Will CCV prices slump like PV?

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

I think one of the reasons that Poly is weakening is that while many buy DVC based on the studio value some of those discover that a 1 or 2br has a strong attraction for a variety of reasons and those are not practical options at Poly

We stayed at poly on rented points and while it was amazing we realized we really wanted a 1 bedroom long term. So we bought at BLT. I think most people buying at Disney don’t do as much due diligence as we did so they jump in calculating based on studio pricing.

 

[soniam]

I am not advocating anyone to purchase now, but all DVC resorts have at least 20+ years of "life" remaining. I can't imagine life in general will still be impacted significantly by COVID-19 a year from now, which leaves plenty of years for people to enjoy their DVC. As for other pandemics in the future, who knows? But we can't live the rest of our lives in fear because of the "next" pandemic, IMHO.

LAX

Loss of timeshare usage would be my least concern if we are still having a consistent pandemic 10+ years from now

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

PVB is older and has had more contracts for sale for longer. A larger supply of contracts usually drives down prices. I've been noticing a lot more CCV contracts coming up for sale which is normal once it gets to be a few years from purchase. With that larger supply the prices will probably drop - it would be my expectation barring something being done by DVC to artificially support them.

 

[viper17d]

I tend to believe the COVID-19 economic impact will extend beyond the virus itself into 2022 and ultimately be worse than the Great Recession.

With that lens, I believe all resort resale prices will be hammered. ROFR will be practically non-existent since Disney just won’t have the cash, not to mention they won’t be selling many points at $175+.

I could see CCV going down to $100 and the vast majority of resorts will be sub-$100.

 

[The Jackal]

Yes assuming that, but I think if we took a poll of all DVC owners most stay in studios. This is the whole reason DVC build Poly the way they did....... and taking the cheapest route possible as well, to maximize profits.

I thought the reason Poly stayed with studios was because Disney was going to have to upgrade the main sewer pipe or something like that if they put in 1 and 2 bedrooms. DVC should build resorts with a higher percent of it being studios. They should have a lot of data by now to figure out the proper ratio.

 

[Matty B13]

I thought the reason Poly stayed with studios was because Disney was going to have to upgrade the main sewer pipe or something like that if they put in 1 and 2 bedrooms. DVC should build resorts with a higher percent of it being studios. They should have a lot of data by now to figure out the proper ratio.

Like I said cheapest route, they could have upgraded the sewer main if they wanted to spend the money. There were also a lot of other theories floated about why they only built studios. They built studios with the point hungry bungalows for a reason, they thought because of the nostalgia that everyone has for the Poly they could sell it with just studios.... and they did in about 2 years.

 

[bookwormde]

I thought the reason Poly stayed with studios was because Disney was going to have to upgrade the main sewer pipe or something like that if they put in 1 and 2 bedrooms. DVC should build resorts with a higher percent of it being studios. They should have a lot of data by now to figure out the proper ratio.

this would assume that DVD is balancing types for expected demand. I think it is much more likely that they want just enough not to raise red flags for the average new buyer while limiting the cannibalization of cash rooms. DVD sell on the promise of studios being cheaper than hotel rooms, yet typically studios represent less than 25% of total points even with average lock off usage

For whatever reason it occurred Poly was a 1 off

 

[heapmaster]

I hope they do...I want to add on.

 

[Beazle]

There is a BCV currently for sale in the mid £120s - presumably the seller would take £119.

Amazing.

 

[minthorne]

I think the prices will slump more...

 

[The Jackal]

I wonder if the resale restrictions are keeping CCV resale high? Only time will tell.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

PVB is older and has had more contracts for sale for longer. A larger supply of contracts usually drives down prices. I've been noticing a lot more CCV contracts coming up for sale which is normal once it gets to be a few years from purchase. With that larger supply the prices will probably drop - it would be my expectation barring something being done by DVC to artificially support them.

I wonder if part of it is people realizing how hard it can be to get a studio there. We on the boards are aware of this but a majority of owners probably didnt know most of the points are in the Cabins. Now they are wanting to sell. I'm sure its a little bit of everything, Studio difficulty, Covid(majority of buyers probably are financed and some probably lost their jobs sadly), Resort has only been open for 3 years or so and now new buyers getting a feel on if they liked the purchase or not, Higher buy-in cost of the recent DVC resorts sold so sellers not willing to take a large loss keeping resale price higher.

 

[skier_pete]

It's all about supply and demand. When a resort first sells out, there's not a lot of contracts on the market, so supply is low. After 3-4 years, more people are selling contracts as they realize they are not getting what they were hoping out of it, so yes I would expect this to happen at every resort around 3-4 years after they sell out.

 

[Yinn]

I think the issue of CCV having so few studios to reserve is what is going to hurt the resale value. A lot of direct buyers who thought they could get in at 100 points a year will start having a hard time finding studios and will need to book 1 bedrooms or try their luck at the 7 month mark. Also, first time direct owners after a year or 2 start to realize how expensive a Disney vacation is every year and either can't afford it, or don't want to spend the money, then they want to sell their contracts. Most of the resale contracts I have bought, were from owners that only had the contracts for a year or 2.

Ironic...

PVB supposedly has low prices because it only has studios. But CCV not having enough studios is going to hurt resale...

The reality is we’re all speculating here. Why did BWV take a $20/point dive in the last quarter when BCV stayed relatively the same? Same locale, similar dues, same room offerings, cheaper points per night. Did the clown pool suddenly come to life to bring the cost down $40/pt compared to BCV?

