What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[Gentry2004]

The whole point of flattening the curve and moving peak is that it also makes the peak less high. You may still have the same number of people infected overall, but fewer at the same time, and, more importantly, fewer requiring critical care.

Difference between a winding trail up a cliff, and rock climbing a sheer cliff.

The incubation time on COVID-19 is the nasty bit. Flu is 1-4 days. COVID-19 is up to 2 weeks, some of which is infectious but low symptom or asymptomatic. So temperature checks in airports and ports are theater.

Exactly. Temperature screenings do nothing. The silent spreaders are the issue. They are not intending to infect anyone - they have no idea they are sick.

 

[monkeydawn]

I don't fully understand the peak. In San Diego, we are being told that we can peak next week. As of last night, there were less than 300 cases reported. We have 3.3 million people in our county. All of our parks, beaches are closed as are shopping malls, most strip malls and most businesses. Restaurants have take out, but no dining in. We are told to go buy take out to keep places in business and we are told to stay home and don't go anywhere that isn't necessary. I guess I'll find out what they mean next week when were will "likely peak."

How much testing is happening in your area. Here it is still very low and about 2/3 of the tests havent even been processed yet. So maybe they expect you will peak without knowing real numbers? That is just a guess.

 

[AquaDame]

If we're still only testing the sick, we're never going to know true numbers. Since people have been catching and spreading this thing without knowing for possibly a few months already, that ship has sailed. I really have no idea when we'll get back to normal.

 

[monkeydawn]

If we're still only testing the sick, we're never going to know true numbers. Since people have been catching and spreading this thing without knowing for possibly a few months already, that ship has sailed. I really have no idea when we'll get back to normal.

One thing Ive been wondering about is does the fact that this has happened once somehow make us more vulnerable to it happening again. I know throughout history there have been other pandemics but this is really the first in modern times, when travel has been so accessible to so many. So if we are more vulnerable or even if the perception is that we are more vulnerable then it really will be a long time, if ever, that we are back to pre-COVID levels of comfort.

I dont know, maybe thats a stupid line of thought but Im just by myself a lot now and my mind wanders...

 

[slg]

I predict two years...but maybe five. People are going to be travel shy, especially of cruises, and especially seniors who account for the majority of cruisers. Some cruise lines will not survive. Insurance most likely not cover covid related problems until there is a vaccine. I would imagine if there is a vaccine, maybe in 18 months, the demand to get one will be very high. Perhaps cruise lines will require proof of vaccination? However, back to the same way we once travelled, maybe never. Just as 9/11 changed things forever, so will covid 19.

 

[Deploraboo]

August 2021

 

[braysmommy]

Was just on a zoom meeting for my college department. A survey was sent out to college presidents and 2/3 of those surveyed don't think students will be back on campus this fall. Obviously we still need more info and see how this plays out but thought that percentage was staggering.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

If we're still only testing the sick, we're never going to know true numbers. Since people have been catching and spreading this thing without knowing for possibly a few months already, that ship has sailed. I really have no idea when we'll get back to normal.

There's also an important thing to note in this.

People have been saying "because of low tests we don't have real rates of sickness and death." But that is almost always being cited as "more sickness, less death."

Some data coming from abroad suggests that delayed testing is also resulting in underreported cause of death.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

One thing Ive been wondering about is does the fact that this has happened once somehow make us more vulnerable to it happening again.

An important consideration in this is that coronaviruses are animal in origin. So as a human (you're human, right?! on the internet...), you have no native immunity to this like you might a mutated human virus. It's one of the key differentiators from something like an influenza mutation - because it's a mutation, there is a potential for some immunity.

This has always been a possible scenario. That some of the more recent animal-origin viruses didn't romp Europe and North America to date has largely been luck, not preparation or immunity.

 

[choirfarm]

Was just on a zoom meeting for my college department. A survey was sent out to college presidents and 2/3 of those surveyed don't think students will be back on campus this fall. Obviously we still need more info and see how this plays out but thought that percentage was staggering.

My daughter is a senior. She is going to be majoring in musical theater in the fall. I've wondered but have not said anything. Her senior year sucks and now this. I don't know how you do musical theater online.

 

[holden]

Was just on a zoom meeting for my college department. A survey was sent out to college presidents and 2/3 of those surveyed don't think students will be back on campus this fall. Obviously we still need more info and see how this plays out but thought that percentage was staggering.

My DD17 would be devastated if she couldn’t return to school in the fall. She misses it so much. She just switched to her current school at the beginning of the school year. She finally found her tribe and now she can’t be with them.

 

[mmackeymouse]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Temperature scanning stick around for cruises and even at airports after this. I actually would fully support that new normal since we can’t count on people to do the right thing and not travel when they’re sick.

Here's the thing that I struggle with on the temperature thing. Some people run hot, some people run cool. In fact, I read an article in the last few weeks that the overall average temperature is lower than 98.6

I know for myself, I run cool, so if I am 98.9, that's abnormally warm for me. I think it's great that DCL would try to screen people, I do. But....you might have people who run cool who have a fever but are within the margin of error. You may have people who naturally run warm and might be just fine. You may have people who are asymptomatic. You may have people who have a fever completely unrelated to a virus. Maybe it's an ear infection.

Again, I applaud the attempt. I just think there are a lot of exception to the rule that might lead to people being let on that shouldn't or vice versa.

