Covid And The Rest of Us

[ronandannette]

I hope that's not what happens. The majority of the spread is happening mostly in schools and family gatherings now. They need to figure out a way to change that. I don't know what the answer is

Here that's not exactly the case. We've got outbreaks again in our hospitals, seniors' care facilities and all of the 3 prisons in Alberta. They are testing like crazy and tons of cases are being found. And although the hospitals and seniors' homes are not being locked-down again like they were in March, the prisons are and the spread from there is actually through the guards and staff back out into their homes and communities rather than the other way around. I know there must be gatherings that are not within compliance but our news is not reporting it in any significant way although according to yesterday's paper the "snitch line" calls have increased exponentially.

 

[godisney14]

And ours is mostly just community spread-family gatherings and the like. Schools aren't a major contributor. Universities, when they were going back, when they had mandatory testing for at least some of them in the state yes they caught some bigger numbers there but otherwise it's a few cases here and there as well as in the K-12. Sometimes it's a football team (which is winding down anyways) or a school that out of caution quarantined a good amount but that does not translate into spread occurring in a meaningful to our numbers way. In my direct metro it's discussed that most of the cases in schools are from the community not spread from kid to kid within the school.

Not all colleges and universities have issues. But, the bigger 4-year universities are contributing to local no doubt. And you can bet those campus cases aren’t isolated to the campus. These kids and staff do go out into the public time to time.

Here’s a good link to track what’s going on in every college that has reported data.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-college-cases-tracker.html

This data shows where the virus has been identified over the course of the pandemic, not necessarily where it is prevalent now. The Times has counted more than 207,000 cases at colleges since late July; of those, more than 35,000 cases have been added since early October. Tens of thousands of those infections have been reported in recent days, but some universities just started reporting data, and The Times recently contacted others for the first time.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Not all colleges and universities have issues. But, the bigger 4-year universities are contributing to local no doubt. And you can bet those campus cases aren’t isolated to the campus. These kids and staff do go out into the public time to time.

Here’s a good link to track what’s going on in every college that has reported data.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-college-cases-tracker.html

This data shows where the virus has been identified over the course of the pandemic, not necessarily where it is prevalent now. The Times has counted more than 207,000 cases at colleges since late July; of those, more than 35,000 cases have been added since early October. Tens of thousands of those infections have been reported in recent days, but some universities just started reporting data, and The Times recently contacted others for the first time.

I was only talking about my area and state wasn't talking about the whole U.S. I assumed the other poster was discussing their immediate area. That link is good for others interested in the larger scale though

As far as going out geographically it really depends some college campuses are located in areas where it's the immediate town and only that, others are closer to bigger areas. Our community (2 yr) college is located in the metro, one of the big 4 year universities in the state is isolated and really only has its town with the nearest big area 60miles away.

But multiple areas in my state the numbers for the respective counties were driven by student and staff required testing which occurred in late summer/early fall.

A lot of people assumed k-12 was going to be a HUGE issue, it's not in our area. There are cases sure but it's not spreading like many thought within the schools which was my point. It's occurring in the community with isolated cases identified within schools.

 

[elphaba91]

I watch Australia with great interest and trepidation. If the pattern follows suit and their easing of restrictions results in an immediate increase in cases, perhaps the rest of the world will get the idea that only draconian lock-down is sufficient?

Admittedly it hasn’t even been a week since retail, hospitality and home visits started, but today it is 2 weeks since we’ve been able to travel up to 25km, do some socialising outdoors and get a haircut and 3 weeks since the vast majority of students (apart from 3 year levels) have gone back to school. We have had our third day in a row of zero cases, our average daily case number for the last 14 days is 1.9 and we have 1 mystery case in 14 days. I am sure that there still are some cases out there that we don’t know about, but it is looking promising that we will be able to keep cases at a level where we can identify any outbreaks and get them under control before they spread too far, like NSW is managing.

However, I just don’t know if that strategy can work in other parts of the world. We had 3.5 weeks of stage 3 (without curfew or 5km limits and retail open) then 10 weeks of strict stage 4 then 2.5 with slightly relaxed stage 4. And that was to get numbers down from a top of 723 for 6.4 million people. We also didn’t have much threat of importing cases from overseas or interstate. Plus, from a financial perspective, we have been fortunate that the rest of the country can help support us financially with measures introduced by the federal government for the first wave being extended.

