaths to be reported are pediatric patients, which is why we know exactly how many pediatric patients have died. (Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance: Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on January 30, 2020, 6.7% of the deaths occurring during the week ending January 18, 2020 (week 3) were due to P&I). The pneumonia reported is pneumonia due to influenza, not all pneumonias. People don’t die because they have the Flu, they die because it affects the lungs and can lead to pneumonia. This is why it is more common for infants and elderly to die.

If you were to take every estimated positive flu test and calculate the mortality rate, it would be extremely low. The mortality rate is typically calculated based on patients who require hospitalization due to influenza since there is no accurate way to determine the total number of cases of influenza. Everything posted was from data reported from the CDC and WHO. Nothing was calculated, and for anyone interested in more info feel free to check out the CDC and WHO sites.

Those coronavirus numbers out of China are already out of date. There are over 9000 confirmed cases and over 200 deaths as of last night.

Yep, that's why the dates were actually cited on the post. And I believe the number of confirmed cases in the US is at 6 as of this morning.

Influenza has a mortality rate of 0.1%.

I would love to see the facts to support the rate you posted.

 

[Lewdannie]

Tokyo have suspended face characters

 

[piglet1979]

I just read that the US is up to 7 confirmed. This last one confirmed is in Santa Clara

 

[snappy]

The more you mention about this woman the more I’m astounded by how selfish she is. Between this and knowingly flying when she suspected she had the virus.

Hell I’ve had the flu for the past week and pretty much holed myself up in my apartment once I realized A) I don’t really have the energy to do anything and B) even if half my campus is infected already I don’t feel like being the one responsible for causing more illness.

I agree. I put this in the Do unto others as you would have them do unto you category.

 

[Brianstl]

Statistics are a fickle thing. So many different ways to do calculations. The mortality data is based on the number of influenza-positive pneumonia cases (deaths/total cases=~7%). It was 7.4% for week 1, 7.0% for week 2, and 6.7% for week 3. Flu is very difficult to calculate the exact mortality rate because health professionals do not report positive flu tests to the Public Health Department. The only mandated deaths to be reported are pediatric patients, which is why we know exactly how many pediatric patients have died. (Pneumonia and Influenza (P&I) Mortality Surveillance: Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on January 30, 2020, 6.7% of the deaths occurring during the week ending January 18, 2020 (week 3) were due to P&I). The pneumonia reported is pneumonia due to influenza, not all pneumonias. People don’t die because they have the Flu, they die because it affects the lungs and can lead to pneumonia. This is why it is more common for infants and elderly to die.

If you were to take every estimated positive flu test and calculate the mortality rate, it would be extremely low. The mortality rate is typically calculated based on patients who require hospitalization due to influenza since there is no accurate way to determine the total number of cases of influenza. Everything posted was from data reported from the CDC and WHO. Nothing was calculated, and for anyone interested in more info feel free to check out the CDC and WHO sites.



Yep, that's why the dates were actually cited on the post. And I believe the number of confirmed cases in the US is at 6 as of this morning.



I would love to see the facts to support the rate you posted.

You can do your own research. I don't have time right now. The number you posted was the percentage of all deaths that are caused by pneumonia and influenza. Not mortality rate of those infected with influenza. Also, the leading cause of death with Novel Coronavirus is pneumonia which just like any other infection that causes pneumonia. Those deaths will get included in any future revisions to the percentage you cited.

 

[LilyJC]

Here’s a super informative video:

You can do your own research. I don't have time right now. The number you posted was the percentage of all deaths that are caused by pneumonia and influenza. Not mortality rate of those infected with influenza. Also, the leading cause of death with Novel Coronavirus is pneumonia which just like any other infection that causes pneumonia. Those deaths will get included in any future revisions to the percentage you cited.

I have the accurate research. Thanks.

 

[Brianstl]

Here’s a super informative video:

I have the accurate research. Thanks.

The problem is you don’t understand what the research is actually saying.

 

[Malcon10t]

The problem is you don’t understand what the research is actually saying.

I don't think anyone will convince them otherwise. Here is what WHO says:

"In the United States, the mortality rate among people infected with influenza is about 0.13 percent, the Centers for Disease Control has calculated."

https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-scientists-do-and-don-t-know-about-wuhan-coronavirus-so-far

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Just popping in to encourage everyone in this thread to keep the discussion and debate calm, respectful, and courteous. This has been a very informative thread and, I'm sure, very helpful to many readers. Thank you to everyone for countering the hysteria and misinformation that is so prevalent right now. Let's keep up the good work to help keep DISers informed and well prepared for their DLR trips.

 

[Aurora0427]

So, this OC patient is being kept in a hospital down the street from me.

She apparently visited 3 places while ill with a fever:

99 Ranch Market (a very popular Asian supermarket chain)

South Coast Plaza (Orange County's largest indoor mall), more specifically a Hot Pot restaurant there, but also apparently several stores

Diamond Jamboree shopping center (a HUGE Asian complex of restaurants and shops)

She potentially infected dozens of people by visiting these very crowded places, which are all in a city that has a population of over 200,000. It's my home, and I'm worried now.

Never mind. My initial statement was a bit over the top.

 

[Malcon10t]

If she infects anyone and they die, she should be charged with murder.

That would be hard to do. Before we condemn this person, we have to consider she may not have known she was infected.

