What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[BlueRibbon]

The cruise industry has been given the sneer of disgust from society these past few months. However, New York NEVER stopped subway service. For everyone's talk of social distancing, of how cruise ships should fend for themselves if there's an outbreak, NY city's subways for some reason have been given a pass. I've been on both cruises, and the NY Subway, and I think "I" know which one is cleaner....

Just an observation...

 

[smmco]

I listen to these task force docs Dr Fauci and Dr B. I get the impression from many of their comments that this virus is seasonal.

 

[tidefan]

What is weird with this virus is that you have hotspots that are overrun, and then you have places where the hospitals are having to lay off staff because they are only running at 30-40% capacity.

I almost think that they are not going to have to take a state by state approach, but rather a county-by-county one. But even then, we won’t start approaching anything that looks “normal” for awhile.

That being said, I do see where DCL could run limited sailings IF and WHEN the Abbott labs testing is ramped you enough where they could have test results in under 10 minutes. I saw Etihad Airlines is doing something similar (though be it serology tests). I could see them doing 1 or 2 ships closed loop to only Castaway IF the Bahamian government would allow them to run for a period with only DCL employees (so no one went back to Abaco). That would satisfy the foreign port and not risk port born infection. However, I think this only happens when you have rapid tests and that is still probably a few months away.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

I listen to these task force docs Dr Fauci and Dr B. I get the impression from many of their comments that this virus is seasonal.

They don't know that yet. There's evidence that hot weather or cold weather makes no difference.

What they've recently discovered is that the virus shed due to coughing doesn't last as long if it's outdoors on a sunny, humid day. But it does still survive for a short time, even then. Guayaquil, Ecuador (extremely hot 90 degrees today and humid it's raining) is having a major outbreak.

 

[aggiedog]

Singapore, too, and it's warm and humid year round and all day long. There's practically no temp variation, as per Dd who did a study abroad there last year.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I love how confident you are that you will live to 80+, the future is never guaranteed and you could be dead in 6 months from a number of reasons.

It's not confidence that I am guaranteed to live until 80+ years old. I base that simply on my own family genetics. I have four grandparents. One lived until his early 80s. He was a smoker and died of lung cancer. My other grandfather lived into his mid 80s...never smoked or drank, died of "natural causes" (which means...who knows?). My grandmothers both lived longer...one until her late 80s, the other into her mid 90s. All four had issues as they aged, mild hypertensive diseases, gout, one had type 2 diabetes.

The women lived longer, because as most women do, they take better care of themselves than men do, even to this day. So, my "confidence" that I'll survive into my 80s is based on my genes and how I take care of myself today. My husband's genes are even better than mine. 3 out of 4 of his grandparents lived well into their 90s! And we've had to base our financial planning on those facts. Facts....how long our grandparents lived. Facts...that all four of our parents are still alive. Facts...that a novel coronavirus is now a pandemic ravaging our planet and we have no treatment or vaccine. I know....facts are hard sometimes. But science, facts....don't lie. They are what they are.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

Who exactly are you protesting against ...You get to decide.

Okay, I'll explain my easy to read post:

1. I'm not protesting anything now. I said I would if these restrictions on our freedoms continued for more than a few months.
2. In that case I would be protesting against government restrictions on our freedoms to go where we like and do what we like.
3. No, I don't currently get to decide as my state is under a stay at home order and many businesses and types of travel have been closed down by order of the government.

Duh.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

Nevermind, sorry I got snippy.

 

[smmco]

They don't know that yet. There's evidence that hot weather or cold weather makes no difference.

What they've recently discovered is that the virus shed due to coughing doesn't last as long if it's outdoors on a sunny, humid day. But it does still survive for a short time, even then. Guayaquil, Ecuador (extremely hot 90 degrees today and humid it's raining) is having a major outbreak.

Just quoting what they said. They seem to think that and they're the ones behind this whole abomination of a shutdown.

 

[gotomu212]

The cruise industry has been given the sneer of disgust from society these past few months. However, New York NEVER stopped subway service. For everyone's talk of social distancing, of how cruise ships should fend for themselves if there's an outbreak, NY city's subways for some reason have been given a pass. I've been on both cruises, and the NY Subway, and I think "I" know which one is cleaner....

Just an observation...

The subway is how nurses, hospital workers, police, and restaurant workers get to work. Many front line workers could never afford cabs/ride shares to get to lower paying jobs. The subway is vital for keeping essential services running. A cruise is a completely optional holiday service. Surely they can’t be compared.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

For the life of me I can't figure out why people are willing to give up their freedoms, income, travel, and enjoyment of life for a virus that has a low mortality rate.