The modelling showed that if we re-opened with a daily average of 25 cases there would be a 62% chance that infections would increase a require another lockdown before Christmas, whereas with an average of 5 there would only be a 3% chance. Unfortunately I just don’t think that many other places will be able to get down to the incredibly low numbers that are apparently required to prevent a yo-yo effect. While I do think that Victoria did the right thing for Victoria (and Australia), I doubt that will be the right thing now for the UK or France. What the right thing is though, I just don’t know. Maybe as a PP said, introducing the vaccine already, particularly amongst vulnerable populations?

 

[ronandannette]

Admittedly it hasn’t even been a week since retail, hospitality and home visits started, but today it is 2 weeks since we’ve been able to travel up to 25km, do some socialising outdoors and get a haircut and 3 weeks since the vast majority of students (apart from 3 year levels) have gone back to school. We have had our third day in a row of zero cases, our average daily case number for the last 14 days is 1.9 and we have 1 mystery case in 14 days. I am sure that there still are some cases out there that we don’t know about, but it is looking promising that we will be able to keep cases at a level where we can identify any outbreaks and get them under control before they spread too far, like NSW is managing.

However, I just don’t know if that strategy can work in other parts of the world. We had 3.5 weeks of stage 3 (without curfew or 5km limits and retail open) then 10 weeks of strict stage 4 then 2.5 with slightly relaxed stage 4. And that was to get numbers down from a top of 723 for 6.4 million people. We also didn’t have much threat of importing cases from overseas or interstate. Plus, from a financial perspective, we have been fortunate that the rest of the country can help support us financially with measures introduced by the federal government for the first wave being extended.

The modelling showed that if we re-opened with a daily average of 25 cases there would be a 62% chance that infections would increase a require another lockdown before Christmas, whereas with an average of 5 there would only be a 3% chance. Unfortunately I just don’t think that many other places will be able to get down to the incredibly low numbers that are apparently required to prevent a yo-yo effect. While I do think that Victoria did the right thing for Victoria (and Australia), I doubt that will be the right thing now for the UK or France. What the right thing is though, I just don’t know. Maybe as a PP said, introducing the vaccine already, particularly amongst vulnerable populations?

Your post begs an important question: What number of cases, if any, are acceptable in Australia? Is the only acceptable goal zero cases? It is quite incredible that you have ostensibly achieved that although as you say, there may be cases undiagnosed. Those results have come at the cost of very severe restrictions and compliance must have been very high.

I just finished reading through the California Thanksgiving thread. Wowza!! The posts there reminded me why "the rest of us" are here discussing things amongst ourselves. Given all of our circumstances in the nations represented here and the attitudes (generally - not all), not only are we speaking an entirely different language than the Americans, we're practically living on another planet.

 

[MommyinHonduras]

So as mentioned last week starting Wed through Sun we are to have 5 days where the number restrictions are lifted to be able to move about with a bit more freedom for the holidays. But Tropical Storm Eta is going to slam into Honduras early Tuesday morning and stick around several days and most of the country is predicted to be in the 24+ inches of rain dumping down. So finally a bit if freedom and it needs to used to weather the storm. I wonder if sarscov2 virus can be drown out of existence? Please pray those of you who do, mud slides, lost crops and trees and houses, the country is in a horrible state, this is looking to be devastation on top of the devastation that this year already is.

 

[elphaba91]

Your post begs an important question: What number of cases, if any, are acceptable in Australia? Is the only acceptable goal zero cases? It is quite incredible that you have ostensibly achieved that although as you say, there may be cases undiagnosed. Those results have come at the cost of very severe restrictions and compliance must have been very high.

I just finished reading through the California Thanksgiving thread. Wowza!! The posts there reminded me why "the rest of us" are here discussing things amongst ourselves. Given all of our circumstances in the nations represented here and the attitudes (generally - not all), not only are we speaking an entirely different language than the Americans, we're practically living on another planet.