And if she should be charged with murder, what about the person who sends their child to schoo or goes to work or shoppingl with what is later diagnosed with the flu, who then infects someone else who cannot handle it and passes away? What about people who don't immunize and allow their child with chicken pox or whooping cough to expose another person who is immune compromised?

 

[Malcon10t]

So, this OC patient is being kept in a hospital down the street from me.

She apparently visited 3 places while ill with a fever:

99 Ranch Market (a very popular Asian supermarket chain)

South Coast Plaza (Orange County's largest indoor mall), more specifically a Hot Pot restaurant there, but also apparently several stores

Diamond Jamboree shopping center (a HUGE Asian complex of restaurants and shops)

She potentially infected dozens of people by visiting these very crowded places, which are all in a city that has a population of over 200,000. It's my home, and I'm worried now.

I've been hunting for this information, can you give me any sites where you saw/read this? One reason I am asking is the only person in Orange to have this is a 50yo male, and they are saying he returned from Wuhan and went to the hospital here. He is in very good condition, they are just keeping him isolated.

 

[Aurora0427]

That would be hard to do. Before we condemn this person, we have to consider she may not have known she was infected.

And if she should be charged with murder, what about the person who sends their child to schoo or goes to work or shoppingl with what is later diagnosed with the flu, who then infects someone else who cannot handle it and passes away? What about people who don't immunize and allow their child with chicken pox or whooping cough to expose another person who is immune compromised?

If this is true, and this woman came back from the epicenter of a pandemic, and knowingly left her house with a fever, which is one of the signs of the pandemic, there should be repercussions for her.

My initial statement is definitely over the top, but people who leave their homes when they are running a fever and came from the epicenter of a pandemic of a virus we don’t know that much about, really really make me angry.

Hopefully this isn’t true because if it is, you can almost guarantee she’s infected someone, given how easily this virus seems to spread.

In regards to your last paragraph, my comments on that subject aren’t appropriate for this message board.

 

[midnight star]

Going to the park tomorrow. I am usually pretty vigilant with hand washing and sanitizing, but I'm going to amp it up a little bit.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Going to the park tomorrow. I am usually pretty vigilant with hand washing and sanitizing, but I'm going to amp it up a little bit.

Given that it's cold and flu season in general, it certainly can't hurt to be careful and more aware about not touching your eyes and your face! Have a great and healthy time in the parks!

 

[LeiaOfAlderaan]

I've been hunting for this information, can you give me any sites where you saw/read this? One reason I am asking is the only person in Orange to have this is a 50yo male, and they are saying he returned from Wuhan and went to the hospital here.

I’m wondering about this too, as I also read that it is a man in his 50’s. The only place I’ve read otherwise is on these boards. My guess is it’s a rumor spreading on other social media sites and being repeated here.

 

[tink89]

I've been hunting for this information, can you give me any sites where you saw/read this? One reason I am asking is the only person in Orange to have this is a 50yo male, and they are saying he returned from Wuhan and went to the hospital here. He is in very good condition, they are just keeping him isolated.

I think I have only seen this on social media a few days ago. This Article online states it is a rumor and I don't think it says anything about it being confirmed. I have only read and seen on the news about 1 man in OC

 

[StormyCA]

Well, I don't know about the Corona Virus, but thanks for all the reminders to go get my flu shot! I'm considered high risk (age and asthma) and I always put it off. Silly, really.

I've heard that face masks are not as effective as we think they are as far as preventing the spread of disease (other than keeping you from sticking fingers in mouths and noses). That they really aren't effective after about 15 mins of breathing through them. The only really effective barriers are the fitted ones with filters.

I'm retired so I can be choosy about when and where I go out and avoid crowds. I'll continue to do this and avoid places I think I need to avoid. When I worked I was 'public facing' and can tell you that I have had a heck of a lot less flu and colds since I retired! Of course, the last two times I was really sick with a respiratory virus was about 1 week after a DL vacation. Both BFF and I got it.

Just another bit of 'musing'....at one point in time schools told parents to keep kids home at the least sign of a communicable disease. But there came a time (after they changed the school attendance money criteria) that we were actually encouraged to bring our kids in sick for roll call then take them right home. The school no longer got their daily rate if a child was out sick.

 

[Etonduf]

You can do your own research. I don't have time right now.

So you made that number up. Gotcha.

It's odd to claim to be basing your views on data if you're unwilling to at least broadly explain where you got the data. When I read about a study in a peer-reviewed journal, the researchers don't tell the readers to go pound sand and figure it out for themselves. Because, you know, then they wouldn't have any credibility. Nobody's asking you to do more research--you've obviously already done research and found a 0.1% mortality rate. Or, you just made it up.

Edit to add, for future readers: poster linked his source here: https://www.disboards.com/threads/third-us-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-oc.3788838/post-61510496

 

[Brianstl]

So you made that number up. Gotcha.

It's odd to claim to be basing your views on data if you're unwilling to at least broadly explain where you got the data. When I read about a study in a peer-reviewed journal, the researchers don't tell the readers to go pound sand and figure it out for themselves. Because, you know, then they wouldn't have any credibility. Nobody's asking you to do more research--you've obviously already done research and found a 0.1% mortality rate. Or, you just made it up.

No, someone later posted a link verifying what I posted. I didn’t have the time right then to go looking for it. Thanks for thinking I made it up though.