Unbalanced Resort Ressies

[Snookies]

... I think you're confusing people's paranoid desire to book day-by-day at 11 months with a true NEED to do so. Just because you read reports of a few people calling day-by-day for January (or April, or July) doesn't mean that people who wait until 10 months out are being told there is nothing available...

...Regardless of what happens there, I don't see any great movement toward manic 11-month bookings other than the oft-cited examples (early-December, Food & Wine fest time). That means there WILL continue to be rooms available at 7 months and those who are most prepared to take advantage of the openings will benefit.

As discussed, there is probably a true need now to book day-by-day at 11 months for only certain resorts or point categories at specific times of the year. The perception of the need to book day-by-day at 11 months for other resorts at other times may be driven, in part, by the general discussions of hard-to-get reservations, specific waitlist problems, and a heightened sense of paranoid or neurotic behavior that WDW travel seems to engender. The analogy that came to mind while reading this thread is that of booking ADRs 190 days in advance. Other analogies that may be appropriate are the quest for the perfect room view or the perfect parade viewing spot. The relevance of this with respect to a DVC reservation discussion is a question of whether DVC's sales success in California and/or the possible addition of other options in California and/or Hawaii will significantly change the nature and behavior of membership, thus changing either the perception of booking needs or actual booking behavior. My opinion is that an influx of West Coast members could at least partially affect the factors discussed in this thread at the margin, but that is only my opinion. BTW, my view of the waitlist is the same as yours.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

As discussed, there is probably a true need now to book day-by-day at 11 months for only certain resorts or point categories at specific times of the year. The perception of the need to book day-by-day at 11 months for other resorts at other times may be driven, in part, by the general discussions of hard-to-get reservations, specific waitlist problems, and a heightened sense of paranoid or neurotic behavior that WDW travel seems to engender. The analogy that came to mind while reading this thread is that of booking ADRs 190 days in advance. Other analogies that may be appropriate are the quest for the perfect room view or the perfect parade viewing spot. The relevance of this with respect to a DVC reservation discussion is a question of whether DVC's sales success in California and/or the possible addition of other options in California and/or Hawaii will significantly change the nature and behavior of membership, thus changing either the perception of booking needs or actual booking behavior. My opinion is that an influx of West Coast members could at least partially affect the factors discussed in this thread at the margin, but that is only my opinion. BTW, my view of the waitlist is the same as yours.

How did the day-by-day 11mos. booking evolve? Was this always in place from the very first DVC, or a manifestation of hard to get ressies?

 

[jade1]

Regardless of what happens there, I don't see any great movement toward manic 11-month bookings other than the oft-cited examples (early-December, Food & Wine fest time). That means there WILL continue to be rooms available at 7 months and those who are most prepared to take advantage of the openings will benefit.

Keep thinking that way, as long it stays 11/7 as you recommend we can grab VWL and BCV when we want with an occasional BW View thrown in.

 

[Dean]

Adding new resorts like AKV (or the Contemporary, or Disneyland, or Hawaii) has a two-fold impact on the 7-month windows:

1. Owners at BWV or BCV could start booking outside of their Home in greater numbers. I think it's a given that this will occur...it's just a question of how great the numbers might be.

2. Non-owners at BWV or BCV will have other destinations to choose from, which will lower demand for those two resorts resorts at 7 months.

Of course, you're also adding new owners to the program who will have the opportunity to book BCV or BWV as non-Home resorts. What remains to be seen is whether demand from new owners will be greater than the reductions cited above.

Correct to a it degree. Actually any member trading out from the current high demand resorts to animal kingdom villas will likely reserve during their home resort window and then only give that up if they get the other high demand resort. This is the way works now. Thus it's really not a net gain of availability at the seven-month window. In addition to that, it's really only the units that make it to the seven-month window, or open up after that, that come into to play. Thus we're talking probably four to five hundred units to balance out to the changes most Saratoga Springs.

Regardless of what happens there, I don't see any great movement toward manic 11-month bookings other than the oft-cited examples (early-December, Food & Wine fest time). That means there WILL continue to be rooms available at 7 months and those who are most prepared to take advantage of the openings will benefit.

Actually I'd say that there are currently at least 9 to 12 weeks where one really currently needs to reserve at around 11 months out to ensure success. And for some unit types at Walt Disney World it's almost year around. You must be seeing differ information as I think we've seen more and more reports of people not able to get things at times of they were previously able to get.

DVC is unique in the time share world from what I can see. I cannot think of a single system where one has any chance of getting a high demand option after the initial reservation period opens. If you think about it, it's truly amazing that a sold out resort isn't essentially booked up at or just after the reservation window opens.

 

[Dean]

How did the day-by-day 11mos. booking evolve? Was this always in place from the very first DVC, or a manifestation of hard to get ressies?

