Buy Riv direct now, or wait for VGF2? Help please !

[RoseGold]

WAIT, gfv will be cheaper to buy direct in the coming months vs resale today

This is a bold prediction. Remember, there's also BLT/Poly resale which are also all time highs.

It's a pretty aggressive statement to say that a price for anything at Disney is going that far down.

 

[Wakey]

With the restrictions and depressed resale values? 100% VGF. I walked the new path a few weeks ago and really liked it, so VGF has gone up in my estimation.

 

[nuhusky123]

This is a bold prediction. Remember, there's also BLT/Poly resale which are also all time highs.

It's a pretty aggressive statement to say that a price for anything at Disney is going that far down.

You keep using resorts that are sold out as reasons to support Your argument of higher prices. We keep having this debate

blt and poly are all SOLD OUT resorts. 2,000,000 new points will be unleashed for gfv creating a massive supply

this is basic economics and the law of supply and demand.

 

[RoseGold]

blt and poly are all SOLD OUT resorts. 2,000,000 new points will be unleashed for gfv creating a massive supply

this is basic economics and the law of supply and demand.

Prices go one way at WDW. We will see if this is the rare exception.

 

[nuhusky123]

great graph. Price gfv too high you limit the amount of buyers for the product.
price gfv too low and the demand will struggle to keep up.

disney isn’t setting the resale price, they set direct price points.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Prices go one way at WDW. We will see if this is the rare exception.

It is the 1st time the DVC is bringing a sold out resort back into current sales since they went the route of really jacking up direct sold out resort prices so there's no model for this to reference historically. The history is that it new sales come in at the same price as other current or often just a little below once discounts are considered.

One time VB direct pricing was reduced when other resorts were increased.

And then recently they were offering discounts off of several other sold out resorts - rarely heard of.

I think things point to them wanting to bump up volume a bit.

 

[DVCsloth]

So more than likely VGF2 won't have the same resale restrictions as Riviera does since it is in the same condo association?

 

[nuhusky123]

So more than likely VGF2 won't have the same resale restrictions as Riviera does since it is in the same condo association?

Vgf2 is part of the same vgf1 association. Better to just call it vgf, one single association with same rules

 

[DVCsloth]

Vgf2 is part of the same vgf1 association. Better to just call it vgf, one single association with same rules

True, but it will have different room categories, studios only and a separate building. Really wish they would have made it a separate association.

 

[Paul Stupin]

This is a bold prediction. Remember, there's also BLT/Poly resale which are also all time highs.

It's a pretty aggressive statement to say that a price for anything at Disney is going that far down.

Still thinking the price for VGF2 will be “sky high?” As you know, I’m on the other end of the spectrum, but at least our debate will be over in a few weeks. I’m thinking sales will start sometime in Feb. If it is lower than you anticipated, will you buy more points?

 

[DVCsloth]

Still thinking the price for VGF2 will be “sky high?” As you know, I’m on the other end of the spectrum, but at least our debate will be over in a few weeks. I’m thinking sales will start sometime in Feb. If it is lower than you anticipated, will you buy more points?

I tend to think it will be in line with Riviera with some sort of incentive. I'm not thrilled about the studio only aspect of it, but I can see why DVC chose it. It will have 8 years less than Riviera and not be as good of a choice for families wanting 1BR or larger IMO.

 

[DVCPAT]

It's a pretty aggressive statement to say that a price for anything at Disney is going that far down.

In good times it’s an aggressive statement…add worst inflation head winds in 40 years and your crossing the bridge into fantasy land. Disney wages, energy, food, maintenance, insurance, etc costs are rising and they have never been shy about passing costs along to the customer.
After Disney built the beautiful walk path to MK, I hope they undercut the resale market and reduce prices..we’ll see.

 

[Sandisw]

I tend to think it will be in line with Riviera with some sort of incentive. I'm not thrilled about the studio only aspect of it, but I can see why DVC chose it. It will have 8 years less than Riviera and not be as good of a choice for families wanting 1BR or larger IMO.

That is why I think it has to price closer to RIV to sell at what would be considered a success.

Of course, if it sells really well, they can always raise the price.

 

[davidl81]

That is why I think it has to price closer to RIV to sell at what would be considered a success.

Of course, if it sells really well, they can always raise the price.

This 100%. DVC has always opened a new resort at the same price as the current selling resort then adjusted as needed. There is no reason why VGF would be any different. It’s not like direct DVC sales are on fire right now and they can overprice things.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I bought some VGF resale points last month at $164 pp and I regret doing so. In the meantime I’ll pretend it was my “hedge” strategy.

However those feelings of regret will change if VGF2 is priced above $210 after discounts… but like many have said, simple economics say otherwise. There just isn’t the demand to match 2M of supply at $250pp. In fact I’m seeing more and more VGF contracts get “re-listed” after they’ve marked sold. I think some buyers are pulling out knowing that direct points will be cheaper or around the same price shortly.

