Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[holyrita]

What I find interesting looking at that distribution chart is December and February having the highest percentages.

If you want to be careful about when you can bank your points, you would likely not want to book during the fall with a December UY. With a February UY not during the holidays.

Am I interpreting this incorrectly? Sept/Oct seem perfect for me because I don't travel to Disney during the summer months.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

What I find interesting looking at that distribution chart is December and February having the highest percentages.

If you want to be careful about when you can bank your points, you would likely not want to book during the fall with a December UY. With a February UY not during the holidays.

Am I interpreting this incorrectly? Sept/Oct seem perfect for me because I don't travel to Disney during the summer months.

AKV was sold with an inordinately high percentage of December contracts. They stuck on that UY for a long time for some reason. And BLT was inordinately high with Feb - same thing where DVC just stuck to that forever. If buyers weren't asking for something different those were the defaults for a lot of the sales time. OKW was really the main one where they really kept things even and the rest have been a mix - some relatively even and then others like AKV and BLT being very skewed.

 

[bookwormde]

4/15 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 125% of average

I will be posting some mid month interim data summaries today

 

[bookwormde]

Mid month resorts with significant declines between 3/31 and 4/15

Format: resort 3/20 to 3/31 average 4/1 to 4/15 average

AUL 97 93
BCV 150 141
CCV 150 147
GFV 170 165
HH 76 74
SSR 105 102
VB 68 62

 

[bookwormde]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31 and 4/15 for each resort reduced contracts

The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Reduced

........3/31 4/15

AKV 110 109

AUL 97 93

BLT 144 146

BCV 138 137

BWV 118 118

BRV 100 ND

CCV 148 150

VGF 168 168

HH 74 74

OKW 95 94

POLY 143 144

SS 102 98

VB 62 62

 

[bookwormde]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31 and 4/15 for each resort pending contracts

The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Pending

.........3/31 4/15

AKV 109 108

AUL 96 97

BLT 137 141

BCV 140 138

BWV 118 121

BRV 98 98

CCV 147 147

VGF 164 163

HH 75 76

OKW 93 93

POLY 146 146

SS 101 101

VB 71 67

 

[Heather07438]

Hmm, not much difference yet. It will be an interesting comparison 4 and 8 months from now.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

What I find interesting looking at that distribution chart is December and February having the highest percentages.

If you want to be careful about when you can bank your points, you would likely not want to book during the fall with a December UY. With a February UY not during the holidays.

Am I interpreting this incorrectly? Sept/Oct seem perfect for me because I don't travel to Disney during the summer months.

Sept/Oct are ideal UYs for those of us who will never go in summer. I have an Oct UY. It is perfect for my travel habits but it's not easy to find resale "deals".

DVC now issues direct contracts in any UY (so instead of re-selling only ROFR'd Feb UY as Feb UY they can resell it as any UY) I honestly don't know how that all works, but I'm guessing the distribution charts we now have will be useless in 10 years. Who knows what the numbers will be. Crossing my fingers for more Oct UY contracts! lol

 

[sky2823]

We have September as well and it’s perfect.

We stay clear of the parks during the summer and prefer fall/winter traveling.

 

[sky2823]

The only drawback with september I can see is sometimes Labor Day straddles aug/sept if that is a date you are interested in traveling

 

[BRVDVC2020]

This is totally a newbie question...... I just made an offer on BRV with a December use year. For the life of me.... I cannot grasp why this is a good thing or a bad thing?? To me... it just means the points are deposited in December. I'm sure I'm missing something, but as long as I book 11 months prior to for BRV or 7 months prior to for the other resorts (assuming they have availability) then what would be the issue? Can anyone explain? Thank you.

 

[kbrazieltx]

We have a small AUG UY at CCV 75 Points and the price from when we went under Contract in December 2019 is actually close to same they are now. Due to a June trip for Current Owners we cannot close until then. I have been keeping an eye on prices but so far nothing is worth losing my deposit over.

