What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[ilovebassets]

I find it amazing that after everything that's going on that anyone would ever want to go on a cruise again. Or that the cruise industry is going to survive this.

We rebooked for spring break 2021, but it's possible it will be our last cruise after this madness.

 

[MomOTwins]

I feel like I need a dart board with every month for the next two years--that'd be about as accurate as anything I could say right now.

Not to be a debbie downer, but if the cruise lines don't sail again until the fall then I'm not sure how many of them will still be in business. I think Disney will be ok because they only have four ships and a large company backing them but Royal, Carnival and NCL are going to be in major trouble if we are down that long

That was my rationale for May too. Back to business or out of business.

 

[dclpluto]

It's not about "being around people," it's about being basically trapped without any way to extricate yourself. Or perhaps you didn't read about all the people who were quarantined on cruise ships?

If I go to the movies, the door isn't locked and I can't get out. I can leave.

I do have issues going to the grocery store and I'm very careful now. I live in New York. I'm careful going to the laundry room in our building. I'm not kidding.

I would be more worried about living in NYC than going on a cruise. You said New York I’m assuming NYC. I know it’s not right when people say New York the first thing I think of is NYC.

 

[DIS_MIKE]

Difficult to answer this question.....especially after Dr. Oz came out today and said that over a million Americans could die from this virus. How devastatingly awful!

This is very hard to predict but as others have pointed out, this will devastate the travel and cruise industry for years to come which means there will likely not be a "normal" for some time. We'll just have a "new" and "adjusted" normal. As a Nation, we will be forced to adapt...just like we did after 9/11 with new procedures and protocols.

This was already brought up in this thread, but I've also taken into consideration that Australia has very warm weather, and yet, the virus is thriving there.

I do not expect my cruise in May to happen. I continue to wait in a holding pattern (like so many others) until DCL finally makes a new announcement. I originally was going to call them and change my sail date to August but then I thought about it and realized that this will likely not be over by then. At this point I just want to be refunded so I can stop worrying about it so I continue to wait for Disney to provide that option for me.

So when will the ships sail again? We really don't know but right now I think we can all agree along with the CDC that getting on a cruise ship right now is the last thing anyone should be doing. With all of that being said, I feel that looking at cruises for 2021 is your best bet at this time. Let's hope things get back to normal in the Fall.

 

[Heather07438]

We went to WDW in Dec 2019 and decided to take 2020 off (before any virus knowledge).

In January/early February we booked a 9 day trip to WDW for mid January 2021.

Hard to say... maybe 70% possible at this point? My hope is the situation mellows, then we go and CELEBRATE!

Honestly, I think one method of action we might take is a temporary lockdown (as many of us are currently doing). Then we can get the numbers low enough to manage healthcare and contain excessive spread. From then on as flare-ups arise, only certain areas get quarantined. Hopefully then maybe only 5-10% would be quarantined at any given time. Mostly just wishful thinking.

 

[bunnm09]

It's not about "being around people," it's about being basically trapped without any way to extricate yourself. Or perhaps you didn't read about all the people who were quarantined on cruise ships?

If I go to the movies, the door isn't locked and I can't get out. I can leave.

I do have issues going to the grocery store and I'm very careful now. I live in New York. I'm careful going to the laundry room in our building. I'm not kidding.

of course I read about the issues on ships. A handful of ships out of the hundreds at sea around the world. But you were locked on the boats before this all started too. Did you ever enjoy going on cruises? I don’t want to be rude but if you’re worried about being locked on a cruise ship why spend your time browsing a cruise message board?

 

[spiders]

Well, if you think early May...then there are deals to be had. I just got an email that JetBlue is down to $39 round trip taxes and fees included from Atlanta to Orlando May 2.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

of course I read about the issues on ships. A handful of ships out of the hundreds at sea around the world. But you were locked on the boats before this all started too. Did you ever enjoy going on cruises? I don’t want to be rude but if you’re worried about being locked on a cruise ship why spend your time browsing a cruise message board?

Again: When people have been "locked on ships" during this issue, they are confined to their cabins. It's not fun times. It's questions of when they'll get home, if they get isolated again at home, eating cold food delivered to unit daily, etc. etc.

 

[quandrea]

I’m thinking October/November of 2021, if we get a successful roll out of a vaccine. Until there is a vaccine and reliable therapeutics, we won’t be able to let go of the social distancing. There will be some return to normalcy as people become immune after having had the infection, but the vaccine will be the only thing that signals a return to safer travel.

