I have a similar view on the timeline. However I am buying now. By late May I think there is a high probability that people start seeing light at the end of the tunnel (like China around two weeks ago when they slowly restarted their economy), and a small probability that it continues to escalate out of control.
If people see light at the end of the tunnel, with the government basically paying 2 months of payroll / rent / utilities for small businesses that employ 40% of the American workforce, and various grants / loans for big business that is contingent on retaining paychecks, I just don't think too many people will be in a panic to sell by then. Selling DVC is not an easy source of cash, it takes like 2 months for the entire process to finish, and that's assuming you sell immediately.
So, I am buying now, when there is still a lot of fear and uncertainty, and possible desperate seller. Again, the key is that maintenance fees has been paid, so there is no urgent cash spend required on DVC in the near future. So if you have immediate cash need, do you ask for a deferral or try to get a government backed low interest loan, or do you take a bath on DVC where the broker takes 6 - 10% and then you are getting crush on price? Or do you try to wait it out until later this year when you have to start paying 2021 maintenance fees?
I do think that if this continues until later this year, or if we fail to get the possible second wave under control in the fall, then we will start seeing fire sales. But if that were to happen, there are much bigger problems, and the government will step in again,