Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

DizMe said:
I'm trying to decide whether or not to rebook my recently cancelled end-of-Sept reservation. I had planned it for last April. My best friend unexpectedly lost her husband last January and I asked if she'd like a little getaway, which made her very happy. But then came covid and we rebooked for Sept but now, I don't know what to do. She only just got back in her house from a fire that missed her home but burned the family's cabin. Her 2 kids live nearby and are very sweet girls, but she has lost so much in the last year and I was hoping to bring her a little fun. I don't want her to think I'm pushing her to go still but I also don't want her to feel like I'm giving up and it's another loss.
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Talk to her and find out where her head is right now. Talking saves a lot of miscommunication and misunderstandings
 
DizMe said:
I'm trying to decide whether or not to rebook my recently cancelled end-of-Sept reservation. I had planned it for last April. My best friend unexpectedly lost her husband last January and I asked if she'd like a little getaway, which made her very happy. But then came covid and we rebooked for Sept but now, I don't know what to do. She only just got back in her house from a fire that missed her home but burned the family's cabin. Her 2 kids live nearby and are very sweet girls, but she has lost so much in the last year and I was hoping to bring her a little fun. I don't want her to think I'm pushing her to go still but I also don't want her to feel like I'm giving up and it's another loss.
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Isn’t it comforting how many of us turn to Disney to bring us some joy.....
I have 2 upcoming Trips planned that I don’t think will happen. Both with a dear friend that has dealt with job loss, major move, children weddings, babies......major life events. We use these get always to Disneyland as our sanity savers. I work in a very high stress, physically demanding job and have so many concerns about how I can keep up the required pace In this new version of life. I hate the fact the may not happen.
I am also trying to decide whether or not to even plan on rebooking.
 
bgswan said:
More sustained progress!
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I am astonished at the drop in positive cases both in OC and in my area. I honestly think we are having testing issues again. I hope I am wrong. I hope we have finally made some sustained progress and that means that more things, including Disneyland and other theme parks can reopen and stay open.
 
disneychrista said:
I am astonished at the drop in positive cases both in OC and in my area. I honestly think we are having testing issues again. I hope I am wrong. I hope we have finally made some sustained progress and that means that more things, including Disneyland and other theme parks can reopen and stay open.
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I think it’s a good sign for the whole state. California as a whole has one of the lowest r-naught rates compared to other states. And we have a 7 day average of 4%. When we had to do our big reversal shutdown we were about 8%.
So let’s keep our fingers crossed for a covid relief! And another step towards theme parks reopening 🤞🏾
 
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disneychrista said:
I am astonished at the drop in positive cases both in OC and in my area. I honestly think we are having testing issues again. I hope I am wrong. I hope we have finally made some sustained progress and that means that more things, including Disneyland and other theme parks can reopen and stay open.
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What testing issues? Over 8000 tests were reported today in OC.

What is happening is the same pattern that we saw in Italy. And New York. And Florida. The Rt of this virus in CA is less than 1.0. The virus will not continue to explode under these circumstances.
 
DizMe said:
I'm trying to decide whether or not to rebook my recently cancelled end-of-Sept reservation. I had planned it for last April. My best friend unexpectedly lost her husband last January and I asked if she'd like a little getaway, which made her very happy. But then came covid and we rebooked for Sept but now, I don't know what to do. She only just got back in her house from a fire that missed her home but burned the family's cabin. Her 2 kids live nearby and are very sweet girls, but she has lost so much in the last year and I was hoping to bring her a little fun. I don't want her to think I'm pushing her to go still but I also don't want her to feel like I'm giving up and it's another loss.
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What a great friend you are! I hope everything works out and you two can still have a fun getaway.
 
DLgal said:
It really doesn't matter what the population sizes are. Disney will be severely limiting attendance at their parks and Downtown Disney when they reopen. A set number of people will be allowed on-site on any given day. Same as at WDW. It literally doesn’t matter where the attendees live.
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It think it does matter. OC CA has three times the population living in the nearly the same size of OC FL. Viruses spread much more quickly in densely populated areas. DL opening even at 20% capacity is still a significant increase of people in that area, especially if you consider the number of cast members that will be returning, as well. The population in the area surrounding DL will be affected by an influx of people coming into town to go to DL. They will go to gas stations, stores, restaurants, and stay in offsite hotels in the surrounding areas. I think those are things that are being taken into consideration.
 
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kristensideaoffun said:
It think it does matter. OC CA has three times the population living in the nearly the same size of OC FL. Viruses spread much more quickly in densely populated areas. DL opening even at 20% capacity is still a significant increase of people in that area, especially if you consider the number of cast members that will be returning, as well. The population in the area surrounding DL will be affected by an influx of people coming into town to go to DL. They will go to gas stations, stores, restaurants, and stay in offsite hotels in the surrounding areas. I think those are things that are being taken into consideration.
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DL at 20% capacity is against max capacity of DL park, not compared to the local Orange County, CA population.

So let's say that the DL park max capacity is ~ 85,000 and the equivalent at Magic Kingdom in WDW is 90,000 (https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/... capacity,Disney's Hollywood Studios (60,000).). 25% of 85,000 is 21,250. 25% of 90,000 is 22,500.

You can go on Youtube and see all sorts of video available since early July that shows how pretty empty and manageable Magic Kingdom is at 25% capacity. It's not that bad.
 
kristensideaoffun said:
It think it does matter. OC CA has three times the population living in the nearly the same size of OC FL. Viruses spread much more quickly in densely populated areas. DL opening even at 20% capacity is still a significant increase of people in that area, especially if you consider the number of cast members that will be returning, as well. The population in the area surrounding DL will be affected by an influx of people coming into town to go to DL. They will go to gas stations, stores, restaurants, and stay in offsite hotels in the surrounding areas. I think those are things that are being taken into consideration.
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I still don't understand what you mean here. The vast majority of people who visit DLR on any given day (prepandemic) drive there. They go between their cars and the parks and then back home. Most employees don't live in Anaheim. They commute in from nearby cities. I don't get how opening the parks translates to a sudden surge in cases when most people are already coming from somewhere nearby.

