How good/bad a job has your state done at flattening the curve?

[choirfarm]

View attachment 485607

New York State new positive cases per day - I'm going with not to good.

It hasn't been 2 weeks since shelter in place, has it? It takes a minimum of 2 weeks of compliance to see flattening.

 

[msjprincess]

It hasn't been 2 weeks since shelter in place, has it? It takes a minimum of 2 weeks of compliance to see flattening.

Exactly. Of course the numbers are still going up. There are people who have had it before the stay at home order who are just being diagnosed. It hasn't been 2 weeks, plus in some cases it's taking a week to get results because the labs are overwhelmed. It has nothing to do with the state doing a bad job.

I live in NY, streets are empty, most non-essential people are staying home except to go grocery shopping.

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

It's been about 2 weeks officially. Schools and many business (NYC Especially) have been closed for three.

 

[mi*vida*loca]

It’s been two weeks in NJ. We went into stay at home orders on March 21.

 

[Toolulu22]

I’ve always been about the data, and numbers crunching but I’ve never hated looking at statistics as much as now. How is NY doing? We’ll have to believe the data, but what does it mean for us in our daily lives? I showed up for a 2 pm zoom meeting yesterday and 2 of the other 3 people had cocktails. It’s been mentioned elsewhere, but the virus is one of many problems going on right now- general physical and mental health, financial health- we’re all impacted in a myriad of ways and will flattening the curve get us back to “normal” or pre-COVID-19 any sooner?

 

[Hikergirl]

It hasn't been 2 weeks since shelter in place, has it? It takes a minimum of 2 weeks of compliance to see flattening.

It's been almost 2 weeks. He announced it on March 20, it went in to effect the evening of March 22.
Regardless, if the powers at be didn't think NYC was going to be an issue with it's population then maybe they shouldn't have been in a position of power in the first place.
The first confirmed case there was March 1 or 2. Three weeks before the "pause NY" order. It doesn't take anything more than common sense to know that a virus like this is going to spread fast through people when they are crammed together like that.
Had something been done earlier in the City perhaps he wouldn't need the National Guard to commandeer equipment from upstate facilities that are most definitely going to need them.

 

[ZephyrHawk]

Well, its hard to say. I've been tracking the numbers within my own health system and I can say that, for the past few days, our inpatient covid-19 death count has been decreasing or holding steady. That's not a bad sign. I mean, people dying is never a good sign, but "people no longer dying at increasingly greater rates every day", is better than what it was last week. Meanwhile, our ability to handle inpatient capacity is, I would estimate, strained, but not completely desperate. Basically, we've had to implement a bunch of surge protocols (which, luckily, we had plans for because of long-term emergency preparedness), but those protocols appear to be working thus far.

 

[mjkacmom]

What? That is crazy.

Virtually every semester abroad program at my daughters school is $3500. Some are a few weeks, some are more then a month, all are right around $3500 including airfare, accommodations, and many meals. They range from 3-6 semester hours credit.

East coast college, OOS tuition is $35,00 a year without R and B, $14,000 for IS. OOS rates apply for study abroad (and this university is known for its study abroad programs).

 

[Cogswel_Cogs]

I work in field somewhat, it is not desperate yet but strained in our area would be understatement incoming has decreased some recent days.
Still our people are doing everything they can and saving many people.
They are restructuring departments and moving many docs/nurses beyond their normal operation to take care of Covid patients.
I think the real area is lack of cleaning. I think we should have limited subways only allowing essential people. And then cleaning car each ride. From what I heard nothing like this was done. They just went to weekend schedule.

 

[mummabear]

OT, but I just received an email from my daughter’s university about the study abroad program she applied to next winter in NZ, I didn’t open it because I don’t want to see the cost!

What university is she heading to?

What? That is crazy.

Virtually every semester abroad program at my daughters school is $3500. Some are a few weeks, some are more then a month, all are right around $3500 including airfare, accommodations, and many meals. They range from 3-6 semester hours credit.

Not here. I work in international education. You are looking at $3600 per term ($7200 for a semester) for just tuition, and that is at high school level.
Airfares, insurance, homestay, admin, uniforms, general expenses, exam fees etc are all on top of that.

 

[mjkacmom]

What university is she heading to?



Not here. I work in international education. You are looking at $3600 per term ($7200 for a semester) for just tuition, and that is at high school level.
Airfares, insurance, homestay, admin, uniforms, general expenses, exam fees etc are all on top of that.

UD ran the first study abroad program in the UD in 1920, this is the information. Dd is an exercise science major planning on getting her doctorate in physical therapy, 7 years. I’d love for your input.
https://international.udel.edu/DB/PUB_Program.aspx?Pgm=2778#Description

 

[mummabear]

UD ran the first study abroad program in the UD in 1920, this is the information. Dd is an exercise science major planning on getting her doctorate in physical therapy, 7 years. I’d love for your input.
https://international.udel.edu/DB/PUB_Program.aspx?Pgm=2778#Description

If her program is going to start in dunedin I would assume that it is being organised by Otago University, which has an excellent Excercose Science program (I studied Excercise science myself at NZIS)
Honestly fees wise it is very reasonable based on what I know about high school level international study.

 

[bcla]

I live in one of the first counties in California with the stay at home order effective March 17. The day before the Governor of California ordered all restaurants closed except for takeout or delivery.

