If the flattening isn't working is it time to face reality?

[BuckeyeBama]

Ask Cuomo, he's the one saying it's not slowing.

The other day my county had 30 now we have 100.
A cashier at a local grocery store just tested positive so I expect that number to go up.

He is right - it can't "slow" yet because people were still actively spreading this without knowing it until they were forced to stop.

But those people who are already infected but do not know it yet - they will start to become symptomatic over the next 2 weeks, so the number of reported cases will keep going up, until we hit that window when the quarantining has been in place long enough to prove effective (or not).

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Actually it started at 8PM Sunday night.

Sorry, you are correct - he announced it Friday but it didn't take effect until Sunday.

 

[Kitty 34]

Actually it started at 8PM Sunday night.

It certainly puts a weird perspective on the 'ole Time Change we all went thru on March 8th. Which for me seems like a hundred years ago.

 

[skyblue17]

It appears on March 12 things started to shut down there.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/coron...ow-the-disease-spread-through-the-metro-area/

My neighborhood did not quiet down until the day the restaurants and bars were closed. The city was packed for St. Patrick's Day weekend. But I only live here.

 

[3 MEN AND A BOAT]

They’ll either open most of it back up in a couple weeks tops, or people will start ignoring it.

 

[mom2rtk]

This is 100% true. But I am shocked to see people say out loud that they are willing to let anyone die. I mean, if you make an off color joke today or call someone fat then you are treated like a pariah, but we have turned on a dime. We went from protecting everyone form anything to a willingness to decide how many we are willing to sacrifice.

That is what scares me far more than the virus. Not the economy. Not the number of people who will die. But what is happening to our society.

People die in car crashes every day. Yet we haven’t outlawed cars yet. Risk benefit analysis is done on many issues every day.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

People die in car crashes every day. Yet we haven’t outlawed cars yet. Risk benefit analysis is done on many issues every day.

No, but we did make seat belt laws and we do enforce a very, very long list of laws about car safety. And it took us decades to do so because Americans did not want to hear about the risks. Heck, we still have people who don't wear seat belts because they might drown if their car crashes into a body of water.

Same applies to tobacco products. Americans do not want to be told that they are in danger if they do not change their behavior. This has been the case throughout our history. Our cogitative dissonance when it comes to these things is astounding. We have to be forced to change our self destructive behaviors.

 

[mjkacmom]

He is right - it can't "slow" yet because people were still actively spreading this without knowing it until they were forced to stop.

But those people who are already infected but do not know it yet - they will start to become symptomatic over the next 2 weeks, so the number of reported cases will keep going up, until we hit that window when the quarantining has been in place long enough to prove effective (or not).

Yes, those testing positive were going on with life as usual two weeks ago, my town had a Saint Patrick’s day parade two weeks ago with the bars packed with people.

 

[DopeyDame]

I am guessing people shocked that schools are closing for year don’t end school year until later in June. In the south, many schools start the 1st week of August and have graduation in mid-May before Memorial Day. Include time for Easter, test prep and test taking, finals, there aren’t many days of “learning” left for a lot of school systems. When my mother was still teaching, July was the only month my son could visit when both our northeast and her southern school were on summer break.

Fair enough. You're right. We don't end until mid-June and didn't start until after labor day. So there's still a LOT o the school year left.

 

[b2k1121]

People die in car crashes every day. Yet we haven’t outlawed cars yet. Risk benefit analysis is done on many issues every day.

Right but there are safety standards cars need to pass that significantly reduce chances of death during crashes.

I also can't catch a car crash by passing by another car crash.

 

[LuvOrlando]

This makes sense. I wonder how many people currently hospitalized here could be moved home if this was in use everywhere:

Seattle hospital monitoring nearly 300 potential coronavirus patients remotely
From CNN's Sonia Moghe

Providence St. Joseph’s Health in Seattle, Washington, is currently monitoring 279 Covid-19 positive and presumptive positive patients remotely from their homes.
It’s helping free up hundreds of beds, and reducing exposure for health care workers to possible cases, and patients who may not end up having Covid-19 to the virus, the hospital said.
Patients, who test positive, or are currently awaiting their test results, are sent home with a thermometer and a pulse oximeter, which helps check oxygen levels and heart rate, said Hargobind Khurana, medical director of the hospital's telehealth services. They input their temperature, oxygen level and heart rate into the app. Their vitals are monitored and an automated system checks in every few hours to make sure their symptoms are not worsening.