 

[thndrmatt]

I find it amazing that after everything that's going on that anyone would ever want to go on a cruise again. Or that the cruise industry is going to survive this.

I have to ask, with that opinion, why are you viewing the DCL sub-forum or bothering to post? Seems like you should move on to other topics more relevant to you.

 

[bunnm09]

Again: When people have been "locked on ships" during this issue, they are confined to their cabins. It's not fun times. It's questions of when they'll get home, if they get isolated again at home, eating cold food delivered to unit daily, etc. etc.

but we are talking about things returning to normal. Not sailing at the peak of this....

this isn’t going to last forever. If you think the industry is done and no one should cruise again idk why you’d be reading the thread or this message board to begin with

 

[Intr3pid]

Until the vaccine comes out, there won't be any "normal" travel. That actually means next year.

Suppose you have no new cases in your country, and all the existing cases have either recovered or sadly resulted in death. But, there are countries in the world where cases are still developing. Would you restore travel back to normal levels? No! You import one case, and the whole cycle will restart.

In late summer/early fall, once airports, border crossings, and ports have been equipped with testing facilities, you might see the path back to normalcy. You might see more extensive health screening than the current security screening.

So, we need to get everyone to recover and see no new cases in any major region in the world (or the cases are very well quarantined - such as Ebola in W Africa). We also need to equip all entry ports with extensive health screening. Either that - or get a vaccine out first.

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

The spread of virus in Australia is showing heat is not a factor,

It is not hot in Australia right now. They've been having highs of 60's & 70's, not 80's & up. So the fact that they have cases does not tell us anything about what summer will be like. These types of viruses do tend to die down in summer, and that seems like a very reasonable prediction.

 

[smacmillan83]

It is not hot in Australia right now. They've been having highs of 60's & 70's, not 80's & up. So the fact that they have cases does not tell us anything about what summer will be like. These types of viruses do tend to die down in summer, and that seems like a very reasonable prediction.

I live in Australia. It's now our Autumn, our temperatures are cooling (mostly - yesterday it was 36 degrees celcius in Sydney but that was unusually warm) yet in NSW, our infection rates are doubling. Our peak is expected round our usual flu season - July/August.

 

[Intr3pid]

...
Or perhaps you didn't read about all the people who were quarantined on cruise ships?
...
I do have issues going to the grocery store and I'm very careful now. I live in New York. I'm careful going to the laundry room in our building. I'm not kidding.

You might also want to read this:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/new...ird-of-all-us-cases-mayor-de-blasio-says.html

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I live in Australia. It's now our Autumn, our temperatures are cooling (mostly - yesterday it was 36 degrees celcius in Sydney but that was unusually warm) yet in NSW, our infection rates are doubling. Our peak is expected round our usual flu season - July/August.

Well, even if you believe hot weather will help, that won't help Iceland or the PacNW and Canada/Alaska coasts.

 

[tidefan]

Well, even if you believe hot weather will help, that won't help Iceland or the PacNW and Canada/Alaska coasts.

I don't think anyone knows right now. I mean, Miami has a defined flu season and it's usually in the 80's there. A number of people also think UV radiation from sunlight could be a factor, or, more likely for the flu at least, it's a combination of a number of things. In Statistics, we call that "Confounding"...

Back to the topic of this thread, I think that if the world gets a handle on this by Summer (a "huge" if...), I think that you will see very stringent testing and quarantine of anyone that shows positive until such time that a treatment or vaccine can be developed. However, I don't think that at this point, anyone has a good handle on how this will play out. We just have to take it one day at a time...

If I had to guess though, I'd say December 2020, plus or minus 6 months...

 

[gotomu212]

For me I want to see what happens in China- do they get a second wave? I want to see what cases look like here in 6 weeks- will we have several hotspots or will it be spread out. And this sounds so grim, but if the cases tick up and people start losing parents or their friends lose parents I think public sentiment will shift. Plus, what happens with the economy-will there be a lot of pent up demand hat gets released or will people be hurting and not able to afford travel?

I think the biggest issue will be psychology of demand. Airlines and hotels are downsizing because demand has disappeared more than from government restrictions. There are always some people less risk adverse, but unless there are thousands and thousands certain travel companies like cruising won’t have enough demand.

 

[mkb3]

We‘ve had pandemics before, cruising will still be a thing.

 

[starry_solo]

I would say mid-to-late summer. Things can't close down for more than that, otherwise, everything is out of business.