 

[Turn the Page]

This is totally a newbie question...... I just made an offer on BRV with a December use year. For the life of me.... I cannot grasp why this is a good thing or a bad thing?? To me... it just means the points are deposited in December. I'm sure I'm missing something, but as long as I book 11 months prior to for BRV or 7 months prior to for the other resorts (assuming they have availability) then what would be the issue? Can anyone explain? Thank you.

I belive the issue is if you have a Dec UY and you book a trip in Nov and have to cancel you don't have time to reschedule or bank the points before they expire. That is why it is usually recommended to have a UY several months after you normally travel meaning if you normally travel in the spring or summer a Dec UY would be good whereas if you often travel in fall a Feb/March UY might be better. I think you have to bank points 4 months before they expire meaning a Dec UY needs to bank in August which means any trip after that that goes sideways you can no longer cancel and bank the points.

 

[BRVDVC2020]

I belive the issue is if you have a Dec UY and you book a trip in Nov and have to cancel you don't have time to reschedule or bank the points before they expire. That is why it is usually recommended to have a UY several months after you normally travel meaning if you normally travel in the spring or summer a Dec UY would be good whereas if you often travel in fall a Feb/March UY might be better. I think you have to bank points 4 months before they expire meaning a Dec UY needs to bank in August which means any trip after that that goes sideways you can no longer cancel and bank the points.

Ahhhhhh..... ok, now I get it!!! So just cancellation can be an issue. That makes sense! Thank you for the explanation!!!

 

[emilymad]

This is totally a newbie question...... I just made an offer on BRV with a December use year. For the life of me.... I cannot grasp why this is a good thing or a bad thing?? To me... it just means the points are deposited in December. I'm sure I'm missing something, but as long as I book 11 months prior to for BRV or 7 months prior to for the other resorts (assuming they have availability) then what would be the issue? Can anyone explain? Thank you.

Other than this year, we have found borrowing our points into the current year was an easier way to have a December UY make sense. For example, we are still in our December 2019 UY so if we wanted to travel this year we would borrow our 2020 points into 2020.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Other than this year, we have found borrowing our points into the current year was an easier way to have a December UY make sense. For example, we are still in our December 2019 UY so if we wanted to travel this year we would borrow our 2020 points into 2020.

Traveling in Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov with a Dec UY is risky due to no time to reschedule should you need to cancel. Technically banking / borrowing is even more risky because you cannot at any point bank those points. So, you'd NEED to reschedule in the same UY or rent them out.

Basically, the earlier in your UY you travel the better.

I have an Oct UY because we typically would not travel June-Sept.
Oct - May travel gives me the opportunity to bank my points should I need to cancel my plans. And gives me the easier to book summer months to rent them out should I miss my banking window or have my points in holding, etc.

 

[Matty B13]

DVC Resale Market just had 67 contracts pass ROFR this week, with no contracts ROFR'd.

 

[BRVDVC2020]

Traveling in Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov with a Dec UY is risky due to no time to reschedule should you need to cancel. Technically banking / borrowing is even more risky because you cannot at any point bank those points. So, you'd NEED to reschedule in the same UY or rent them out.

Basically, the earlier in your UY you travel the better.

I have an Oct UY because we typically would not travel June-Sept.
Oct - May travel gives me the opportunity to bank my points should I need to cancel my plans. And gives me the easier to book summer months to rent them out should I miss my banking window or have my points in holding, etc.

ahhh...makes total sense! Thank you so much.

 

[Vkothari916]

If I was unclear there were over 8000 VGF points. That’s 0.3% of the ~2.5m VGF points sold.

Interesting the data is so different at this other seller.

Where can you find the information on total number of points sold by resort? Was curious how many BLT points were sold total. Thanks.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

This is totally a newbie question...... I just made an offer on BRV with a December use year. For the life of me.... I cannot grasp why this is a good thing or a bad thing?? To me... it just means the points are deposited in December. I'm sure I'm missing something, but as long as I book 11 months prior to for BRV or 7 months prior to for the other resorts (assuming they have availability) then what would be the issue? Can anyone explain? Thank you.

This thread on Understanding UY's provides good information: https://www.disboards.com/threads/understanding-use-year-updated-march-10-2019.1942668/