You seem to be looking at DLR as a closed system when it is nothing like that.
 
VandVsmama said:
DL at 20% capacity is against max capacity of DL park, not compared to the local Orange County, CA population.

So let's say that the DL park max capacity is ~ 85,000 and the equivalent at Magic Kingdom in WDW is 90,000 (https://www.ocregister.com/2020/05/22/what-an-attendance-cap-could-mean-for-crowded-disney-parks-in-the-covid-19-era/#:~:text=Disney World's estimated attendance capacity,Disney's Hollywood Studios (60,000).). 25% of 85,000 is 21,250. 25% of 90,000 is 22,500.

You can go on Youtube and see all sorts of video available since early July that shows how pretty empty and manageable Magic Kingdom is at 25% capacity. It's not that bad.
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Yes, I understand how the capacity works. Again, I don’t think the concern is DL. I do not doubt that DL has the capabilities to enforce stringent health and sanitation measures throughout the resort. DL isn’t as insulated from the “outside” world as WDW is. Orange County CA has 2 million more people living in the same size area as Orange County FL. Viruses spread more quickly in densely populated areas. DL opening will bring in 20,000+ visitors plus however many cast members. That’s 20,000 more people, some traveling from hot spot areas, also going to local restaurants, hotels, stores, gas stations, using public transit, and other places outside of DL’s control. All I am saying is that there are things outside of DL’s control that are also being taken into consideration by state officials when it comes to opening these large scale theme parks. Community spread happens much more quickly and is more difficult to contain in Orange County CA than it is in Orange County FL.
 
DLgal said:
I still don't understand what you mean here. The vast majority of people who visit DLR on any given day (prepandemic) drive there. They go between their cars and the parks and then back home. Most employees don't live in Anaheim. They commute in from nearby cities. I don't get how opening the parks translates to a sudden surge in cases when most people are already coming from somewhere nearby.

You seem to be looking at DLR as a closed system when it is nothing like that.
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The point I am trying to make is that DLR is not a closed system. And I didn’t say sudden surge of cases, I said sudden surge of people. Yes, a lot of people that frequent DLR are locals. However, there are literally hundreds of hotels in the surrounding area that people stay in when the parks are open. We have had APs for almost 15 years and usually travel up from San Diego and stay in a hotel near the park if we aren’t staying onsite. We walk to the parks with thousands of other people coming from surrounding hotels. I pass cast members at bus stops waiting to board local transit to come home. I pop into CVS for bottled water and there are other families there loading up on snacks and other supplies for the parks.

People are asking why DLR can’t open when WDW is a clear example of how they are capable of reopening safely. I am not trying to argue for or against reopening and am not saying that DLR opening will cause a sudden surge in cases. I am just stating my opinion of one of the reasons why state officials may be holding off on having DLR reopen that doesn’t have anything to do with DLR’s COVID safety precautions.
 
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kristensideaoffun said:
The point I am trying to make is that DLR is not a closed system. And I didn’t say sudden surge of cases, I said sudden surge of people. Yes, a lot of people that frequent DLR are locals. However, there are literally hundreds of hotels in the surrounding area that people stay in when the parks are open. We have had APs for almost 15 years and usually travel up from San Diego and stay in a hotel near the park if we aren’t staying onsite. We walk to the parks with thousands of other people coming from surrounding hotels. I pass cast members at bus stops waiting to board local transit to come home. I pop into CVS for bottled water and there are other families there loading up on snacks and other supplies for the parks.

People are asking why DLR can’t open when WDW is a clear example of how they are capable of reopening safely. I am not trying to argue for or against reopening and am not saying that DLR opening will cause a sudden surge in cases. I am just stating my opinion of one of the reasons why state officials may be holding off on having DLR reopen that doesn’t have anything to do with DLR’s COVID safety precautions.
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But there are also guidelines that must be followed regarding retail and dining capacities both state and county wide, so again, if doesn't matter how many people flock to Anahiem. CVS can only let in 25% pf it's store capacity, along with every other store and restaurant in the area. The hotels in the area won't be operating at full capacity either. More like 25% there too, if even that.

Have you even been to Anaheim lately? I have. It's largely deserted. Once people start coming again, it still won't look anything like you remember it being on your last trips.

The "community spread" happens in close quarters, often among families and friends when they gather without masks and without social distacing. This isn't the case at a theme park with strict rules. If families use the theme parks as a gathering spot and behave irresponsibly, that is on them. They are already behaving this way at local parks, and it's sanctioned by the cities, as they have reopened things like playing fields and basketball courts.
 
DLgal said:
But there are also guidelines that must be followed regarding retail and dining capacities both state and county wide, so again, if doesn't matter how many people flock to Anahiem. CVS can only let in 25% pf it's store capacity, along with every other store and restaurant in the area. The hotels in the area won't be operating at full capacity either. More like 25% there too, if even that.

Have you even been to Anaheim lately? I have. It's largely deserted. Once people start coming again, it still won't look anything like you remember it being on your last trips.

The "community spread" happens in close quarters, often among families and friends when they gather without masks and without social distacing. This isn't the case at a theme park with strict rules. If families use the theme parks as a gathering spot and behave irresponsibly, that is on them. They are already behaving this way at local parks, and it's sanctioned by the cities, as they have reopened things like playing fields and basketball courts.
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Agree to disagree. :)
 
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