 

[godisney14]

I’ve always been about the data, and numbers crunching but I’ve never hated looking at statistics as much as now. How is NY doing? We’ll have to believe the data, but what does it mean for us in our daily lives? I showed up for a 2 pm zoom meeting yesterday and 2 of the other 3 people had cocktails. It’s been mentioned elsewhere, but the virus is one of many problems going on right now- general physical and mental health, financial health- we’re all impacted in a myriad of ways and will flattening the curve get us back to “normal” or pre-COVID-19 any sooner?

Maybe it will help you to understand by reading up on what the purpose of flattening the curve is.

Its hard to say when everything will be back to pre-COVID-19 days. But, what’s for sure is we can’t just flip the switch and everyone return to their “normal” routine right away. Otherwise, without a treatment or vaccine, you’re just resetting the situation back to t=0 and this whole thing starts up again.

 

[bcla]

Maybe it will help you to understand by reading up on what the purpose of flattening the curve is.

Its hard to say when everything will be back to pre-COVID-19 days. But, what’s for sure is we can’t just flip the switch and everyone return to their “normal” routine right away. Otherwise, without a treatment or vaccine, you’re just resetting the situation back to t=0 and this whole thing starts up again.

It might be a little bit more complicated than that because there will be a segment of the population that will have attained immunity or at least resistance. But certainly it's not going to be a great idea until there's a vaccine. There likely be a second wave like in previous outbreaks, but probably not as bad since there will already be people who got it before.

 

[godisney14]

It might be a little bit more complicated than that because there will be a segment of the population that will have attained immunity or at least resistance. But certainly it's not going to be a great idea until there's a vaccine. There likely be a second wave like in previous outbreaks, but probably not as bad since there will already be people who got it before.

Right, there will be some percent of the population who has had antibodies built up this season. But, what about during next Fall/Winter? What is the level of titer that prevents someone from getting it again next season? We don’t know for sure yet.

What is the difference between immunity and resistance? Haven’t heard of that distinction.

 

[bcla]

Right, there will be some percent of the population who has had antibodies built up this season. But, what about during next Fall/Winter? What is the level of titer that prevents someone from getting it again next season? We don’t know for sure yet.

What is the difference between immunity and resistance? Haven’t heard of that distinction.

My layman's understanding is that it's a matter of antibody levels. There are tests for people who have been vaccinated or who have been exposed to certain viral illnesses to check their antibody levels. There might even be resistance that's a matter of something other than antibodies.

The other thing is that one of the more promising treatments is an old fashioned plasma treatment using the blood of people who have recovered and developed antibodies. I believe they call it "convalescent plasma". It's being done on a trial basis now, but eventually there will be thousands to millions of people who have been identified and this plasma stored. It could certainly help once there's a reliable antibody test.

 

[RamblingMad]

Maybe it will help you to understand by reading up on what the purpose of flattening the curve is.

Its hard to say when everything will be back to pre-COVID-19 days. But, what’s for sure is we can’t just flip the switch and everyone return to their “normal” routine right away. Otherwise, without a treatment or vaccine, you’re just resetting the situation back to t=0 and this whole thing starts up again.

And that's okay as long as you have flatten the curve enough to keep hospitals form getting overwhelmed.

 

[Toolulu22]

Maybe it will help you to understand by reading up on what the purpose of flattening the curve is.

Its hard to say when everything will be back to pre-COVID-19 days. But, what’s for sure is we can’t just flip the switch and everyone return to their “normal” routine right away. Otherwise, without a treatment or vaccine, you’re just resetting the situation back to t=0 and this whole thing starts up again.

My earlier post was worded poorly. I understand the point of flattening the curve and have been abiding by the regulations in place in my region. My question was more of a vent because living through the experience is difficult for many people - more so for some and it became evident to me yesterday. There are those who will end up coming out of this (necessary) isolation in poor mental, physical, or financial health. As much as the things we are doing now to keep the virus from spreading, I am sad for those who are struggling through this.

 

[godisney14]

And that's okay as long as you have flatten the curve enough to keep hospitals form getting overwhelmed.

And that is my point regarding flattening the curve, and going back to "semi-normal" where there's a rolling return, not an all at once type of return. It is all about not overwhelming the hospitals.
What would be interesting to know is the % of people who have died as a result of COVID-19 directly or indirectly.

My earlier post was worded poorly. I understand the point of flattening the curve and have been abiding by the regulations in place in my region. My question was more of a vent because living through the experience is difficult for many people - more so for some and it became evident to me yesterday. There are those who will end up coming out of this (necessary) isolation in poor mental, physical, or financial health. As much as the things we are doing now to keep the virus from spreading, I am sad for those who are struggling through this.

It's understandable. There is no doubt people going through mental and financial distress right now. But, you can bet that most families of individuals hospitalized from this virus is not even thinking about mental or financial health. As unfortunate mental and financial well being is, being in the ICU and possibly dying is far far worse. We're going to soon reach 2,000 deaths per day in the US. That is rate of almost 20 times as many deaths per day by car accidents in the US. And, for now, I think it's safe to say that most of those 2,000 deaths is not yet even directly attributed to lack of breathing devices, fortunately and unfortunately.