Sometimes it’s just the wave of supply. Prices will dip when there’s a lot of options on the same contract. Historically, that means the market is flooded from direct sales, and even after sold out the wave of foreclosures, initial buyers hit the resale market and the prices drop. It takes several years for the ownership pool to stabilize.

I expect the same from CCV before Disney’s price increases and eventual ROFR will support the bottom on CCV. But even then, there’s no guarantee as a flood of similar contracts can drive the price down as we’re seeing With BWV.

 

[CastAStone]

PVB supposedly has low prices because it only has studios. But CCV not having enough studios is going to hurt resale...

I had understood both of them to have a similar problem with too many points in incredibly expensive redemption options and too few in affordable ones: PVB has too high a percentage of points in Bungalows and CCV same problem in Cabins.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

I had understood both of them to have a similar problem with too many points in incredibly expensive redemption options and too few in affordable ones: PVB has too high a percentage of points in Bungalows and CCV same problem in Cabins.

PVB's problem isn't the Bungalows extra points IMO, its the room category options and the higher point costs a night for a studio. Studio availability at 7 months is one of the easier options out of the DVC resorts. CCV's big problem like u said is the Cabins points plus not many studios on top of Lower Studio point costs.

 

[SL6827]

I too believe that a lot of owners of CCV are selling because they can't get the studio they want. I would never buy into there because of that.

 

[Yinn]

I had understood both of them to have a similar problem with too many points in incredibly expensive redemption options and too few in affordable ones

Well here's the cheapest room available in the cheapest season for the WDW resorts.

VGF: 17pts/night - Standard Studio/Adventure
PVB: 16 pts/night - Standard Studio/Adventure
CCV: 15 pts/night - Studio/Adventure
BRV: 15 pts/night - Studio/Adventure
BCV: 15 pts/night - Studio/Adventure
BLT: 14 pts/night - Standard Studio/Adventure
RIV: 11pts/night - Tower Studio/Adventure
SSR: 11pts/night - Studio/Adventure
OKW: 10pts/night - Studio/Adventure
BWV: 10pts/night - Standard Studio/Adventure
AKV: 8 pts/night - Value Studio/Adventure

It's about a point difference per night in terms of affordability and nobody is really saying that the rooms are unaffordable at VGF, BRV, BCV, or BLT.

PVB has too high a percentage of points in Bungalows and CCV same problem in Cabins.

This would imply that all the Bungalow and Cabin points have to go somewhere, and it is likely to cause availability issues as they flood into the studios. I can't speak for CCV but if you take a look at the availability thread (https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-bd-charts-september-2019-2-bd-added.3689931/)

PVB Studios can be obtained as far out as 5-6 months. About the same as BLT and AKV. So it wouldn't be availability that's a concern.

We can even point to the 1BRs, but my PVB points work just as well at other location 1BR. It's also contradictory to what we say about SSR/OKW and AKV. All three have enough rooms for the points. All three have cheap affordable rooms. All three have multiple room categories. But what's the common complaint about those and the #1 reason for why it's cheaper? It's far and inconvenient. Neither PVB nor CCV have that issue.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

Well here's the cheapest room available in the cheapest season for the WDW resorts.

VGF: 17pts/night - Standard Studio/Adventure
PVB: 16 pts/night - Standard Studio/Adventure
CCV: 15 pts/night - Studio/Adventure
BRV: 15 pts/night - Studio/Adventure
BCV: 15 pts/night - Studio/Adventure
BLT: 14 pts/night - Standard Studio/Adventure
RIV: 11pts/night - Tower Studio/Adventure
SSR: 11pts/night - Studio/Adventure
OKW: 10pts/night - Studio/Adventure
BWV: 10pts/night - Standard Studio/Adventure
AKV: 8 pts/night - Value Studio/Adventure

It's about a point difference per night in terms of affordability and nobody is really saying that the rooms are unaffordable at VGF, BRV, BCV, or BLT.



This would imply that all the Bungalow and Cabin points have to go somewhere, and it is likely to cause availability issues as they flood into the studios. I can't speak for CCV but if you take a look at the availability thread (https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-bd-charts-september-2019-2-bd-added.3689931/)

PVB Studios can be obtained as far out as 5-6 months. About the same as BLT and AKV. So it wouldn't be availability that's a concern.

We can even point to the 1BRs, but my PVB points work just as well at other location 1BR. It's also contradictory to what we say about SSR/OKW and AKV. All three have enough rooms for the points. All three have cheap affordable rooms. All three have multiple room categories. But what's the common complaint about those and the #1 reason for why it's cheaper? It's far and inconvenient. Neither PVB nor CCV have that issue.

I don't think it's fair just to take the cheapest season and compare. Take June/July for instance. Weekdays/weekend at CCV are 17/21 points a night vs PVB standard view studio is 23/27. Thats a nice chunk of points over a week.

 

[Yinn]

I don't think it's fair just to take the cheapest season and compare. Take June/July for instance. Weekdays/weekend at CCV are 17/21 points a night vs PVB standard view studio is 23/27. Thats a nice chunk of points over a week.

The point spread is larger but the same applies. VGF is 23/27. 19/22 for BLT. 18/22 for BCV. 17/21 for BRV. CCV is still cheaper than BCV and BLT. PVB is just as "unaffordable" as VGF.