That's a really, really tough question. The tricky thing is, the national approach was flattening the curve, but most states have definitely gone the elimination route (possibly by chance, but having got there they don’t want to risk going back). At one point I know the offical goal was under 20 cases across the country, but those sorts of numbers would be very alarming to people now.

With state border closures being enforced, that then puts pressure on NSW and Victoria in particular to also strive for zero. For Tasmania, Western Australia, South Australia, the Northern Territory and the ACT, the answer is definitely zero, and they have achieved that (with the exception of some in hotel quarantine or on cargo ships). The Queensland Premier has also been touting that she wants NSW (and presumably Victoria) to have 28 days of no community transmissions before opening the border, although there are hopes/expectations that it was a tactic for a positive election result over the weekend and that now that it is over she will change her stance; the border is now open to regional NSW. NSW seems to be the only state that is sticking to the suppression approach. I think they are happy as long as their contact tracers can keep on top of things and stamp out any outbreaks before they spread too far.

As for Victoria, I honestly don't know. The official line has always been suppression, but there have been slips from a couple of people (including the Chief Health Officer and former Health Minister) suggesting that the goal is zero or that they at least think it is a possibility. I think officially it is to keep numbers as low as possible to enable effective contact tracing, although if we manage to eliminate community transmission then that is fantastic.

 

[ronandannette]

That's a really, really tough question. The tricky thing is, the national approach was flattening the curve, but most states have definitely gone the elimination route (possibly by chance, but having got there they don’t want to risk going back). At one point I know the offical goal was under 20 cases across the country, but those sorts of numbers would be very alarming to people now.

With state border closures being enforced, that then puts pressure on NSW and Victoria in particular to also strive for zero. For Tasmania, Western Australia, South Australia, the Northern Territory and the ACT, the answer is definitely zero, and they have achieved that (with the exception of some in hotel quarantine or on cargo ships). The Queensland Premier has also been touting that she wants NSW (and presumably Victoria) to have 28 days of no community transmissions before opening the border, although there are hopes/expectations that it was a tactic for a positive election result over the weekend and that now that it is over she will change her stance; the border is now open to regional NSW. NSW seems to be the only state that is sticking to the suppression approach. I think they are happy as long as their contact tracers can keep on top of things and stamp out any outbreaks before they spread too far.

As for Victoria, I honestly don't know. The official line has always been suppression, but there have been slips from a couple of people (including the Chief Health Officer and former Health Minister) suggesting that the goal is zero or that they at least think it is a possibility. I think officially it is to keep numbers as low as possible to enable effective contact tracing, although if we manage to eliminate community transmission then that is fantastic.

Thank you. What is the national mood? If cases start emerging will people easily go back into the previous restrictions?

You mentioned the economy and a feeling that lock down was being ridden out successfully due to government intervention. I don’t know near enough about the Australian economy to understand but I do know we also have countless Covid relief programs currently in effect; mostly out of federal coffers. Although it is a lifeline for some, for others it is a mere fraction of their previous incomes and their personal finances are destroyed. While some of us never left or have now returned to work, millions remain unemployed even with the resumption of business. Our government is deficit-spending at an unimaginable rate; they say it will take 20 years to rebalance our federal budget and national debt is approaching a trillion dollars.

So as mentioned last week starting Wed through Sun we are to have 5 days where the number restrictions are lifted to be able to move about with a bit more freedom for the holidays. But Tropical Storm Eta is going to slam into Honduras early Tuesday morning and stick around several days and most of the country is predicted to be in the 24+ inches of rain dumping down. So finally a bit if freedom and it needs to used to weather the storm. I wonder if sarscov2 virus can be drown out of existence? Please pray those of you who do, mud slides, lost crops and trees and houses, the country is in a horrible state, this is looking to be devastation on top of the devastation that this year already is.

Absolutely - praying especially for you, your family and the church, and for all the people of Honduras. May you rest in the shelter of the Most High as you dwell in His almighty shadow.

Unlike Covid, a hurricane is likely something you have previously experienced. What measures are in place and are you personally safe? What can we do from this end? Which relief agency is most likely to have the greatest impact with dollars?

