Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[OSUZorba]

Any thoughts on why BWV is dropping so much more than the others? That is the one I've always thought about, but don't love the 2042 expiration. That only gets my daughter to 26, so (hopefully) no taking grandkids.

 

[Sandisw]

Any thoughts on why BWV is dropping so much more than the others? That is the one I've always thought about, but don't love the 2042 expiration. That only gets my daughter to 26, so (hopefully) no taking grandkids.

The demand is down for sure, I sold one in October within a very short time...a few days...for almost $5 more than what my current one will be sold for, assuming buyers send back paperwork,

Its been on the market for 6 weeks. I did have a buyer a month ago, but they backed out...

Still, given the lower price, below most ROFR threshold, I thought it would go much faster,

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I’ve been wanting to buy at VGF for sooo long but couldn’t stomach the 180s for points I see everywhere. I thinking in this climate I can possible start offering less on those contracts and maybe snag one I’m now debating on doing that. We are in the process of selling our AKL contract so we will have some extra cash for it besides our normal savings

How long? I could have bought VGF a year ago for $155/pt. It was just summer/fall that prices started to increase there and there are now a contracts showing up for less than that $180/pt. I've seen a couple in the high 160's recently.

 

[DisMomKY]

How long? I could have bought VGF a year ago for $155/pt. It was just summer/fall that prices started to increase there and there are now a contracts showing up for less than that $180/pt. I've seen a couple in the high 160's recently.

I’ve been not wanting to spend over $140 a point. So it’s always been out of reach and likely will stay that way

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I’ve been not wanting to spend over $140 a point. So it’s always been out of reach and likely will stay that way

I think the early price for existing DVC members was $145/pt? I feel like there was a time where a few people bought resale in the $130's but that's been awhile. You never know unless you put in the offer. Who knows in a couple more months what it'll look like.

 

[Matty B13]

I think the early price for existing DVC members was $145/pt? I feel like there was a time where a few people bought resale in the $130's but that's been awhile. You never know unless you put in the offer. Who knows in a couple more months what it'll look like.

I think that was in 2016 that VGF could be had for $130/point because that is when we bought in at $145/point resale and we were jealous of the people who could get such a good deal.

 

[raysmd]

curious about VGF, do you think prices can dip below $135? I would love to buy around $130 or even lower. wishful thinking?

 

[BrianLo]

curious about VGF, do you think prices can dip below $135? I would love to buy around $130 or even lower. wishful thinking?

I don't think so at all. That's also the resort I'm gravitating towards and waiting for the Fall to evaluate. I think a 20-30% decline across the board for every resort is a strong possibility.

VGC was going for as low as 80$ during the recession, so frankly I don't think talking about VGF hitting 120$ is unrealistic, which is maybe even the range I'm holding out for.

 

[poofyo101]

curious about VGF, do you think prices can dip below $135? I would love to buy around $130 or even lower. wishful thinking?

I had a VGF bought back lower than 130 plus dues and closing bought back a few weeks ago. Not sure what the threshold right now is for VGF.

 

[raysmd]

you mean, Disney exercised their ROFR?

I had a VGF bought back lower than 130 plus dues and closing bought back a few weeks ago. Not sure what the threshold right now is for VGF.

 

[CastAStone]

I had a VGF bought back lower than 130 plus dues and closing bought back a few weeks ago. Not sure what the threshold right now is for VGF.

A moving target.

www.dvcresalemarket.com had a little over 8000 points for sale right on Wednesday night when I pulled a spreadsheet of all their listings together for myself. That's 0.35% of all the points they sold for the resort. No other resort is even half that. Yes it's one site but it's indicative.

For comparison:

Property	% of all points ever sold for that resort that are for resale now on DVC Resale market
VGF	0.35%
BLT	0.16%
PVB	0.16%
CCV	0.15%
BCV	0.13%
OKW	0.11%
SSR	0.10%
BWV	0.10%
AKV	0.07%
BRV	0.05%
Riviera	0.00%

 

[BeachNut]

A moving target.

www.dvcresalemarket.com had a little over 8000 points for sale right on Wednesday night when I pulled a spreadsheet of all their listings together for myself. That's 0.35% of all the points they sold for the resort. No other resort is even half that. Yes it's one site but it's indicative.

For comparison:

Property	% of all points ever sold for that resort that are for resale now on DVC Resale market
VGF	0.35%
BLT	0.16%
PVB	0.16%
CCV	0.15%
BCV	0.13%
OKW	0.11%
SSR	0.10%
BWV	0.10%
AKV	0.07%
BRV	0.05%
Riviera	0.00%

I’ve noticed there are very few BRV points for sale. Why is that? Is it because they’re already cheap?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I’ve noticed there are very few BRV points for sale. Why is that? Is it because they’re already cheap?

It's a very small resort. Onsite at WDW only VGF is smaller.

 

[bookwormde]

4/10 update

newly posted resales were about 25% above average

This appears to be from 2 large blocks of points

1000 BCV (5x200)
960 SSR (4x240)

 

[MICKIMINI]

There is a VGF for $152 I saw this morning - they are slowly drifting downward.

 

[BeachNut]

It's a very small resort. Onsite at WDW only VGF is smaller.

I hear you - but VGF is smaller and there are many, many resale listings for that right now.

 

[CastAStone]

I hear you - but VGF is smaller and there are many, many resale listings for that right now.

The four most recent resorts have the highest percent of points for sale. I imagine that’s buyers remorse. BRV has been open for like 20 years, so that’s a lot less of an issue.

 

[glamdring269]

BRV owners are also likely a slightly different breed on average than owners of other resorts.

Signed,
BRV Owner

 

[bookwormde]

A moving target.

www.dvcresalemarket.com had a little over 8000 points for sale right on Wednesday night when I pulled a spreadsheet of all their listings together for myself. That's 0.35% of all the points they sold for the resort. No other resort is even half that. Yes it's one site but it's indicative.

For comparison:

Property	% of all points ever sold for that resort that are for resale now on DVC Resale market
VGF	0.35%
BLT	0.16%
PVB	0.16%
CCV	0.15%
BCV	0.13%
OKW	0.11%
SSR	0.10%
BWV	0.10%
AKV	0.07%
BRV	0.05%
Riviera	0.00%

Great data, though I think the numbers may be off by a factor of 0.1

Here is what I got from the other big re-seller (30,544 points)

AKV 0.041%
BLT 0.031%
BCV 0.068%
BWV 0.030%
BRV 0.091%
CCV 0.103%
OKW 0.024%
POLY 0.124%
SSR 0.052%
VGF 0.086%

 

[CastAStone]

Great data, though I think the numbers may be off by a factor of 0.1

Here is what I got from the other big re-seller (30,544 points)

AKV 0.041%
BLT 0.031%
BCV 0.068%
BWV 0.030%
BRV 0.091%
CCV 0.103%
OKW 0.024%
POLY 0.124%
SSR 0.052%
VGF 0.056%

If I was unclear there were over 8000 VGF points. That’s 0.3% of the ~2.5m VGF points sold.

Interesting the data is so different at this other seller.