 

[Gentry2004]

Temp scanning does nothing. You can transmit the virus for 1-2 days before you show any symptoms. All those silent spreaders would not be found by a temperature scan, nor would the small but not insignificant number of people who have COVID-19 with no fever. Its security theater.

 

[lklgoodman]

My daughter is a senior. She is going to be majoring in musical theater in the fall. I've wondered but have not said anything. Her senior year sucks and now this. I don't know how you do musical theater online.

It's been over 30 yrs since I attended college. My first year didn't include classes for my major. We had to take a lot of classes like psychology, literature, history, chemistry, etc. If she has to take those, she should be able to do them online. I'm sorry about everything your dd and other high school kids are going to miss out on this year. My dd is only in 6th grade, she misses her friends, but isn't missing out on things older students will be. My dd is part of a dance company. They have their big recital every May. She's been practicing all her dances every day. I haven't said anything to her about it most likely not happening this year( of course we already paid for and received all her costumes a few weeks ago). Hopefully brighter days will be ahead.

 

[choirfarm]

It's been over 30 yrs since I attended college. My first year didn't include classes for my major. We had to take a lot of classes like psychology, literature, history, chemistry, etc. If she has to take those, she should be able to do them online. I'm sorry about everything your dd and other high school kids are going to miss out on this year. My dd is only in 6th grade, she misses her friends, but isn't missing out on things older students will be. My dd is part of a dance company. They have their big recital every May. She's been practicing all her dances every day. I haven't said anything to her about it most likely not happening this year( of course we already paid for and received all her costumes a few weeks ago). Hopefully brighter days will be ahead.

Yeah, it isn't like that for this major. It is ballet, acting, choir, music theory written, music theory aural, etc then one "regular class."

But for her, she has so much dual credit already. Her private school allowed it, then when they closed after 25 years at the end of her junior year, all of the seniors just decided to do dual credit rather than enroll at a brand new school as a senior. ( See what I mean about her senior year sucking.) So she has credit for Eng Comp I and II, Brit Lit, Am Hist I and II; American Government, Texas Government, College Algebra, Statistics, and Speech. She has science to take and that is it for her entry level classes. That said, it was going to help her because several semesters they had to take 18 hours with all of the dance, theater, music, ensembles as well as productions ( and there are 6-8 a year of those). So she was only going to have to take 12-15 hours a semester instead of 15-19.

I, too, hope brighter days are ahead. Can't judge anything now. I am praying things look better by July. If not, we will start thinking about options.

 

[lklgoodman]

Yeah, it isn't like that for this major. It is ballet, acting, choir, music theory written, music theory aural, etc then one "regular class."

But for her, she has so much dual credit already. Her private school allowed it, then when they closed after 25 years at the end of her junior year, all of the seniors just decided to do dual credit rather than enroll at a brand new school as a senior. ( See what I mean about her senior year sucking.) So she has credit for Eng Comp I and II, Brit Lit, Am Hist I and II; American Government, Texas Government, College Algebra, Statistics, and Speech. She has science to take and that is it for her entry level classes. That said, it was going to help her because several semesters they had to take 18 hours with all of the dance, theater, music, ensembles as well as productions ( and there are 6-8 a year of those). So she was only going to have to take 12-15 hours a semester instead of 15-19.

I, too, hope brighter days are ahead. Can't judge anything now. I am praying things look better by July. If not, we will start thinking about options.

That makes it even sadder knowing how hard she's worked already.

 

[choirfarm]

That makes it even sadder knowing how hard she's worked already.

Yeah, and I homeschooled her until 8th grade, then I started teaching and she started going to the private school. She is going to school 12-14 hours away and we are both excited. I mean, I do love her, but she is 18 and knows all I remember. We were both ready for her to spread her wings and fly. I am so proud of her that she got into a couple of good programs despite the fact that she doesn't have that much formal training. They saw a lot of potential, and I am so sad that she may not get to fly.

Speaking of which, I worry about the effect has on all of these "nonessential industries." like the arts and sports. People won't have the money when this is all over to travel or to attend those things. And yet, so much of our economy was built on travel and entertainment. It will be a restructuring. She just hit a really bad time.

 

[smmco]

I predict two years...but maybe five. People are going to be travel shy, especially of cruises, and especially seniors who account for the majority of cruisers. Some cruise lines will not survive. Insurance most likely not cover covid related problems until there is a vaccine. I would imagine if there is a vaccine, maybe in 18 months, the demand to get one will be very high. Perhaps cruise lines will require proof of vaccination? However, back to the same way we once travelled, maybe never. Just as 9/11 changed things forever, so will covid 19.

Travel shy? Maybe. Flat broke? More likely

 

[aggiedog]

Wow, I'm a little surprised about the college presidents. I have a HS senior now, and 2 in college who will still be there next year. The senior was asking about her June new student conference. I hadn't thought about it, but I'm not sure they'll do it without some sort of treatment/screening easily available, which is not likely.

In our area, they are only screening those that are having difficulty breathing, no matter how sick you are. Sick enough to have breathing issues is something like 15% of those infected. So that means 85% are going undetected?

 

[Mainsail Minnie]

I don't know about college, but as a classroom elementary teacher I can tell you that elementary schools can't stay closed next year without doing significant damage to many children. Homeschooling works well for a small minority of families, but not for most, for various reasons (parents too busy, etc.) And children's primary socialization occurs at school. It will be sacrificing many children's well-being to keep schools closed next year.