It was there in the beginning. I suspect more and more people are using it than were early on.

As discussed, there is probably a true need now to book day-by-day at 11 months for only certain resorts or point categories at specific times of the year. The perception of the need to book day-by-day at 11 months for other resorts at other times may be driven, in part, by the general discussions of hard-to-get reservations, specific waitlist problems, and a heightened sense of paranoid or neurotic behavior that WDW travel seems to engender. The analogy that came to mind while reading this thread is that of booking ADRs 190 days in advance. Other analogies that may be appropriate are the quest for the perfect room view or the perfect parade viewing spot. The relevance of this with respect to a DVC reservation discussion is a question of whether DVC's sales success in California and/or the possible addition of other options in California and/or Hawaii will significantly change the nature and behavior of membership, thus changing either the perception of booking needs or actual booking behavior. My opinion is that an influx of West Coast members could at least partially affect the factors discussed in this thread at the margin, but that is only my opinion. BTW, my view of the waitlist is the same as yours.

There's no doubt that there are many factors in this issue. I'm sure part of it is driven by discussion on this board but it's not just paranoia. There many reports of people not able to get things they wanted and in many cases, things they were able to get previously. Thus as one gets burned they plan more in advance and reserve earlier. As others read that information they too will tend to do the same.

Still those that plan ahead and know how to work the system will continue to be successful much of the time. Still I can't think of a single reason to wait past 11-month window if I know when I want to go. There's simply no reason that take the chance. If I'm not sure when I want to go or what unit type I need, I would tend to reserve multiples and then cancel the ones I don't need.

 

[OneMoreTry]

It'll take far more than one destination resorts to reestablish the balance. It is not the total number of rooms but the rooms that are available seven months out that is the issue. Given that criteria, it would probably take four or five destination resorts in the size range of AKV to the approximate that balance.

How many rooms in AKV? I thought it was going to be as big as BCV and BWV together. Is that not correct?

I don't think

(BCV+BWV)/(OKW+HH+VB)

is any larger than

AKV/SSR.

Is it?

If my assumption above is correct (plus the assumption that AKV will draw as much resort-crossing as BCV and BWV), then the ratio AT 7 MONTHS is restored to pre AKV/SSR levels.

Then (AKV+CRV)/SSR will even improve that.

 

[Dean]

How many rooms in AKV? I thought it was going to be as big as BCV and BWV together. Is that not correct?

I don't think

(BCV+BWV)/(OKW+HH+VB)

is any larger than

AKV/SSR.

Is it?

If my assumption above is correct (plus the assumption that AKV will draw as much resort-crossing as BCV and BWV), then the ratio AT 7 MONTHS is restored to pre AKV/SSR levels.

Then (AKV+CRV)/SSR will even improve that.

The issue isn't how many rooms but how many will make it to the seven-month window. In that respect it will likely be similar to boardwalk. Those should have a fraction of the rooms and points that make it to the seven-month window compared to Saratoga Springs, Old key West, Vero Beach and Hilton Head. And when I say a fraction, I'm suggesting around 5 percent or less.

 

[Snookies]

...Still I can't think of a single reason to wait past 11-month window if I know when I want to go. There's simply no reason that take the chance. If I'm not sure when I want to go or what unit type I need, I would tend to reserve multiples and then cancel the ones I don't need.

Agreed. Doing so preserves flexibility, enhancing value.

 

[tjkraz]

Correct to a it degree. Actually any member trading out from the current high demand resorts to animal kingdom villas will likely reserve during their home resort window and then only give that up if they get the other high demand resort. This is the way works now.

For some people, yes. Others won't plan that far in advance. Certain times of the year will remain in a state where availability far exceeds immediate demand (January, February, late-April, May, August, September) among owners at even the more popular resorts.

What I personally see happening is that more and more people are buying BCV and BWV points for the very periods we're talking about--October thru December. Eventually something's gotta give. If 50% of the owners expect to consistently use their points during 25% of the year, there are going to be a lot of unhappy owners (barring any point reallocation, of course.)

But that likelihood is unrelated to changes in demand elsewhere on the calendar. Sure, some people who are burned by not getting a room in December may call at 11 months for a February reservation, but that has no bearing on overall demand for rooms in February.

Actually I'd say that there are currently at least 9 to 12 weeks where one really currently needs to reserve at around 11 months out to ensure success. And for some unit types at Walt Disney World it's almost year around. You must be seeing differ information as I think we've seen more and more reports of people not able to get things at times of they were previously able to get.

I'll buy into the low end of your estimate--around 9 weeks per year. That's roughly the same periods we've been talking about (F&W, early-Dec) with an acknowledgment that holiday periods can also be more difficult (MLK week, President's Day).