 

[MommyinHonduras]

Unlike Covid, a hurricane is likely something you have previously experienced. What measures are in place and are you personally safe? What can we do from this end? Which relief agency is most likely to have the greatest impact with dollars?

Thank you! Last hurricane was 1998 Mitch and it changed the country so much recovery was just starting to happen 20 years later. Tropical storms are a regular things with lots of rain, it is the tropics Local communities try helping other recover from the damages after. We are about 100 feet from shore and are up, so while making a muddy mess of things, we are in a good place. Hoping power is not lost for long stretches as that become an issue for food storage but we can live on rice, beans and pasta for a time.

 

[mommasita]

So as mentioned last week starting Wed through Sun we are to have 5 days where the number restrictions are lifted to be able to move about with a bit more freedom for the holidays. But Tropical Storm Eta is going to slam into Honduras early Tuesday morning and stick around several days and most of the country is predicted to be in the 24+ inches of rain dumping down. So finally a bit if freedom and it needs to used to weather the storm. I wonder if sarscov2 virus can be drown out of existence? Please pray those of you who do, mud slides, lost crops and trees and houses, the country is in a horrible state, this is looking to be devastation on top of the devastation that this year already is.

OH NO, I will keep you all in my thoughts and prayers. That is all you bloody need. Be safe, and please check in with us when you can.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

So as mentioned last week starting Wed through Sun we are to have 5 days where the number restrictions are lifted to be able to move about with a bit more freedom for the holidays. But Tropical Storm Eta is going to slam into Honduras early Tuesday morning and stick around several days and most of the country is predicted to be in the 24+ inches of rain dumping down. So finally a bit if freedom and it needs to used to weather the storm. I wonder if sarscov2 virus can be drown out of existence? Please pray those of you who do, mud slides, lost crops and trees and houses, the country is in a horrible state, this is looking to be devastation on top of the devastation that this year already is.

 

[SirDuff]

Maybe you can answer my question from earlier. My state added Andorra (the only country presently on the list) to our quarantine list. I guess I could look up the stats but I figure you may be able to give more personal information. Is Andorra's numbers just really bad for their population? Do they have any restrictions or is is more like how Sweden was with their approach?

I have to admit that I don't really know what is going on in Andorra. Part of it is their tiny population (about 75,000) which means that a relatively small number of cases can make pretty big changes in their case rate (if you look at their daily case rate per 100,000 population it makes bigger jumps than a lot of other countries). They are also between Spain and France (two other countries with increasing rates right now) and I don't knoow what their border rules are like. I seem to recall that they did do a shutdown, but not sure how strict it was or when it was lifted.

From worldmeters.info, they have one of the highest testing rates in Europe - could that be part of it (i.e. their numbers appear higher (comparatively) because of testing?). I don't see a positivity rate. On the other hand, their death rate (per 100,000 population) is pretty high, so the case numbers are probably not (just) a testing artifact.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I remember the question being asked here if well-known people in various areas had come out saying they had contracted COVID. I was just reading a news story where they discussed that Prince William in mid-April (asked about it and didn't confirm nor deny though there were clues like absence from contact with people and an 'observer' at a function had a conversation about it) tested positive.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I have to admit that I don't really know what is going on in Andorra. Part of it is their tiny population (about 75,000) which means that a relatively small number of cases can make pretty big changes in their case rate (if you look at their daily case rate per 100,000 population it makes bigger jumps than a lot of other countries). They are also between Spain and France (two other countries with increasing rates right now) and I don't knoow what their border rules are like. I seem to recall that they did do a shutdown, but not sure how strict it was or when it was lifted.

From worldmeters.info, they have one of the highest testing rates in Europe - could that be part of it (i.e. their numbers appear higher (comparatively) because of testing?). I don't see a positivity rate. On the other hand, their death rate (per 100,000 population) is pretty high, so the case numbers are probably not (just) a testing artifact.

