Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

Where can you find the information on total number of points sold by resort? Was curious how many BLT points were sold total. Thanks.

Disney never published the actual number but here is what is generally calculated 5,732,762

 

[bookwormde]

4/16 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 200% of average

 

[DisMomKY]

4/16 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 200% of average

I’m interested to see when prices are going to decrease. I had my eye on a BWV contracted that was posted yesterday and went back to look at it today and it’s already pending. I have an AKL 100 pt I’m selling that just passed ROFR (in like 2 weeks) at $118 per point and a SSR sitting at ROFR at $113 per point. I bought both of those in Jan/Feb and decided to sell to get one contract with one home resort and I’m selling both at higher than I gave for them, breaking even after the broker commission.

 

[bookwormde]

I’m interested to see when prices are going to decrease. I had my eye on a BWV contracted that was posted yesterday and went back to look at it today and it’s already pending. I have an AKL 100 pt I’m selling that just passed ROFR (in like 2 weeks) at $118 per point and a SSR sitting at ROFR at $113 per point. I bought both of those in Jan/Feb and decided to sell to get one contract with one home resort and I’m selling both at higher than I gave for them, breaking even after the broker commission.

selling prices have declined, but the drops have been limited, I expect at this point for the decreases over the next few month to go down 3 to 5% per month

 

[DisMomKY]

selling prices have declined, but the drops have been limited, I expect at this point for the decreases over the next few month to go down 3 to 5% per month

Thanks! I’m really watching BWV and BCV. We were discussing MK area resorts but my heart is in the boardwalk area and the pool at BC is amazing! My husband and I were talking about expiration dates too and our kids will be 27and 24 in 2041 so we think the 2042 expiration date will be fine

 

[Galun]

I have a similar view on the timeline. However I am buying now. By late May I think there is a high probability that people start seeing light at the end of the tunnel (like China around two weeks ago when they slowly restarted their economy), and a small probability that it continues to escalate out of control.

If people see light at the end of the tunnel, with the government basically paying 2 months of payroll / rent / utilities for small businesses that employ 40% of the American workforce, and various grants / loans for big business that is contingent on retaining paychecks, I just don't think too many people will be in a panic to sell by then. Selling DVC is not an easy source of cash, it takes like 2 months for the entire process to finish, and that's assuming you sell immediately.

So, I am buying now, when there is still a lot of fear and uncertainty, and possible desperate seller. Again, the key is that maintenance fees has been paid, so there is no urgent cash spend required on DVC in the near future. So if you have immediate cash need, do you ask for a deferral or try to get a government backed low interest loan, or do you take a bath on DVC where the broker takes 6 - 10% and then you are getting crush on price? Or do you try to wait it out until later this year when you have to start paying 2021 maintenance fees?

I do think that if this continues until later this year, or if we fail to get the possible second wave under control in the fall, then we will start seeing fire sales. But if that were to happen, there are much bigger problems, and the government will step in again,

Cautiously optimistic with the news late yesterday that patients seem to be responding to Gilead’s Remdesivir. We will know more by the end of this month when some of the initial trials are complete.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-remdesivir-trial/index.html
At this point the stock market is only down around 16% from all time high. It‘s not even a bear market anymore (defined as off 20% from high).

DVC is a luxury discretionary item. On the other hand it’s also an illiquid source of funds, and people don’t really need to sell until later this year when they look at 2021 maintenance fees. If the economy re-opens soon, I think we may have already seen the bottom - down perhaps 20-30% based on actual transactions in the ROFR thread, not asking price which seemed to be only down a little.

 

[0FF TO NEVERLAND]

I’ve recently been looking. I admit I know zero about DVC and really need to look into it, but I’ve seen the resale market for some at like 12,000. Being home so long I’ve literally thought maybe we should just buy it outright ( comes with 100 points per year ).
Esp if hotels for an upcoming trip are almost 4K for a week. Probably come out ahead in the end. We’ll see.

We’re just a couple with no kids. Might make sense if I only need to pay the annual dues each year.

Always wanted to just be a part of DVC since we got bi yearly but I’ll have to do the research on if it makes sense.

Then again with the economy and who knows about job security due to this pandemic, nows probably the wrong time.

 

[bookwormde]

4/17 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average

 

[E2ME2]

I’ve recently been looking. I admit I know zero about DVC and really need to look into it, but I’ve seen the resale market for some at like 12,000. Being home so long I’ve literally thought maybe we should just buy it outright ( comes with 100 points per year ).
Esp if hotels for an upcoming trip are almost 4K for a week. Probably come out ahead in the end. We’ll see.

We’re just a couple with no kids. Might make sense if I only need to pay the annual dues each year.

Always wanted to just be a part of DVC since we got bi yearly but I’ll have to do the research on if it makes sense.

Then again with the economy and who knows about job security due to this pandemic, nows probably the wrong time.

If you were leaning towards buying anyway, now could be a really good time to buy DVC.
But please do your due diligence, and check out the details before buying. There's a lot of good info. on these threads, and there's a lot of junk also.
Filter what you get here by comparing more globally. Check other threads, and search for independent reviews.
There are other 3rd party sources that track and publish statistics, and some come with opinions as well.
We bought Direct about 9 years ago, as empty-nesters, and we're in the middle of adding on again via resale.
Good Luck!
ET

 

[4ParkFamily]

Total newbie question, how far out do you have to bank your points before you lose them?

 

[Noodlez]

Total newbie question, how far out do you have to bank your points before you lose them?

More than 4 months before your use year, so January 31st for a June use year.

 

[4ParkFamily]

Thanks!

 

[bookwormde]

4/18 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average

 

[DisMomKY]

Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?

 

[chunks]

4/18 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average

Have you been compiling each day into a spreadsheet to establish a trend? Daily totals aren’t really that important...but the trend is

 

[bookwormde]

Have you been compiling each day into a spreadsheet to establish a trend? Daily totals aren’t really that important...but the trend is

I am loading them in a spreadsheet but have not the day they were found, just 15 day blocks of time

 

[sethschroeder]

Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?

They are a separate company so it would not impact it other than not having parks next to the timeshare.

The ones where it's a hotel and dvc split might see an increase in MFs since possibly the hotel side would shut down.

Also I am saying it simply there would be an impact but I think you were more asking if dvc would go under.

 

[CastAStone]

Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?

I don’t know the answer to your specific question, but no matter what any rando poster here tells you, that’s not going to happen. On their last quarterly report they had $94bn in equity they could borrow against, which is several years of operating expenses (at full cost!) for the closed divisions:

Just a touch more color: TOTAL theme parks and resorts expenses last year were $17bn. Total Studio expenses were $8bn. Even if they had the same operating costs while closed (and they don’t), they could be closed for several years before Disney ran out of assets to borrow against.

Their 10-K is on their website. It’s worth a read if for no other reason than to reassure yourself that there’s no need to panic.

 

[Beazle]

On January 14, I closed on a sale of 150 BCV points at 145 pp
On April 15, I closed on the sale of 400 BCV points at 132 pp.

High points sales usually attract a discount although 132 pp was a very good deal.

 

[striker1064]

Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?

There's nothing in the DVC contracts guaranteeing the existence of a theme park. DVC continues with or without WDW/DL.