Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[AquaDame]

No way will they keep the attendance that low on purpose. They will immediately move up to at least 50% once they can in June. The only caveat to that is their ability to actually SELL that many daily admissions. My guess is that they will find it hard to reach 50% capacity without resuming some sort of AP program. I expect that we see the rollout of the new loyalty program by the end of July.

Meanwhile as an OOSer I'm over here wondering if I'll be able to get park reservations before the autumn or if it will be full...

 

[TikiTikiFan]

Not really from what I am seeing. ALL of the plans I have made can be changed.

Several Airlines are no longer charging change fees. (As long as you don't book the most basic fair. eg Delta and Alaska.)

Same here! I booked Southwest and our flights can be changed with no change fee. And that's for the most basic fare! Since we plan on going regardless whether it's summer or xmas it'll work out. Most hotels allow a cancellation period too.

But I do think people not knowing in advance is definitely gonna hurt the local hotels/DL for the summer. It's frustrating.

 

[edhmom]

LOL!

"Masks may be removed after every member of your party has taken a rapid test, an antibody screening, and scheduled a colonoscopy."
-Newsom, probably

My husbands having a colonoscopy on Wednesday. We go to DL in 5 weeks. Does that count?

 

[TikiTikiFan]

Meanwhile as an OOSer I'm over here wondering if I'll be able to get park reservations before the autumn or if it will be full...

At least the calendar only goes out 60 days so at least gives it some time. I'm sure DL will increase capacity too/add reservations.

 

[Bigmace]

At least the calendar only goes out 60 days so at least gives it some time. I'm sure DL will increase capacity too/add reservations.

I have a feeling DL is holding back some reservations after June 15th for out of staters. And if you stay at the Paradise pier you can almost guarantee you will get a park reservation. They are holding back spots for on property hotel’s guests.

 

[DLgal]

Meanwhile as an OOSer I'm over here wondering if I'll be able to get park reservations before the autumn or if it will be full...

It won't be full. You'll be fine.

 

[DLgal]

Reser


I have a feeling DL is holding back some reservations after June 15th for out of staters. And if you stay at the Paradise pier you can almost guarantee you will get a park reservation. They are holding back spots for on property hotel’s guests.

They are also most definitely going to increase capacity as soon as this weekend, since OC will be moving to yellow tier effective Thursday. Watch the calendar over the next few days.

 

[DLgal]

My husbands having a colonoscopy on Wednesday. We go to DL in 5 weeks. Does that count?

How dare you tell me that! HIPAA VIOLATION!!!

 

[Bigmace]

They are also most definitely going to increase capacity as soon as this weekend, since OC will be moving to yellow tier effective Thursday. Watch the calendar over the next few days.

Thats not what I was saying though. I was saying that I think they are holding back capacity until the State gives guidelines to allow out of state guests. Disney wants everyone's money, not just people from California. And I bet that most often out state guests spend more money than local guests, even with APs off the table.

 

[DLgal]

Thats not what I was saying though. I was saying that I think they are holding back capacity until the State gives guidelines to allow out of state guests. Disney wants everyone's money, not just people from California. And I bet that most often out state guests spend more money than local guests, even with APs off the table.

I don't think they are holding back capacity specifically for out of state guests. At this point, Disney doesn't care WHO comes, they want to fill the parks. Their dream scenario would be that June 16 comes around and OOS guests can come, but they are chock full and can't let in anymore people. They already know that they will be able to increase capacity as much as they want after June 15. Any capacity they are "holding back" is just the difference between the 25% they're allowed to book now and whatever theoretical maximum capacity they have in mind for June 16 onward. So, yeah, we will see a TON of park reservations open up after June 15, whether OOS people are allowed or not.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Thats not what I was saying though. I was saying that I think they are holding back capacity until the State gives guidelines to allow out of state guests. Disney wants everyone's money, not just people from California. And I bet that most often out state guests spend more money than local guests, even with APs off the table.

This isn't meant to be argumentative, but I'm curious how you feel out of state people spend more at the parks than in state people? Backing out locals, we all need to the same things - tickets, hotel & transportation. In the parks, we all eat & shop.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

This isn't meant to be argumentative, but I'm curious how you feel out of state people spend more at the parks than in state people? Backing out locals, we all need to the same things - tickets, hotel & transportation. In the parks, we all eat & shop.

Chapek seems to think so, in the last earning call he dealt some blows to APs- I can't link the article here but if you Google it comes up. The full quote is also buried a few pages back in the News Thread 2021 on the WDW side of the DIS.

"Chapek also stated that the per guest spending across the Disneyland Resort Annual Passholders was inconsistent, and the new program aimed to “get an adequate return to our shareholders for the type of experience that we do give to our guests”."

But let's not go down the who spends more road again. Only reason I point this out is if Chapek feels this is the case, whether we agree or not, I'm sure they're planning on adding reservations space when out of state quests can make them. Probably with the same approach WDW has done this whole time.. they seem to release their reservations in spurts rather than all at once.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

Either way I think anyone who wants to go after June 15th will be able to get a reservation.

But I get the nervousness of the whole thing... I plan on booking mine the minute they open up at the 60 day mark because of that anxiety haha.

 

[Malcon10t]

Let's see how this changes.

 

[kristensideaoffun]

Chapek seems to think so, in the last earning call he dealt some blows to APs- I can't link the article here but if you Google it comes up. The full quote is also buried a few pages back in the News Thread 2021 on the WDW side of the DIS.