Quite possibly there are people (if not themselves, they have loved ones) who are at significant risk to be part of that "low mortality rate". I think anyone who has lost someone to this virus would be willing to stay at home for as long as it takes if they could get that person back.

Yes, I'm one of the higher risk people. I'm willing to stay home, with limited personal contact with others (other than family I live with) until such time as I can journey out again.

 

[hellow]

Quite possibly there are people (if not themselves, they have loved ones) who are at significant risk to be part of that "low mortality rate". I think anyone who has lost someone to this virus would be willing to stay at home for as long as it takes if they could get that person back.

Yes, I'm one of the higher risk people. I'm willing to stay home, with limited personal contact with others (other than family I live with) until such time as I can journey out again.

And you should do what is right for you. However, not everyone can do what you are willing to do or even want to. This is and always has been a free country. Each person should be able to make the decision for themselves how much risk they are willing to take.

 

[smmco]

Quite possibly there are people (if not themselves, they have loved ones) who are at significant risk to be part of that "low mortality rate". I think anyone who has lost someone to this virus would be willing to stay at home for as long as it takes if they could get that person back.

Yes, I'm one of the higher risk people. I'm willing to stay home, with limited personal contact with others (other than family I live with) until such time as I can journey out again.

I think anyone that has lost their job their, their business and their ability to feed their family would like to go back to work. The people that have lost their jobs far exceed the people that have lost their lives, and the suffering from economic collapse or another war will far exceed the people that died from the virus.
My mom is a high-risk person, but she would never want her grandkids standing in a food line so she could live another few years. Thankfully she's not that selfish. Do what you have to do stay safe, but don't ruin it for future generations.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

And you should do what is right for you. However, not everyone can do what you are willing to do or even want to. This is and always has been a free country. Each person should be able to make the decision for themselves how much risk they are willing to take.

And, if those people get COVID-19 because they don't (or won't) try to make things safer for everyone, are they willing to say "OK, I won't take up that hospital bed because I took the risk of catching it"?

 

[hellow]

And, if those people get COVID-19 because they don't (or won't) try to make things safer for everyone, are they willing to say "OK, I won't take up that hospital bed because I took the risk of catching it"?

I know that is the thing everyone wants to say now, but it doesn't hold water. We have never withheld medical care when people do illegal drugs, take part in risky sports, drive too fast, etc... so I am not sure why this is something where we will suddenly withhold medical treatment?? I think too many people were listening to The View this week...

 

[tidefan]

I think all you guys have valid points, but it gets back to the idea that you really need to take this almost county by county. Here in Alabama, we have a couple of hot spots, but we also have areas where the hospitals are running at 30-40% occupancy because, a) no one wants to be near a COVID-19 patient, and b) they've cancelled everything that isn't absolutely, positively needed. However, we are, according to IMHE, at our peak. UAB, the largest hospital in the state (which is also attracting patients as they are a Resdemivir Clinical Trial site) has over 1,000 beds, but only has 38 COVID-19 patients, about half of those in ICU. Huntsville Hospital in North Alabama had in fact furloughed 2,000 employees due to this:

David Spillers, the Hospital CEO, Said the number of Coronavirus Cases in north Alabama are currently much lower than what they originally anticipated.

"We have been blessed as a community. We have been ready for a large number of inpatients with COVID, and we have not seen that, so our volumes today in our hospital are about half what we would have normally been seeing prior to COVID-19," he said.

Spillers said there are plenty of hospital beds available system-wide, and there are far fewer people are hospitalized with Coronavirus than they originally anticipated. He said with a smaller patient load, and elective surgeries on hold right now, some hospital employees are out of work temporarily.

"It's a difficult process. The hardest thing you ever have to do is reduce people's hours or furlough them, but hopefully we will start bringing people back on board soon," he said.

Spillers said he didn't have an exact count on how many employees were working on reduced hours. He said throughout the hospital system about 2,000 employees were furloughed.

So, areas like this, some easing makes more sense. However, in Mobile County, cases are still rising (Mobile has the nations 2nd largest Mardi Gras behind New Orleans and many people think this was a driver), so it makes more sense to keep things tighter there. Next door, though in suburban Baldwin County, there is maybe 1/6th of the cases that they have in Mobile county, so go figure...

 

[mousefan73]

I completely agree. I've followed every rule and will continue to do so as my state gradually reopens this spring & early summer. But if they were to try to stop us from living normally beyond that time, that's when I'd join the protests.

Every person has the right to live their own life. Shutting leisure travel and amusements down and preventing a full enjoyment of life for everyone for 1 - 2 years? That would be robbing many people of joy during what would have been the last few years of their own lives (regardless of the virus), and robbing others of high quality time with their kids during what for many (like me) are the last few years of their children's time at home before going to college. No one has the right to take all of that away from us.

