What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[slmoy1016]

It's a difficult question to answer...giving that it's a moving target / updates are coming every hour. Right now, US is lagging 12 days behind Italy in cases.

Any normalcy won't be for a while until social distancing measures help reduce the burden in healthcare systems. I'm not booking any trips for a while. Haven't even looked at 2021 for cruises or WDW trips.

Even summer 2020 (late June / early July) sounds like a rough estimate for things to improve. Only time will tell.

 

[soniam]

Think how many lives we could save from car accidents, if people would focus on improving driving skills with the amount of energy going into this virus. More people worldwide are killed in car accidents than have died from this virus. Although, I am sure those deaths are decreasing with the quarantined and lockdowns. I’m not downplaying either of these. But I sometimes am amazed by what grabs our focus, versus what’s already been there. I am thinking June.

 

[Sakura1017]

I'm saying summer 2021

 

[Geomom]

I think things will be back up and running by June...not necessarily 'normal' though. Businesses just can't stay closed that long without going out of business. I am hopeful that there will at least be a treatment for COVID-19 by then--it is a worldwide effort to find treatments/cures/vaccines. I read that an IBM supercomputer had identified 70 existing compounds that may have some effect on the virus--so at least scientists have a starting point.

 

[AlohaNow]

It's nice to think that we may still sail in October. But I know that we probably won't.

 

[Karin1984]

I think and hope travel will be back up in the summer, however, if all tourists attractions will be back in business, I am not too sure.
I think for the rest of the year we will have measures in one way or the other.

 

[lorimay]

In my delusional mind, I would love an October Bermuda cruise and a few days in NYC.....
Probably a pipe dream, but I need one right now.

 

[randumb0]

Most likely the fall. Just because the US is doing better doesn't mean the cruise destinations will be. If they are still battling this then a cruise ship will be he last thing they want

 

[nearlyfallinstar]

I'm still hopeful for my Alaska cruise in late August. If you can believe reports in China (IF), things are dying down. It took about three months for that to happen. So we're looking at the beginning of June for us to be where they are. If we're lucky, since we started all of these preventative measures before they did (and Italy did), maybe we'll be out of it before that even. So...I'm hopeful. I do think that they will probably be taking our temperature before travel for awhile. It may even become a permanent thing (although I am more afraid of norovirus on cruise ships than catching the flu/coronavirus/airborne whatever). I'm pretty okay with them taking our temperatures at port. It always seemed silly that we fill out a form saying that we are healthy and that is the end of it. Taking temps will slow down boarding though...

 

[KashasMom]

We've already had to cancel Sedona/Grand Canyon in April and London in May. We have Galapagos booked for July and India booked for August. I will be devastated if we have to cancel either of those. (We've already lost a lot of money and stand to lose a lot more.) For me the worst part is that we'll have to bump tentative plans for 2021 so we can go the Galapagos. India was for a special festival and unfortunately if we miss it, we miss is for many years (because of school schedule). We also have a Disney Med cruise planned for June 2021 and I think for a lot of reasons we we likely cancel that one.

We're on day 8 of self-isolation and I'm already losing my mind. Can't even think of planning anything new or even re-booking until we know what's going to happen. My own opinion is that things are going to get A LOT worse in so many ways. I don't see travel rebounding until the fall, although I hope I am wrong about that! I am keeping track of the companies that are working with (all of) us as we have to cancel and the ones who don't! Many are not offering any refunds or credits.

All of that being said, I am VERY grateful to be in the position we are in. So many others have it so much worse and I hope they get through this.

 

[cruisehopeful]

October 2020 for no reason other than that's what comes to my mind instantly before I have a chance to think about anything. Although, I must say, I can't really imagine travel feeling "normal" again for the foreseeable future. We never went back to "normal" after 9/11, so perhaps a new normal is more likely.

 

[Cruising Engineer]

I predict it will be over by late August, just in time for our September cruise and hurricane season.

 

[JayhawkCruiser]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Temperature scanning stick around for cruises and even at airports after this. I actually would fully support that new normal since we can’t count on people to do the right thing and not travel when they’re sick.

 

[catali150]

I have to ask, with that opinion, why are you viewing the DCL sub-forum or bothering to post? Seems like you should move on to other topics more relevant to you.

I find it very relevant to post your thoughts and feelings on how this environment has changed your perception of and desire to cruise in the future. We're all living through this strange time together. What is gained by being anything less than supportive of one another?

 

[catali150]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Temperature scanning stick around for cruises and even at airports after this. I actually would fully support that new normal since we can’t count on people to do the right thing and not travel when they’re sick.

Well people with respiratory viral infections are often infectious during the asymptomatic period. So temp scanning is a false sense of security.

 

[catali150]

I predict it will be over by late August, just in time for our September cruise and hurricane season.

Love the optimism!

 

[catali150]

Until the vaccine comes out, there won't be any "normal" travel. That actually means next year.

Suppose you have no new cases in your country, and all the existing cases have either recovered or sadly resulted in death. But, there are countries in the world where cases are still developing. Would you restore travel back to normal levels? No! You import one case, and the whole cycle will restart.

In late summer/early fall, once airports, border crossings, and ports have been equipped with testing facilities, you might see the path back to normalcy. You might see more extensive health screening than the current security screening.

So, we need to get everyone to recover and see no new cases in any major region in the world (or the cases are very well quarantined - such as Ebola in W Africa). We also need to equip all entry ports with extensive health screening. Either that - or get a vaccine out first.

One thing to keep in mind about the cycle restarting is that once infected, people MAY develop natural immunity. Of course we don't yet know how this will play out, but there is hope that even without a vaccine, if enough of the population becomes immune (80% = herd immunity) as a result of a CoVid infection, that will help prevent local epidemics from recurring. Here's to hoping, anyway...

 

[OKW Lover]

When do you think tourism will be allowed again? I realize it’s anyone’s guess. what’s yours?

My guess is May 10. That's for when actual travel resumes. It will still take quite a while after that for people to actually resume their normal travel schedules though.

 

[aggiedog]

If we are lucky, and social distancing works, we will keep millions of people from needing health care all at once. However, because there is no current immunity to this virus anywhere on the planet (besides hopefully those that have contracted and survived) it will continue to percolate (with smaller outbreaks that max out but not overwhelm health care services) until enough people get it for us to develop herd immunity, or until a vaccine becomes widely available. Estimates put both of those timeframes at 18 months.

Until then, we surely can't be on shelter in place or the world economy will collapse, but I think most travel will be impractical at best, impossible at worst.

So, summer 2021, maybe later, before pre-Covid type of travel occurs.

 

[Intr3pid]

One thing to keep in mind about the cycle restarting is that once infected, people MAY develop natural immunity. Of course we don't yet know how this will play out, but there is hope that even without a vaccine, if enough of the population becomes immune (80% = herd immunity) as a result of a CoVid infection, that will help prevent local epidemics from recurring. Here's to hoping, anyway...

That's true. Natural immunity occurs at the individual levels. Unfortunately, it means a large proportion of the population will have to be infected. Without available treatments or healthcare capacity, that's a more painful path. Travel will be the least of our concerns.