Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[BWV Dreamin]

4/13 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average

What site?

 

[bookwormde]

What site?

I use 5 sites that I can time or sequence track

 

[lovethesun12]

I use 5 sites that I can time or sequence track

I'm curious for your opinion and reasoning because I have appreciated your posts Do you think less contracts being listed plays into the theory prices might drop, go against the theory, or just an observance with no real indication?

 

[bookwormde]

I'm curious for your opinion and reasoning because I have appreciated your posts Do you think less contracts being listed plays into the theory prices might drop, go against the theory, or just an observance with no real indication?

I think that the fact that there has not been a flood of new contracts come on the market has kept the market orderly in as much as there are adequate buyers at a moderately reduced price.

While there are individual resort variations from my original guesses the rate of drop is in line so far. If buyers back away or wait and or more need to sell the price decline could accelerate, but as of now I do not see anything in the short term indicate that will happen.

My perception is that the economic impact has been less of a factor than I expected with the frustration of point loss and not knowing when DVC will re-open and how bad the point overload and reservation challenges will be causing the greater impact on the sellers side

On the buying side I am still trying to figure out how much direct sales being shut down which I did not expect and resale being the only game in town is having on the number of buyers

 

[lovethesun12]

I think that the fact that there has not been a flood of new contracts come on the market has kept the market orderly in as much as there are adequate buyers at a moderately reduced price.

While there are individual resort variations from my original guesses the rate of drop is in line so far. If buyers back away or wait and or more need to sell the price decline could accelerate, but as of now I do not see anything in the short term indicate that will happen.

My perception is that the economic impact has been less of a factor than I expected with the frustration of point loss and not knowing when DVC will re-open and how bad the point overload and reservation challenges will be causing the greater impact on the sellers side

On the buying side I am still trying to figure out how much direct sales being shut down which I did not expect and resale being the only game in town is having on the number of buyers

Thanks! That makes a lot of sense =)

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

My perception is that the economic impact has been less of a factor than I expected with the frustration of point loss and not knowing when DVC will re-open and how bad the point overload and reservation challenges will be causing the greater impact on the sellers side

Luxury items like sports cars and timeshares are always going to be a lagging item that people only sell when they have to. Then you have to exhaust the buyers that have cash and will jump on something slightly cheaper than it was a month ago.

If this turns into a real recession you won't see the bottom of prices for a while. I think it has been mentioned that resale prices bottomed in 2012 during the last recession? That was a couple years after the stock market hit it's lowest point.

 

[igrsod]

Luxury items like sports cars and timeshares are always going to be a lagging item that people only sell when they have to. Then you have to exhaust the buyers that have cash and will jump on something slightly cheaper than it was a month ago.

If this turns into a real recession you won't see the bottom of prices for a while. I think it has been mentioned that resale prices bottomed in 2012 during the last recession? That was a couple years after the stock market hit it's lowest point.

That's exactly what my husband said today when we were discussing resale prices. I am seeing some slight decrease in prices on newly listed contracts... but he keeps telling me to be patient and wait.... it will drop much lower in a year or so.

 

[CastAStone]

That's exactly what my husband said today when we were discussing resale prices. I am seeing some slight decrease in prices on newly listed contracts... but he keeps telling me to be patient and wait.... it will drop much lower in a year or so.

Curious too about what’s listed and what’s selling. Fidelity shows several OKW “sale pendings” in the high $70s, but everything still listed is much, much higher. It’s going to take some time for people to drop their asking price, in most cases it’s not like they owe anything for the next 7 months.

 

[Sandisw]

Curious too about what’s listed and what’s selling. Fidelity shows several OKW “sale pendings” in the high $70s, but everything still listed is much, much higher. It’s going to take some time for people to drop their asking price, in most cases it’s not like they owe anything for the next 7 months.

Just agreed to $115.50 for my BWV contract, Sold one the same size with similar points for $120 in October.

 

[Matty B13]

Curious too about what’s listed and what’s selling. Fidelity shows several OKW “sale pendings” in the high $70s, but everything still listed is much, much higher. It’s going to take some time for people to drop their asking price, in most cases it’s not like they owe anything for the next 7 months.

Fidelity's website isn't the most up to date website most days. Some of those listings could be from months ago.

 

[Heather07438]

That's exactly what my husband said today when we were discussing resale prices. I am seeing some slight decrease in prices on newly listed contracts... but he keeps telling me to be patient and wait.... it will drop much lower in a year or so.

We're going to be patient too and watch the next 6 months, then in the fall decide whether to wait longer or not.

 

[DougEMG]

Luxury items like sports cars and timeshares are always going to be a lagging item that people only sell when they have to. Then you have to exhaust the buyers that have cash and will jump on something slightly cheaper than it was a month ago.

If this turns into a real recession you won't see the bottom of prices for a while. I think it has been mentioned that resale prices bottomed in 2012 during the last recession? That was a couple years after the stock market hit it's lowest point.

That is exactly what happened last time there was a financial crisis, prices hit their lows a couple of years after the event. Early on the new sellers are those trying to get out before the prices fall. Not until people are desperate and need to sell combined with a lack of buyers will prices drop significantly. So it is way to early to be expecting any significant price drops.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

4/13 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average

I've either missed or forgotten where and what timeframe your average comes from?

 

[bookwormde]

The baseline is what I was seeing over the 6 months before C-19

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

The baseline is what I was seeing over the 6 months before C-19

Thank you.

 

[bookwormde]

4/14 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average

It is interesting though understandable that while most months are reasonably distributed, there are a lot less September and October contracts entering the market

 

[4luv2cdisney]

4/14 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average

It is interesting though understandable that while most months are reasonably distributed, there are a lot less September and October contracts entering the market

I think this is always the case. I have an Oct UY and they are hard to come by.

I think I've read Sept may be even slightly harder to find.

 

[wallawallakids]

I think this is always the case. I have an Oct UY and they are hard to come by.

I think I've read Sept may be even slightly harder to find.

I am sure this is obvious, but if you don't mind telling me, why is that? Thank you.

 

[CastAStone]

At a lot of resorts there just aren’t that many fall UYs:

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...ear-distribution-charts-updated-february-2018

 

[wallawallakids]

At a lot of resorts there just aren’t that many fall UYs:

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...ear-distribution-charts-updated-february-2018

Thank you!