Thank you very much for your response and information that helps me understand more and have a bit more context. I'm *guessing* that larger jumps than a lot of other countries may be a main driving factor for them being added to our quarantine list maybe reflecting a fast spread situation there, that's sad about their death rate

 

[MommyinHonduras]

This bugger took out our internet the past 5+ hours.
Been rainy all day. The sound of the waves is the loudest I have heard while living here.
US Embassy has put out a warning for our department and 3 others to evacuate, but like how and to where? Crazy talk with no way to accomplish it. Anyway, stocked up extra food and supplies today and it "wasn't my day" but no one even asked.
Official weather report is catagory 3 but some are already calling it a 4 before landfall late tonight/early tomorrow. It's moving very slowly and just getting stronger.
Then after traveling over land suppose to hit the water again and reenergize and hit again Friday night/Saturday morning as it heads north.
Thank you all for your thoughts and prayers.

 

[MamaLema]

View attachment 536295 This bugger took out our internet the past 5+ hours.
Been rainy all day. The sound of the waves is the loudest I have heard while living here.
US Embassy has put out a warning for our department and 3 others to evacuate, but like how and to where? Crazy talk with no way to accomplish it. Anyway, stocked up extra food and supplies today and it "wasn't my day" but no one even asked.
Official weather report is catagory 3 but some are already calling it a 4 before landfall late tonight/early tomorrow. It's moving very slowly and just getting stronger.
Then after traveling over land suppose to hit the water again and reenergize and hit again Friday night/Saturday morning as it heads north.
Thank you all for your thoughts and prayers.

Thinking of you. Stay safe and please update when you can

 

[Planogirl]

And NL was yesterday under 10K new cases again!
We had some reporting issues the last few days, so fingers crossed this one was actually ok.

Other news:
- We get more test capacity in the next few weeks to make it possible for everyone to get tested within 24 hours.
- Our government was going to give 3.4 billion euro loan to our national airline. One condition was everyone (mainly the pilots) has to make a sacrifice in salary for five years (the runtime of the loan). Mainly the pilots said: no, we don't want that. We'll give 1.5 years and we will be committed to make this a healthy company again.
That was not good enough for the government, so now the loan is actually on hold. And the pilots have one more shot to sign, otherwise the airline most likely will go bankrupt within a year.
- Lot of illegal parties, daily we get articles of the police ending parties and fining people / establishments.
- There is a Dutch doctor who is chief exectuive for 7 hospitals in London, and he suggests to release the Astra Zeneca vaccin now, as more people are getting sick/dying from covid than the side effects of the vaccin.

KLM?

 

[NFLDERS]

Here that's not exactly the case. We've got outbreaks again in our hospitals, seniors' care facilities and all of the 3 prisons in Alberta. They are testing like crazy and tons of cases are being found. And although the hospitals and seniors' homes are not being locked-down again like they were in March, the prisons are and the spread from there is actually through the guards and staff back out into their homes and communities rather than the other way around. I know there must be gatherings that are not within compliance but our news is not reporting it in any significant way although according to yesterday's paper the "snitch line" calls have increased exponentially.

Our Premier said today that data on our numbers reflect community and after school gatherings both small and large. That gyms, bars, and restaurants can in most regions remain open and/or reopen. Those business' are determined to strictly follow the guidelines as most say they are, and have been.

 

[NFLDERS]

So as mentioned last week starting Wed through Sun we are to have 5 days where the number restrictions are lifted to be able to move about with a bit more freedom for the holidays. But Tropical Storm Eta is going to slam into Honduras early Tuesday morning and stick around several days and most of the country is predicted to be in the 24+ inches of rain dumping down. So finally a bit if freedom and it needs to used to weather the storm. I wonder if sarscov2 virus can be drown out of existence? Please pray those of you who do, mud slides, lost crops and trees and houses, the country is in a horrible state, this is looking to be devastation on top of the devastation that this year already is.

Prayers sent. Stay safe.

 

[Karin1984]

KLM?

Yup, one union signed as well, and now we are waiting for the pilots. Apparently the atmosphere on board is not great, as in there are anonymous notes left in the cockpit addressed to the pilots 'thanks for ruining the company, see you at the unemployment office'. Also in newspapers and social media the pilots are not put in a very favourable light. KLM's pilots are among the best paid in Europe, better pay, less hours. It is probably a small group that is in denial about how bad the situation is, they seem to think we are still in the 90s when business was booming.