"Chapek also stated that the per guest spending across the Disneyland Resort Annual Passholders was inconsistent, and the new program aimed to “get an adequate return to our shareholders for the type of experience that we do give to our guests”."

But let's not go down the who spends more road again. Only reason I point this out is if Chapek feels this is the case, whether we agree or not, I'm sure they're planning on adding reservations space when out of state quests can make them. Probably with the same approach WDW has done this whole time.. they seem to release their reservations in spurts rather than all at once.

Chapek was talking about AP holders vs regular ticket holders, not CA residents vs OOS. When the AP program existed, there were still plenty of people that lived in CA that visited DLR who were also not AP holders. The state of California is large enough that many people in Northern California travel further to visit DLR than some of the neighboring states. Not every CA visitor is considered a local AP holder, or even a local for that matter.

But as of right now, there is no AP program. If Disney were really holding back tickets for OOSers, they would only allow OOSers purchase them when they are released. But as of right now, everyone pretty much has the same spending potential. They are going to sell the maximum amount of tickets to the maximum capacity they are allowed without thought to where the buyer lives. But you can count on more tickets being available from the sheer fact that DLR will be allowed to let more people into the parks.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Chapek seems to think so, in the last earning call he dealt some blows to APs- I can't link the article here but if you Google it comes up. The full quote is also buried a few pages back in the News Thread 2021 on the WDW side of the DIS.

"Chapek also stated that the per guest spending across the Disneyland Resort Annual Passholders was inconsistent, and the new program aimed to “get an adequate return to our shareholders for the type of experience that we do give to our guests”."

But let's not go down the who spends more road again. Only reason I point this out is if Chapek feels this is the case, whether we agree or not, I'm sure they're planning on adding reservations space when out of state quests can make them. Probably with the same approach WDW has done this whole time.. they seem to release their reservations in spurts rather than all at once.

But the conversation wasn't about AP holders. We were talking about OOS vs. In state. And outside of locals, who may or may not make a staycation out of it, I don't see where there is any price difference, in the most general sense. As a matter of fact, there are OOS people who physically live closer to the parks than I do.

I don't disagree with the belief when it comes to APs. But it's important to remember that previous AP holders were both in state & OOS. And that currently there are NONE. So for right now, we're all playing on an equal playing field, cost wise.

But again, my question wasn't meant to be argumentative. I was honestly trying to figure out if there was some aspect I wasn't acknowledging when it comes to cost.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

Chapek was talking about AP holders vs regular ticket holders, not CA residents vs OOS. When the AP program existed, there were still plenty of people that lived in CA that visited DLR who were also not AP holders. The state of California is large enough that many people in Northern California travel further to visit DLR than some of the neighboring states. Not every CA visitor is considered a local AP holder, or even a local for that matter.

The majority of AP holders do live in California so that was the only reason I brought it up. We all know plenty of OOS guests are AP holders! I think Chapek's comments are likely targeted at the types that treat Disneyland as an "outdoor mall" and not folks like us on these forums that go and spend a significant amount of money.

But really, it's not a competition- I just think some folks should acknowledge OOS guests are valuable to DL. Just as valuable as you guys!

Again... I don't think anyone's going to have a problem securing a reservation. In fact, I think Disneyland is going to have an opposite problem until they release a new "frequent visitor" program or whatever they're calling it.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

But again, my question wasn't meant to be argumentative. I was honestly trying to figure out if there was some aspect I wasn't acknowledging when it comes to cost.

Since we just have anecdotal evidence to go on, it's probably moot to even try to figure out who spends more. I'd say it's probably more of a DISboards member spends more than a non-DISboards member than anything.

 

[kristensideaoffun]

The majority of AP holders do live in California so that was the only reason I brought it up. We all know plenty of OOS guests are AP holders! I think Chapek's comments are likely targeted at the types that treat Disneyland as an "outdoor mall" and not folks like us on these forums that go and spend a significant amount of money.

But really, it's not a competition- I just think some folks should acknowledge OOS guests are valuable to DL. Just as valuable as you guys!

Again... I don't think anyone's going to have a problem securing a reservation. In fact, I think Disneyland is going to have an opposite problem until they release a new "frequent visitor" program or whatever they're calling it.

I completely agree. Like I said, there are no AP holders right now so everyone has the same spending potential. Everyone is equally valuable right now in Disney’s eyes, so they are not going to hold back tickets for one group because of this (except people staying on property). I also agree that I don’t think getting reservations will be an issue once OOSers can visit. Disney is going to sell as many tickets to as many people as they are allowed now and then sell as many tickets to as many people as they can when they are allowed to bring in more people.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

I completely agree. Like I said, there are no AP holders right now so everyone has the same spending potential. Everyone is equally valuable right now in Disney’s eyes, so they are not going to hold back tickets for one group because of this (except people staying on property). I also agree that I don’t think getting reservations will be an issue once OOSers can visit. Disney is going to sell as many tickets to as many people as they are allowed now and then sell as many tickets to as many people as they can when they are allowed to bring in more people.

Agreed!! I'm more referring to my speculation about the 'process' of the reservation calendar. WDW releases their reservations in 'waves' for their calendar and is constantly adding more in spurts to dates that were previously 'sold out' and I think DL is taking a similar approach. I don't think they're setting aside tickets- I've already bought my tickets and will make my reservation right when I can! I meant I think they're planning on another 'wave' of reservations to release when they finally get the go ahead they can allow anyone and up capacity to whatever they want to all at the same time. I imagine the calendar will look much different when that happens.