But that's still only about 15% of the year--a far cry from greater than 50%. The logic behind high demand for those weeks cannot be easily applied to other weeks. The WDW resorts don't see the huge bumps in summer demand that other timeshares experience. 16 years into the game, overwhelming demand for the 3rd week of April or the 4th week of July or the 2nd week of August isn't going to suddenly materialize.

Regarding the unit types that are hard to book, if you keep slicing things down certainly there are limitations. I never said you could consistently BWV SV room for the week following President's Day 7 months. But getting a PV room during the last week of February is no problem.

DVC is unique in the time share world from what I can see. I cannot think of a single system where one has any chance of getting a high demand option after the initial reservation period opens. If you think about it, it's truly amazing that a sold out resort isn't essentially booked up at or just after the reservation window opens.

Then it seems illogical to continue trying to apply patterns from other timeshare systems to DVC.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

What I personally see happening is that more and more people are buying BCV and BWV points for the very periods we're talking about--October thru December. Eventually something's gotta give. If 50% of the owners expect to consistently use their points during 25% of the year, there are going to be a lot of unhappy owners (barring any point reallocation, of course.)


This was my point 4 pages ago.....glad to see you finally are seeing what I've been concerned about. I can only see this continuing to grow if more events start to happen at Epcot or MGM.

 

[OneMoreTry]

The issue isn't how many rooms but how many will make it to the seven-month window. In that respect it will likely be similar to boardwalk. Those should have a fraction of the rooms and points that make it to the seven-month window compared to Saratoga Springs, Old key West, Vero Beach and Hilton Head. And when I say a fraction, I'm suggesting around 5 percent or less.

As I said, I'm making the assumption that AKV owners will cross over to other resorts just as much as BWV and BCV owners do. That would mean the fraction of rooms available at 7 months at AKV would be equivalent to the fraction available at BWV/BCV. (I realize that may not be the case in the first couple of years, but ultimately I think it will.)

It follows from that assumption that number of overall rooms will be a predictor of rooms available at 7 months, which would then be proportional.

So the end result will be (each of the variables representing rooms available at 7 months, not total number):
AKV+BWV+BCV (+?CRV) the numerator taking all the heat / OKW+SSR+HH+VB all trying to get into the numerator resorts.

My contention is that that fraction wil be roughtly the same as (or larger than):
BWV+BCV / OKW+HH+VB.

 

[tjkraz]

This was my point 4 pages ago.....glad to see you finally are seeing what I've been concerned about.

I don't see you posting anything to that effect.

I'm talking exclusively about owners at BWV and BCV. If you have more and more people buying BWV and BCV specifically to for the advantage in booking some weeks in October, November and December, eventually you'll have far more BWV/BCV owners than there is availability during those months. Most other parts of the year will continue to be obtainable at 7 months because demand just isn't there.

Your concern all along is that those unwelcome SSR and OKW owners are taking up space at YOUR resort: "What would happen if people purchase at the new resorts only to reserve at the smaller or more popular resorts?"

I can only see this continuing to grow if more events start to happen at Epcot or MGM.

I doubt that. There are already plenty of events at both parks which don't impact availability at those resorts on any similar scale:

Star Wars Weekends
Super Soap Weekend
ESPN Weekend
Flower and Garden Festival

The Food and Wine Fest is a unique animal, and even its own popularity will vary as time goes on.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

As I said, I'm making the assumption that AKV owners will cross over to other resorts just as much as BWV and BCV owners do. That would mean the fraction of rooms available at 7 months at AKV would be equivalent to the fraction available at BWV/BCV. (I realize that may not be the case in the first couple of years, but ultimately I think it will.)

It follows from that assumption that number of overall rooms will be a predictor of rooms available at 7 months, which would then be proportional.

So the end result will be (each of the variables representing rooms available at 7 months, not total number):
AKV+BWV+BCV (+?CRV) the numerator taking all the heat / OKW+SSR+HH+VB all trying to get into the numerator resorts.

My contention is that that fraction wil be roughtly the same as (or larger than):
BWV+BCV / OKW+HH+VB.

I'm a little lost here....( Math was never my favorite subject! ) Can you explain this in more English major terms?

 

[salmoneous]

If you have more and more people buying BWV and BCV specifically to for the advantage in booking some weeks in October, November and December, eventually you'll have far more BWV/BCV owners than there is availability during those months.

Although this has the potential to be a real problem, I don't think we are anywhere close to the situation. Two things are working against you:

The concept of "Buy BWL/BCV only if you want to stay during Oct-Dec" is a recent concept that only applies to the current resale market (if at all). The vast majority of BWV/BCV bought in new. Tens of thousands of people bought in when these were the resort to buy if you wanted DVC. Now, a handful of contract are bought on the resale market each week. Even if everybody buying resale is doing so just to stay Oct-Dec, that still only represents a drop in the bucket.