This is brilliant! Professionals can triage many more patients and prevent wasted resources like time and space. With this style there could be teams of Drs safely evaluating hundreds of patients for alarming changes and then directing advanced care as is needed while keeping at a safe distance. Amazing what can take shape when humans are forced to adapt.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

People die in car crashes every day. Yet we haven’t outlawed cars yet. Risk benefit analysis is done on many issues every day.

37k deaths annually in car crashes = 101 deaths a day

We have been above that rate the last few days and it's only getting worse.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[Hikergirl]

My neighborhood did not quiet down until the day the restaurants and bars were closed. The city was packed for St. Patrick's Day weekend. But I only live here.

According to the timeline in the link things started shutting down on March 12.
I never stated which things or that there was a complete lockdown so I'm not quite sure of your point in posting this.

I looked, apparently Broadway shut down. I guess you don't live in that neighborhood then.

 

[skyblue17]

According to the timeline in the link things started shutting down on March 12.
I never stated which things or that there was a complete lockdown so I'm not quite sure of your point in posting this.

I looked, apparently Broadway shut down. I guess you don't live in that neighborhood then.

I actually work in Times Square. My department started working from home on that day, yes. Even that was less than two weeks ago. And that doesn't mean people started staying home. Many things were still open and people were still out and about for awhile yet after that. Which means that the current restrictions in place have not had enough time to work, it hasn't been a full two weeks yet.

 

[mom2rtk]

Right but there are safety standards cars need to pass that significantly reduce chances of death during crashes.

I also can't catch a car crash by passing by another car crash.

Maybe not. But another car can easily crash into you.

Regardless of the safety standards, the numbers are still quite significant.

37k deaths annually in car crashes = 101 deaths a day

We have been above that rate the last few days and it's only getting worse.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[Hikergirl]

He is right - it can't "slow" yet because people were still actively spreading this without knowing it until they were forced to stop.

But those people who are already infected but do not know it yet - they will start to become symptomatic over the next 2 weeks, so the number of reported cases will keep going up, until we hit that window when the quarantining has been in place long enough to prove effective (or not).

I'm not sure if you are in NY but if you aren't you'd might be surprised to know that this shelter in place isn't really all that different than the measures that were in place on the weekend before it went into effect.
There is a list of essential things that remain open, where people are still going in to work.
Sure they are supposed to keep their distance from others, but it isn't always possible, and people don't always listen.
People are still out shopping at those essential liquor stores, hardware stores and department stores.
As long as people are going out the virus will still spread.

 

[Hikergirl]

I actually work in Times Square. My department started working from home on that day, yes. Even that was less than two weeks ago. And that doesn't mean people started staying home. Many things were still open and people were still out and about for awhile yet after that. Which means that the current restrictions in place have not had enough time to work, it hasn't been a full two weeks yet.

Ok, but still "we" have been taking measures since the 12th, with each new measure more restrictive.

But you seem to know what you are talking about so you should contact Cuomo, I'm sure he'll be happy to hear that from you

 

[Jennasis]

I wish people would stop trying to compare this to smoking, car crashes, cancer...etc.

Let's just buckle down and do what has to be done. It will suck (I have a small business that would take a HUGE hit and might not recover). Let's just stop arguing and straw man and blah blah blah.

Everybody stay home for 2 weeks and lets see where we are then.

 

[mom2rtk]

I'm not sure if you are in NY but if you aren't you'd might be surprised to know that this shelter in place isn't really all that different than the measures that were in place on the weekend before it went into effect.
There is a list of essential things that remain open, where people are still going in to work.
Sure they are supposed to keep their distance from others, but it isn't always possible, and people don't always listen.
People are still out shopping at those essential liquor stores, hardware stores and department stores.
As long as people are going out the virus will still spread.

I'd stay in a whole lot more if I could get more than 25% of my groceries at a time.

 

[sam_gordon]

As long as people are going out the virus will still spread.

Let's be honest... a full on quarantine won't work either. The trick is to CUT DOWN how many are out and about, not eliminate everyone.