Coronavirus and DVC prices

[DVC Fanatic]

From my unscientific method, I feel that resale prices are already starting to fall. I spent the better part of February stalking different contracts on different resale sites. I was looking for one UY particularly, but open to my second UY. The amount of inventory has significantly increased over the last two weeks compared to what I was looking at previously and the prices are coming down. Many contracts now say reduced and the new contracts are listed much lower than new contracts last month. I stuck to my firm price and got the deal I was looking for before the prices dropped and inventory increased. I feel like the prices will drop lower than the price I got, but I am happy with the price I got before all of this madness.

Everyone needs to make the personal decision to sell or buy right now. Wish everyone the best of luck.

 

[TraderSamWDW]

Boomers make up 20% percent of the population and own 60% of assets (ballpark figures). They are financially best placed to buy, enjoy, and take a bath selling luxury items without hardship. Bestow sympathy on some other, more persecuted group, if you must.

No. I do not divide my sympathy based on wealth

 

[Future_WorldPhonencian]

What concrete examples of price drops are ppl seeing? Some examples of listings might be helpful to gauge our perception versus the reality of the resale market. Just a quick glance at AKV listings shows maybe $2-3 less per point on average then when we were looking 2 months ago. I also feel like there are fewer listings overall. DVC owners arent dumb. The people willing to list are more desperate, but people will only sell if they absolutely have to.

 

[Brianstl]

What concrete examples of price drops are ppl seeing? Some examples of listings might be helpful to gauge our perception versus the reality of the resale market. Just a quick glance at AKV listings shows maybe $2-3 less per point on average then when we were looking 2 months ago. I also feel like there are fewer listings overall. DVC owners arent dumb. The people willing to list are more desperate, but people will only sell if they absolutely have to.

There is a multiple listing DVC that tries to aggregate all of the DVC listings. For most of last year that site had about 900-940 listings on it. A couple of days ago it top 1,000 listings for the first time. It is 1,008 listings this morning.

 

[RoseGold]

From my unscientific method, I feel that resale prices are already starting to fall. I spent the better part of February stalking different contracts on different resale sites.

Prices are def going down already. I just bought a couple months ago. If I were buying now, I would be making a very different choice - and waiting a few months for prices to fall even more.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

In 2011 I bought 150 pts at BWV for $46 per pt. Now that was a really good deal for me. I have no idea what the circumstances of the seller where but I'm sure they were glad to find a buyer for the contract they were selling. Should I have passed on this deal because someone else may or may not have been having hard financial times? No, if I didn't buy the contract someone else would have and maybe for even less. Just saying we don't know why people sell their contracts and we shouldn't judge those who happen to get a good deal on a resale contract.

 

[Bobb_o]

The thing I wonder about is Disney buying back, I wonder with all this money they're losing are they going to let a lot of contracts go on really good deals.

 

[FreeTime]

The thing I wonder about is Disney buying back, I wonder with all this money they're losing are they going to let a lot of contracts go on really good deals.

But you could argue that since DVC/DVD is not Disney, they are not losing money. They are still getting our dues that they can use to cover payroll and operating reserves. The money they would be out would be for sales that aren’t occurs now. But they will likely get those back.

 

[Bobb_o]

But you could argue that since DVC/DVD is not Disney, they are not losing money. They are still getting our dues that they can use to cover payroll and operating reserves. The money they would be out would be for sales that aren’t occurs now. But they will likely get those back.

DVC/DVD is still owned by Disney. It all flows back to the mothership somehow or another.

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

My prediction

Direct sales DVC prices will hold firm and they will INCREASE incentives for new sales
If you are in a rescission period, I would cancel and wait a month or two

Resale DVC prices will soon begin to drop, slow at first, then accelerate when the recession hits and around November or so, when annual dues statements go out, I would expect priced to drop again. Once tons of people decide to sell, then prices will go down again. I suspect they will stabilize by March 2021

If you are buying - I would HOLD out for better deals
If you are considering selling - I would list for sale ASAP

Not only do annual dues statements go out, but there is still supposed to be a US election in November, assuming it doesn't get postponed, which may also have an impact on the markets (not making a political post, just observing that markets do respond to political events). Decreased consumer spending in Q4 for the holidays could also make things worse. (Conversely, there may be pent up demand and consumer spending might boom then once people are let out of their houses).

