Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[0FF TO NEVERLAND]

Quick DVC question. Don't know where to post it

If I only want to go on vacation to Disney for a week once every 2 years, 100 point per year contract would be enough correct? As in I can always bank the one year into the next, so essentially I would have 200 points for my vacation every 2 years?

I have so much time on my hands that the research gene is flowing

 

[CarolynFH]

Quick DVC question. Don't know where to post it

If I only want to go on vacation to Disney for a week once every 2 years, 100 point per year contract would be enough correct? As in I can always bank the one year into the next, so essentially I would have 200 points for my vacation every 2 years?

I have so much time on my hands that the research gene is flowing

Yes, you would have 200 points every 2 years. Whether that would be enough for a week depends on resort, room size, view/location (e.g., Standard view vs. Pool/Garden view at BWV), and dates.

 

[wallawallakids]

Quick DVC question. Don't know where to post it

If I only want to go on vacation to Disney for a week once every 2 years, 100 point per year contract would be enough correct? As in I can always bank the one year into the next, so essentially I would have 200 points for my vacation every 2 years?

I have so much time on my hands that the research gene is flowing

Depending on the resort, room type and time of year, possibly... yes

 

[bookwormde]

4/19 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average

 

[E2ME2]

4/19 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average

Have you analyzed the average fluctuation in list prices by resort ?
Have the prices dropped significantly yet ?
ET

 

[bookwormde]

Have you analyzed the average fluctuation in list prices by resort ?
Have the prices dropped significantly yet ?
ET

Just in 15 day tranches that I have posted. Yes listing prices have dropped, but actual sale prices appear to have dropped more if you look at a grouping of lowest sale prices for most resorts

 

[CastAStone]

Just in 15 day tranches that I have posted. Yes listing prices have dropped, but actual sale prices appear to have dropped more if you look at a grouping of lowest sale prices for most resorts

This squares with what I’ve noticed as I’ve been tracking listings daily for about 2 weeks. The contracts selling tend to be ones that were set at or cut to a very low price, excluding small point contracts, which seem to be moving fine at their usual premiums. But that doesn’t seem to be impacting initial listing prices. Lots of optimism among sellers.

 

[Brian Noble]

Lots of optimism among sellers.

Optimism or denial, depending on one's perspective.

 

[DisMomKY]

Optimism or denial, depending on one's perspective.

I think it’s definitely optimism I just was counter offered 157 on 110 points at VGF with no 2020 points. It’s been listed since like October. The seller doesn’t want to budge much which is fine, but I’ve seen it 100-120 point contracts without 2020 points listed for 155ish before all this COVID stuff. A lot of buyers will be looking for a deal I think

 

[E2ME2]

Just in 15 day tranches that I have posted. Yes listing prices have dropped, but actual sale prices appear to have dropped more if you look at a grouping of lowest sale prices for most resorts

Where can you find data on the actual sales price vs the listed price?

 

[bookwormde]

Where can you find data on the actual sales price vs the listed price?

It is by month but as best I can tell these are actual sales

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-march-2020/
I am looking at pending sales that pop up and comparing them to see if there was a listing that matches.

 

[Cyberc1978]

I just heard from one of the major brokers that for the last two weeks they have sold for more than $3 million which is way more than same time last year.

Dont know if this is really true but if it is true maybe pricing is not moving as much as people was hoping for?

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

I just heard from one of the major brokers that for the last two weeks they have sold for more than $3 million which is way more than same time last year.

Dont know if this is really true but if it is true maybe pricing is not moving as much as people was hoping for?

VOLUME!!!! VOLUME!!!! VOLUME!!!!

 

[OSUZorba]

Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?

Even if Disney couldn't weather the storm, they would go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, where they could shed debt, contracts and leases. The unsecured creditors would then either vote on selling the company to the highest bidder, breaking up the company, and keeping the company for themselves. The shareholders would most likely be completely wiped out.

In the completely crazy world where they couldn't make it out of chapter 11 (never going to happen) they would go into chapter 7 were all the assets would be broken off and sold at auction.

Either way, the parks would still be there and would be reopened by someone.

The bigger risk is that in 20-30 years the parks aren't kept up or the general public loses interest and the parks slowly decline until they are ultimately closed, completely unrelated to current events. I also don't see this happening, but it is far more likely than a Disney Chapter 7 in the next couple of years.

 

[bookwormde]

4/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 90% of average

 

[glamdring269]

There's nothing in the DVC contracts guaranteeing the existence of a theme park. DVC continues with or without WDW/DL.

I'm kind of laughing about this but can you imagine this actually playing out? I'm trying to think of one reason at all to go to those resorts if there is no park. I can't think of a single one. That would be an epic disaster (taken in perspective of course).

 

[glamdring269]

Wrong thread! Seems to be my wrong thread day.

 

[wallawallakids]

I'm kind of laughing about this but can you imagine this actually playing out? I'm trying to think of one reason at all to go to those resorts if there is no park. I can't think of a single one. That would be an epic disaster (taken in perspective of course).

Well, HH, Aulani, and VB would still be great! Lol

 

[striker1064]

I'm kind of laughing about this but can you imagine this actually playing out? I'm trying to think of one reason at all to go to those resorts if there is no park. I can't think of a single one. That would be an epic disaster (taken in perspective of course).

I totally get it, but it's a stark reminder that this is a timeshare, just like any other that has nothing in particular driving the location. As mentioned above, there are even Disney timeshares not right next to a theme park.

 

[E2ME2]

I'm kind of laughing about this but can you imagine this actually playing out? I'm trying to think of one reason at all to go to those resorts if there is no park. I can't think of a single one. That would be an epic disaster (taken in perspective of course).

We will still go if resorts are open and theme parks are closed.
Maybe we're the exception to the DVC rule, but being in Florida in the winter was our primary reason for DVC.
Theme Parks, free parking, and transportation all came as a bonus.
If SSR is open in January 2021 we will be there!
ET