Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[bookwormde]

If I was unclear there were over 8000 VGF points. That’s 0.3% of the ~2.5m VGF points sold.

Interesting the data is so different at this other seller.

Thanks for the clarification, the numbers make sense to me now

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I hear you - but VGF is smaller and there are many, many resale listings for that right now.

As mentioned there's a big difference in how long those 2 resorts have been around. Most owners at BRV would have paid off any loans they may have had whereas there likely are some that are still financed with VGF and may be tired of the payments. Also when BRV was sold they had higher minimums to buy in so less total members there. I have a multi site POS from 2016 that has a chart indicating 7686 members at BRV and 10141 at VGF even though VGF is smaller. Also from watching the resale market BRV just has never had a lot for sale at a time even when it's pricing was identical to BCV and BRV a decade ago. Apparently a loyal bunch of owners!

 

[OSUZorba]

The four most recent resorts have the highest percent of points for sale. I imagine that’s buyers remorse. BRV has been open for like 20 years, so that’s a lot less of an issue.

It might also be that people who bought when they were young families 20 years ago are more secure financially than young families buying in the last few years. Most because the first set has had 20 more years to develop resources and are likely empty nesters.

 

[bookwormde]

4/11 update

new resale contracts were less than 50% of usual

 

[DisMomKY]

4/11 update

new resales were less than 50% f usual

I have had 2 contracts I’m selling go under contract at asking price in 3 days or less last Sunday and then yesterday

 

[bookwormde]

I have had 2 contracts I’m selling go under contract at asking price in 3 days or less last Sunday and then yesterday

Yes sales are amazingly brisk given the circumstances if the contract is offered at a competitive price.
I am guessing that direct sales shut down is impacting this at a level

 

[DisMomKY]

Yes sales are amazingly brisk given the circumstances if the contract is offered at a competitive price.
I am guessing that direct sales shut down is impacting this at a level

I agree. We have one AKL at ROFR at 118 pp and then our SSR we are signing the offer now at 110 pp but it has some banked points

 

[lmhall2000]

We were in the market to buy last December, but decided to relocate- so waited- CV has cancelled our relo- so, we are looking at properties again- if you had 25-30k and wanted a property with 2 BR availability- is there one I should keep my eye on? Looking for 125-200 points...

 

[Aussie RJ]

We were in the market to buy last December, but decided to relocate- so waited- CV has cancelled our relo- so, we are looking at properties again- if you had 25-30k and wanted a property with 2 BR availability- is there one I should keep my eye on? Looking for 125-200 points...

BLT. Most cost effective, within one of the best locations. The 2 bedrooms are very nice also.

 

[bookwormde]

4/12 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 25% of average

seeing some larger VB contracts both new and pending in the high 50s even though newly listed VB contracts have been limited

 

[lovethesun12]

4/12 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 25% of average

seeing some larger VB contracts both new and pending in the high 50s even though newly listed VB contracts have been limited

I want to make sure I'm reading your posts correctly - you mean the number of new contracts posted are 25% less than the new ones that would normally be posted?

 

[bookwormde]

I want to make sure I'm reading your posts correctly - you mean the number of new contracts posted are 25% less than the new ones that would normally be posted?

yes

 

[sethschroeder]

I would be interested in numbers on how many people sell a contract to buy a new one both before and after the latest rounds of restrictions.

Those who wanted to swap out a older resale contract for RIV likely already did it and now with DVC Direct closed you have people not selling for possibly other sold out resorts as well?

Then on top of all of this obviously the current situation probably has people thinking they will get less for their contract than waiting out the pandemic.

 

[glamdring269]

I just think it's too early to see any impact. Government intervention has helped keep a lot of folks afloat for now and are constantly saying we will be back open for business in the next couple of weeks. There is 0 reason to panic for most as of today.

That changes as the "return to normal" goal posts continue to move further out, especially if government assistance wanes.

 

[MonkeyKnifeFight]

I just think it's too early to see any impact. Government intervention has helped keep a lot of folks afloat for now and are constantly saying we will be back open for business in the next couple of weeks. There is 0 reason to panic for most as of today.

That changes as the "return to normal" goal posts continue to move further out, especially if government assistance wanes.

I agree as far as the economy goes. But bookings are going to be hard in 2021 and 2022 due to all the bankings. I feel like the best play is to wait on buying resale for around 6 months and see where everything is at. A stripped contract for the cheapest price possible is better than a loaded contract right now IMO.

 

[Sandisw]

I would be interested in numbers on how many people sell a contract to buy a new one both before and after the latest rounds of restrictions.

Those who wanted to swap out a older resale contract for RIV likely already did it and now with DVC Direct closed you have people not selling for possibly other sold out resorts as well?

Then on top of all of this obviously the current situation probably has people thinking they will get less for their contract than waiting out the pandemic.

I am selling BWV and will be replacing it with BLT. It’s a delayed closing until after my June trip. I did put it on the market before this started, but I ended up with $4.50 less per point than I sold my other BWV in October,...although I still made a great profit as I bought for $53.

My hope is that by summer, BLT will have come down enough to close the gap between the two. Although, I may only replace it with 100 points vs. the 150 I sold,

 

[glamdring269]

I agree as far as the economy goes. But bookings are going to be hard in 2021 and 2022 due to all the bankings. I feel like the best play is to wait on buying resale for around 6 months and see where everything is at. A stripped contract for the cheapest price possible is better than a loaded contract right now IMO.

You may be right in terms of grabbing a stripped contract now. We're planning to head back in October 2021 and will put that reservation in the minute the window opens. No intention of returning until 2023 so if I can get a steal on a stripped contract with that would be perfect.

 

[poofyo101]

Issue is stripped contracts sometimes harder to make through ROFR due to the price point.

 

[bookwormde]

Issue is stripped contracts sometimes harder to make through ROFR due to the price point.

That can be true though it is important t remember that DVD has to refill those points from other contract that it owns or has owned that at the same resort and UY

DVD can not (legally) just create new points. I do suspect that DVD does some point year sliding.

 

[bookwormde]

4/13 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average