What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[MillauFr]

Never sailing again?? Come on!

Agreed. The minute people get a screaming good deal they be back in droves and this whole thing will be a distant memory.

 

[gotomu212]

I think that once we get testing ramped up (now when this would be, I don't know) and you get past peak outbreak, you could establish quarantine centers (like China did) where those with symptoms and those exposed (via contact tracing) would have to serve a 14-day quarantine. However, this would only work if you could test everyone...

Can I ask (and sincerely not snarky just curious) I’ve heard a lot of people talk about the peak coming, but since this is a novel bug all the experts say 70% of us will get it. So, say in the US that’s 230 million of us and majority are mild, and the current case count (which we know if way underreporting) is only at 55k. Isn’t the peak far away still if 224million are still expected to contract it? I’m confused about the contradictory messages.

 

[Gentry2004]

I've read estimates for the peak anywhere from mid May to July. And the peaks will vary depending on your specific location in the US. But yes I think the peak is still relatively far away and I don't think normal travel will resume any time this summer. My opinion only.

 

[Minniesgal]

Early 2021

 

[Minniesgal]

Can I ask (and sincerely not snarky just curious) I’ve heard a lot of people talk about the peak coming, but since this is a novel bug all the experts say 70% of us will get it. So, say in the US that’s 230 million of us and majority are mild, and the current case count (which we know if way underreporting) is only at 55k. Isn’t the peak far away still if 224million are still expected to contract it? I’m confused about the contradictory messages.

The growth curve is exponential

 

[FigmentSpark]

Can I ask (and sincerely not snarky just curious) I’ve heard a lot of people talk about the peak coming, but since this is a novel bug all the experts say 70% of us will get it. So, say in the US that’s 230 million of us and majority are mild, and the current case count (which we know if way underreporting) is only at 55k. Isn’t the peak far away still if 224million are still expected to contract it? I’m confused about the contradictory messages.

That's the problem with this bug... it is far more contagious than most other things. I believe it's that every person can pass it to at least 3, and for a longer period than, say the flu. So it ramps up quickly.

Here's an article that might help:

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...cing-infections-spread-explainer-video-2020-3

 

[4 mickey]

I don’t expect it anytime soon
with that virus being world spread and being when you cruise you are with people from all over the world
also givin that a few cruises ( non Disney granted ) where isolated and quarantined
i don’t think any cruise line in his mind would try and cruise anytime soon
because now it’s a fact that all person in the world know why would dcl cruise too early and take the chance of a law suit for being too negligent
it won’t be safe anytime soon in my opinion

 

[MillauFr]

That's the problem with this bug... it is far more contagious than most other things. I believe it's that every person can pass it to at least 3, and for a longer period than, say the flu. So it ramps up quickly.

Here's an article that might help:

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...cing-infections-spread-explainer-video-2020-3

If it is so contagious aren't we are going to have to accept that everyone is going to be exposed sooner or later?

 

[randumb0]

I think that once we get testing ramped up (now when this would be, I don't know) and you get past peak outbreak, you could establish quarantine centers (like China did) where those with symptoms and those exposed (via contact tracing) would have to serve a 14-day quarantine. However, this would only work if you could test everyone...

How would that alleviate the concerns of cruise port countries?

 

[MillauFr]

The growth curve is exponential

Agreed, which means everyone will be exposed to it by the end of April

 

[FigmentSpark]

If it is so contagious aren't we are going to have to accept that everyone is going to be exposed sooner or later?

Yes, but the desire is to spread out the contagion. If the healthcare systems can handle the load, more people will survive. If it takes long enough for people to get it, then a course of treatment and eventually a vaccine can be found. If nothing is done, the healthcare systems will be overwhelmed and people will die needlessly, both with the disease and those with other conditions who won't be able to get treatments.

Someone asked about the economy, but if you lost a huge segment of your population, that also affects the economy.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

While many cases are mild, 5%+ of cases require hospitalization of 1-4 weeks, and 1-2% require significant resources within that hospitalization, such as respirators and life support. Despite what some say about "most vulnerable" populations, the Italy numbers and stats need to be handled gingerly due to how they were prioritizing resources. If they had to choose between a 60 year old and a 6 year old for a respirator, the 6 year old got it. This may have skewed mortality rates. The numbers from China are also unreliable - heck, the Chinese government right now are saying they don't trust the numbers from the provinces being currently reported.

To have the best chance of low mortality, we need to be able to support those who do fall ill with high standards of care. And that means spacing it out as best we can.

 

[gotomu212]

The growth curve is exponential

That's the problem with this bug... it is far more contagious than most other things. I believe it's that every person can pass it to at least 3, and for a longer period than, say the flu. So it ramps up quickly.

Here's an article that might help:

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...cing-infections-spread-explainer-video-2020-3

Thanks for the info, and absolutely it is exponential but if it doubles every 6 days which is my understanding from medical experts (I know now it’s 3 now but that seems like to very early days and is a testing function) and I don’t think we’re going from 1.6 million to 3.2 million in 3 days or later adding 102 million cases in 6 days..but assuming it was doubling every 6 with no bend, it’s still 74 days to get to 230 million which is 2.5 months and not weeks. Add in there the long incubation period and even longer recovery period.

I just think even with exponential growth, no one is expecting to infect 200 million in a month in just the US. Which would mean were very far from the peak still. And if we are a month from the peak it will absolutely not be anything like normal for months because we’d have 20 million in hospital and all of us will be attending funerals for awhile.

(Not trying to panic just laying out that it’s very contradictory to say the peak is a matter of weeks away and then everyone is back out- either peak is further or things are going to be worse than anyone is imagining)

 

[LeiaOfAlderaan]

If it is so contagious aren't we are going to have to accept that everyone is going to be exposed sooner or later?

This is the point of sheltering in place and flattening the curve. Because there are no cures or a vaccine, we want the number of people who get it to slow down now. Yes, eventually a lot of people will be exposed but hopefully we can slow it enough that hospitals won’t become overwhelmed and at some point a vaccine will slow it even further. Because we are barely testing in this country (other than NY) all we can do is stay home.

Edited to delete my last sentence because I think it was probably incorrect!

 

[MillauFr]

Unfortunately we are already too late to stop exponential growth in some areas.

If the growth is indeed exponential slowing it down isn't going to help. Exponential growth means everyone in the country is going to be exposed in the next month.

 

[princessmommyx3]

You have people saying things are going to get very, very bad and also people who say the opposite. I think people are going to believe what they want to believe and not much will change our own personal predictions. Only time will tell who is correct. I personally was encouraged by this report today:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coron...e-earlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/

 

[randumb0]

If the growth is indeed exponential slowing it down isn't going to help. Exponential growth means everyone in the country is going to be exposed in the next month.

Not if they stay home

 

[Maggie'sMom]

If the growth is indeed exponential slowing it down isn't going to help. Exponential growth means everyone in the country is going to be exposed in the next month.

If everyone was out in public, then yes, everyone would become infected very quickly. That's why governments are telling people to stay home. If we can isolate people to slow down the spread, more people can be saved by limiting the demand on our health resources at any one time.

 

[LeiaOfAlderaan]

If the growth is indeed exponential slowing it down isn't going to help.

The growth is only exponential if you don’t slow it down by staying home. The exponential growth is only what happens if you do nothing.

 

[Minniesgal]

If the growth is indeed exponential slowing it down isn't going to help. Exponential growth means everyone in the country is going to be exposed in the next month.

The point of social isolation is to change the shape of the curve.