 

[havoc315]

Hi there,
My husband and I have recently decided to buy DVC after some health scares have made us want to create lasting memories with our kids with something to look forward to every year .
Anyways- family of 6, one is a new baby. We were going to buy resale poly for a great price. (163 pp for 150 points) but that's not enough points for us. THEN we were going to buy direct riviera at 250 points, but are scared about the resale restrictions ( no one anticipates need to sell, but it's smart to know the risk of a purchase ) . Then we just saw that VGF will be expanding and selling more points direct.
Should we wait it out and buy VGF2? Will those points be good at the original VGF, will the VGF2 points be way more expensive than riviera?
I feel like poly is easy enough to get at 7 months and having a home resort that we can get a bigger villa in is important. Our top three faves are poly, VGF and Riv.
Thanks so much. Any help you guys can offer will be so appreciated!

Didn't read all the replies......But my basic thought is simply "buy where you want to stay."
Will VGF2 points be good at the original VGF? YES
Will VGF2 points be more expensive than Riviera? We don't know! Maybe! Probably!

I would not worry about re-sale. It's not like Riviera points can't be resold. Right now, Riviera re-sells at about 65-75% of direct price --- About the same as every resort.
So let's say Riviera actually does have long-term re-sale worse than other resorts, it will never be THAT MUCH worse. So let's say Riviera and GFV are both $201 per point. Let's say GFV better retains better resale value -- So in 5 years, you can re-sell GFV at 75% of the direct price -- $151 per point. Losing only $50 per point. On 250 points, you lost $12,500 in value. Let's say RIV re-sale value stinks, you only get back 70% of the direct price -- So you only get back $141 per point -- So when you re-sell, you lost $15,000! Is that difference of $2,500 enough to really base your entire decision around?

So go with the resort you like the most. If it's Riviera, go with Riviera. If it's GFV, wait for GFVII, which should go on sale within the next few months. If you want to wait to see the GFVII pricing.... just take your time.

 

[havoc315]

That is why I think it has to price closer to RIV to sell at what would be considered a success.

Of course, if it sells really well, they can always raise the price.

Yes. I suspect pricing will be higher than the RIviera, given the history of recent GFV direct pricing. BUT, we very well may see the same base price, which will be adjusted quickly with incentives as necessary. They will certainly adjust for demand.

I suspect there will be an initial huge surge of demand for GFV, especially if pricing is indeed initially similar to recent re-sale pricing. It will be perceived as a great value, there will be current owners rushing to add points.
But after an initial surge, it's hard to predict the demand for GFV and it may turn significantly on pricing. If it's priced the same as RIV, I can see a lot of buyers thinking, "for the same price, I'd rather be at the flagship resort next to Magic Kingdom." If it's priced higher than RIV, I can see a lot of buyers thinking, "nice to save a little money... and the Riviera is kinda nicer in a lot of ways." And a lot will turn on the unknown demand for these new "resort studios." There may be a segment of people who truly love them, "wow, more spacious than the other DVC studios and 2 real beds!"

 

[Paul Stupin]

Didn't read all the replies......But my basic thought is simply "buy where you want to stay."
Will VGF2 points be good at the original VGF? YES
Will VGF2 points be more expensive than Riviera? We don't know! Maybe! Probably!

I would not worry about re-sale. It's not like Riviera points can't be resold. Right now, Riviera re-sells at about 65-75% of direct price --- About the same as every resort.
So let's say Riviera actually does have long-term re-sale worse than other resorts, it will never be THAT MUCH worse. So let's say Riviera and GFV are both $201 per point. Let's say GFV better retails resale value -- So in 5 years, you can re-sell GFV at 75% of the direct price -- $151 per point. Losing only $50 per point. On 250 points, you lost $12,500 in value. Let's say RIV re-sale value stinks, you only get back 70% of the direct price -- So you only get back $141 per point -- So when you re-sell, you lost $15,000! Is that difference enough to really base your entire decision around?

So go with the resort you like the most. If it's Riviera, go with Riviera. If it's GFV, wait for GFVII, which should go on sale within the next few months. If you want to wait to see the GFVII pricing.... just take your time.

I don‘t think VGF2 will be more expensive than Riviera.

 

[laserpastry]

Our top three faves are poly, VGF and Riv.

I think you need to ask yourself some questions:
Is it important that your family have access to a kitchen and in-room laundry? If yes, then that rules out Poly. If no, then do you want to deal with the possibility that your family may not get connecting rooms and be split up at Poly? If you are okay with that, then buy at Poly, since you seem to favor it.

If Poly has been ruled out at this point, then I think you need to ask yourself how important it is that you purchase now. Are you willing to wait and see what happens with the Grand Floridian: what the direct price will be, how having so many more studios will affect booking for other room sizes, etc.?

If you are not willing to wait and find out these things, I think that Riviera becomes the preferred resort.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[ITGirl50]

Owning GFV was always a dream of mine. I was excited they were going to expand so we could add-on, but when I found out all the new rooms will be hotel rooms (not even studios), I lost interest. We only stay in 1 bedrooms and though the new points can be used at the existing resort there will be too many owners competing for the larger room categories.

Check out other direct resorts. AKV and SSR are priced well for direct.