Agree 100%. My mom is turning 70. No illness only she is slowing down. Also her mother started dementia at 75. My mom and I were to be on the Disney Wonder to Hawaii in 2 weeks. My mom has in her mind realizes there’s a chance the next few years might very well be her last golden years of really living life and that means traveling/ cruising. We pray that leisure activities such as those return ASAP- even with risk. She is willing to take that risk. At her age and possible future outlook has no time for a long pause.

cruise lines will come back as soon as authorities allow them. There is demand- sure lower and mainly due to the uncertainty of travel interruptions. Once that issue is solved , ships and parks will fill.

I think also people really will look at the overall risk of illness here. Just my pure speculation but I can see a lot of younger healthier people getting the flu shots from now on that never did. My mom hasn’t had a flu shot the past two years and she’s 69. I know shame on her but she’s let it slip. Two months ago when this all started she went and got her flu and pneumonia shot. Even though that won’t help with corona it does help with her overall health. Some cases of corona with being sick for a week or two with high fever and horrible chills is also what can happen with a bad normal flu. So it would be interesting to see the data in a year or two and see how many deaths from the normal flu actually went down. And if you combine both corona illnesses and deaths compared to the normal flu if there might be some improvements overall with the bigger picture of overall community health. (Take overall flu/ Covid deaths). No please don’t misunderstand me I’m not comparing the flu and covid here. I’m just saying for overall public health, if maybe the awareness will get more people to get flu shots and bring the overall deaths from these type of diseases down.

Oh and I’m sorry I went off topic with my post in this thread but to answer the original question my optimistic guess on when travel return to normal will be October November of this year. But a somewhat new normal. Masks/ temp checks.

 

[dvcgirl67]

The cruise industry has been given the sneer of disgust from society these past few months. However, New York NEVER stopped subway service. For everyone's talk of social distancing, of how cruise ships should fend for themselves if there's an outbreak, NY city's subways for some reason have been given a pass. I've been on both cruises, and the NY Subway, and I think "I" know which one is cleaner....

Just an observation...

LOL! You're comparing the cruise industry with NYC subway system? First of all, have you seen any footage of the NYC metro lately? It's not exactly packed. It is carrying essential workers to....work.

 

[mousefan73]

And, if those people get COVID-19 because they don't (or won't) try to make things safer for everyone, are they willing to say "OK, I won't take up that hospital bed because I took the risk of catching it"?

Then we can also argue smokers and the obese should get to the back of the line too. As many illnesses they have are lifestyle choices.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Okay, I'll explain my easy to read post:

1. I'm not protesting anything now. I said I would if these restrictions on our freedoms continued for more than a few months.
2. In that case I would be protesting against government restrictions on our freedoms to go where we like and do what we like.
3. No, I don't currently get to decide as my state is under a stay at home order and many businesses and types of travel have been closed down by order of the government.

Duh.

I was being facetious.

I understand that there are people who aren't happy with the restrictions. I truly do. It's hard. However, it's necessary. And governors are having to make very difficult, yet necessary decisions for the public good right now.

Watching the protests might make some of you feel great. Good for them right? They're exercising their civil liberties to protest, by milling around in tight circles, most without masks on, in the middle of a pandemic. Some are carrying AR-15s. That visual might make a lot of Americans, or 40%-ish by my measure, happy....but the rest of us thinks it's crazy. You see protestors exercising their civil rights. I see Darwinism at work.

I haven't seen any wealthy Fortune 500 CEOs at any of the "protests" yet. Let me know when that happens. I have seen an awful lot of those people on CNBC lately, Skyping in from their mansions in the Hamptons.

Along that same line of thinking, here's an idea. How about we ask Bob Iger, and the new Bob who is "in charge" (but not really)....let's ask the Bobs when they'd feel comfortable setting sail on one of their packed DCL ships. When do you think that might be? It would engender a lot of confidence if they in fact did just that. Get on the first DCL ship out of Florida, with their extended families on board.

I guess we could also ask The Bobs how they're going to open up a massive resort area, packed with tourists, when Major League Baseball is considering quarantining all players to hotels in Arizona where they will play games in stadiums, without fans. Players will need to have frequent testing and if/when one tests positive, they'd have to isolate for 14 days....etc.

Or we can ask the Bobs how they plan to handle crowd control in a resort that is notoriously packed, when Japan has had to postpone the Olympics because they realized, slowly, that it was impossible to do so and keep people safe. The answer might be something close to what Iger has already said. Face masks, temperature checks. Isolating sick guests to their rooms. Sounds.....fun?