But even then, I don't think people are only buying resale at these resorts if they want to stay Oct-Dec. Both resorts have some small room classes that you need to be an owner if you want to be sure of getting a room no matter what time of year you intend to visit. Want to stay in a SV room at BWV? Better be an owner. Want a 2Q 2BR at BCV, be an owner.

 

[OneMoreTry]

I'm a little lost here....( Math was never my favorite subject! ) Can you explain this in more English major terms?

I'm just saying that when AKV is totally open it will take the resort-switching heat off of BCV and BWV, making it easier to book them at 7 months. I think it will likely restore the balance of 7-month supply and demand at hotel resorts to the level it was at before SSR and AKV existed.

 

[lenshanem]

Well, I learned my lesson not too long ago. If you don't take advantage of the 7 month window, especially during busy times like F & W you will end up at SSR.

DH dragged his feet about us doing Race for the Taste and we ended up being shut out of our BCV.

Basically, you have to plan far out in advance or SSR will be your only option.

Last two trips we've taken whenever we started speaking to anyone they always said they owned at SSR, but stayed elsewhere. It is quite obvious to me SSR has put a huge strain on the system. There are A LOT of SSR owners, the resort is just too huge.

I'm so glad AKV will be a decent size to take some of the pressure off. As much as I love AKL, I will want CRV over it simply due to availability. We own at BCV and VWL and my theory now is it is better to own at the smaller resorts. It seems to hold true.

 

[tjkraz]

Although this has the potential to be a real problem, I don't think we are anywhere close to the situation.

I think we're closer than you realize.

December already IS a problem. When people are complaining in February that they can't get a room for December, something is broken. There already is far more demand for December--particularly early December--than rooms available. I'm not talking about others trying to get in at 7 months--I'm talking about those who can't get rooms at their Home 8 or 9 months out.

Building more resorts won't fix that situation, but altering the point charts would--something that DVC should be seriously considering.

Food and Wine fest time isn't such a big deal right now, mostly because it's spread over so many weeks. But the fact remains that the points are very low for most of F&W and owner demand is beginning to exceed supply.

I'm not trying to imply that some ridiculously high number of owners are trying to vacation during those periods. We're not talking about 80 or 90%. But if those high demand weeks represent 15% of the calendar and owners wish to use 25% of all points for those dates, a problem exists. And as long as people continue to buy via resale--granted not in overwhelming numbers--and add to the demand for these same periods, the situation will only worsen.

I also didn't mean to imply that this is a crisis which would soon rock the entire program. However I do think it has greater likelihood of being an issue than the suggestion that owners will be filling their Home via day-by-day reservations for more than 6 months / 26 weeks out of the year.

 

[spiceycat]

DVC had a chance to change Thanksgiving a few years ago and DID NOT!!!

it is now in WDW regular season, but at DVC it is in adventure (value) season.

the change in points was only to OKW - it took from adventure & choice season and gave to Magic Season & premier season - generally took from the weekdays and gave to weekends.

can give you the actually figures if you want them.

I don't think DVC will ever change the points charts again.

they didn't do for Thankgsiving and so I can't see them doing it ever.

demand and supply has always been the way that DVC was intended to work.
don't see that changing at all. It works much to well for DVC.

if you want to vacation in Dec then you better be called in Jan. If you don't get what you want then go on a waitlist.

or do what I did - got a few points at both BWV and VWL for those times when I want Epcot/Studio or MK.

when I want everything then OKW is still pretty wonderful. definitely like the lower point cost - which you have left out.

as far as dead times - well you are only taking about 2 months Sept and Jan.

Jan has more stuff in it everytime I look

at Sept - there is now the start of the food & wine festavial, plus the start of MNSSHP - plus for the WDW resort guest there is free dinning. Disney I am sure will kept rolling back F & W festavial. Do you think that it will get boring?

the middle of feb, march, most of April is spring break - do you really think that DVC cares if member or paying guests get these weeks. believe me they will be gone one way or the next.

same with June, July or August - summer months.

the more DVC resorts that are build the better for DVC members. The more options you will get. The more DVC can expand, the most benefits to DVC members.

or you sure you aren't Rich - he use to claims that every new DVC resort was the downfall of DVC. didn't happen - won't happen now.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I think this thread should get some kind of award for having the most words to read in almost every reply! There have been some great opinions, strategies, and possible resolutions. Thanks to all who have taken their time to comment!!

 

[lenshanem]

I don't know if anyone has thought about this, but if BCV stays booked all the time it is gonna take a much harder hit on wear and tear than those resorts that don't fully book up. I wonder if our maintenance dues at BCV will reflect this eventually. Kinda stinks.