I have held off buying DVC because I felt the prices and dues were too high given our frequency of WDW visits (every 2 years). But come November, IF our own financial situation is stable enough to merit a luxury purchase, I'll consider it.

 

[Deano45m]

It would be irrational for a seller to do anything differently on account of this. But perhaps some will

Some people might sell now due to economic situations.

 

[Deano45m]

Not only do annual dues statements go out, but there is still supposed to be a US election in November, assuming it doesn't get postponed, which may also have an impact on the markets (not making a political post, just observing that markets do respond to political events). Decreased consumer spending in Q4 for the holidays could also make things worse. (Conversely, there may be pent up demand and consumer spending might boom then once people are let out of their houses).

I have held off buying DVC because I felt the prices and dues were too high given our frequency of WDW visits (every 2 years). But come November, IF our own financial situation is stable enough to merit a luxury purchase, I'll consider it.

Sounds like a good idea. We just purchased last year and have been so excited to use our points. Instead I have spent the last 3 days rescheduling due to our trip was end of March.

 

[RanDIZ]

What concrete examples of price drops are ppl seeing? Some examples of listings might be helpful to gauge our perception versus the reality of the resale market. Just a quick glance at AKV listings shows maybe $2-3 less per point on average then when we were looking 2 months ago. I also feel like there are fewer listings overall. DVC owners arent dumb. The people willing to list are more desperate, but people will only sell if they absolutely have to.

I’ve been watching since Dec and purchased in Jan. Haven’t seen any real reduction in prices at this point. Just more contracts available.

 

[MICKIMINI]

I got an email yesterday GFV $155...seems cheap to me!

 

[Deploraboo]

Folks seem to be confusing offer price with sale price. I’m sure there are people out there looking to deploy cash here on DVC points rather than, say, Treasuries or gold, or Boeing below $100, but then there’s also folks blowing their cash on tattoos and beer.

 

[DVC Doctor]

FYI - DVC resale prices in the great recession generally FOLLOWED the stock market and lagged it by 6-12 months.

In other words, we may not see immediate DVC resale price drops, but in 6 months it could be substantial.

 

[Cyberc1978]

FYI - DVC resale prices in the great recession generally FOLLOWED the stock market and lagged it by 6-12 months.

In other words, we may not see immediate DVC resale price drops, but in 6 months it could be substantial.

I WAS in the market for a smaller add on at VGF and BCV but unless I find something real cheap I’m holding off at least for the next few months.

 

[SL6827]

FYI - DVC resale prices in the great recession generally FOLLOWED the stock market and lagged it by 6-12 months.

In other words, we may not see immediate DVC resale price drops, but in 6 months it could be substantial.

Yes.

 

[crisi]

If the last recession is any indication, people will generally try and hold onto their DVC for as long as they can, and then sell. Since at this point, most people in the "I own DVC" class are still getting paid, there isn't a rush to sell contracts, so contract prices haven't gone down. That will change as people lose jobs and have to choose between owning DVC and having enough cash to get caught up on their mortgage - that's going to take a few months - at that point, prices will drop because people NEED to sell their contracts - plus there will be far fewer people able to buy the contracts listed. For all of you looking at buying when prices go down, I hope your jobs are secure. I'm planning on losing 80% of the income from my small business over the next 12 months - possibly taking a loss. We are thinking my husband's job is pretty safe - but the loss of my small but luxury targeted income means that there won't be big vacations in the next two years.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

This virus business will be a thing of the past before too long. DVC is here to stay. It is a 50-year contract, or close to when first purchased into.