What’s you prediction for return to normal travel?

[gotomu212]

Not if they stay home

If everyone was out in public, then yes, everyone would become infected very quickly. That's why governments are telling people to stay home. If we can isolate people to slow down the spread, more people can be saved by limiting the demand on our health resources at any one time.

The growth is only exponential if you don’t slow it down by staying home. The exponential growth is only what happens if you do nothing.

I agree with all of this, but then that would also mean the “peak” is further away- or maybe we are using that word differently? Flatten the curve prolongs the infections so it either peaks fast with an expontial curve (and all heck breaks lose) or we prolong it (good for outcomes) but the peak takes much longer....

are we just using peak differently? Peak to me is when half the country has contracted it.

 

[MillauFr]

The point of social isolation is to change the shape of the curve.

There is no way in the United States you can lock everyone in their homes like they did in China. That is not possible. Not only did China force everyone to stay home they sent health workers to every house and forced people that had positive tests out of their homes. Do you really think that the Untied States is going to force people to isolate themselves at some government run facility away from their family members? People in the US will never tolerate that.

Sure we can slow down the time where everyone is exposed to the virus but only by a week maybe two. Besides in a couple of weeks the person in charge is going to put a stop to the social distancing and order people back to work.

 

[MillauFr]

The growth is only exponential if you don’t slow it down by staying home. The exponential growth is only what happens if you do nothing.

We are going to have exponential growth no matter what we do.

 

[LeiaOfAlderaan]

are we just using peak differently? Peak to me is when half the country has contracted it.

I’m certainly no expert but I think peak just means when you have the highest number of infections, and after the peak the total number goes down. (So you only really know when the peak was in hindsight.). And yes, I believe flattening the curve will move the peak out further. But if you’re testing everyone and know where the hotspots are, hopefully everyone won’t need to remain in lockdown for the duration. This is my understanding of it anyway!

 

[LeiaOfAlderaan]

There is no way in the United States you can lock everyone in their homes like they did in China. That is not possible. Not only did China force everyone to stay home they sent health workers to every house and forced people that had positive tests out of their homes. Do you really think that the Untied States is going to force people to isolate themselves at some government run facility away from their family members? People in the US will never tolerate that.

Sure we can slow down the time where everyone is exposed to the virus but only by a week maybe two. Besides in a couple of weeks the person in charge is going to put a stop to the social distancing and order people back to work.

I don’t know where you live but where I live we are all indeed practically locked in our homes and pretty much no one is going anywhere except the supermarket or for a walk. Because we are responsible Americans. That is how we are stopping the exponential growth. If you don’t want to believe that is helping, that’s fine. And it doesn’t matter what the president says, it is up to my governor to lift the shelter in place.

Anyways, I can see that we are not going to agree on basic facts so I’ll be using the “ignore” button on your posts, so no need to reply.

 

[Gentry2004]

I’m certainly no expert but I think peak just means when you have the highest number of infections, and after the peak the total number goes down. (So you only really know when the peak was in hindsight.). And yes, I believe flattening the curve will move the peak out further. But if you’re testing everyone and know where the hotspots are, hopefully everyone won’t need to remain in lockdown for the duration. This is my understanding of it anyway!

Agree with all of this.

 

[MillauFr]

I don’t know where you live but where I live we are all indeed practically locked in our homes and pretty much no one is going anywhere except the supermarket or for a walk. Because we are responsible Americans. That is how we are stopping the exponential growth. If you don’t want to believe that is helping, that’s fine. And it doesn’t matter what the president says, it is up to my governor to lift the shelter in place.

Anyways, I can see that we are not going to agree on basic facts so I’ll be using the “ignore” button on your posts, so no need to reply.

I live in Seattle and no one is locked in their homes. The parks are still packed with people and there are long lines at Costco.

 

[AquaDame]

I live in Seattle and no one is locked in their homes. The parks are still packed with people and there are long lines at Costco.

Exercise (walking in a park say) and grocery stores are exempt from the order as they are deemed essential.

This has nothing to do with when we expect a return to normal travel though - if you would like to continue the debate over how the virus is being handled we'd be happy to host a thread over on the community board. Lets get this one back on track please.

 

[gotomu212]

I’m certainly no expert but I think peak just means when you have the highest number of infections, and after the peak the total number goes down. (So you only really know when the peak was in hindsight.). And yes, I believe flattening the curve will move the peak out further. But if you’re testing everyone and know where the hotspots are, hopefully everyone won’t need to remain in lockdown for the duration. This is my understanding of it anyway!

Thanks and I agree with you too. And just to make it clear I 1000% support stay at home orders, and my family has been at home for almost 2 weeks and have zero plans to go out, and agree that any reduction in cases is worth it because this is going to be bad.

I only opened the discussion because I’ve heard from lots and lots of different sources that this was going to peak in just a few weeks and at the end of the 30 day shelter we’d all emerge back to business as usually, and I personally think this is actually the calm before the storm and things are going to get way higher than 250k cases before we peak (by like a factor of 1000) and I wonder if officials are soft pedaling because they get the next several months are going to strain the entire country and think people hoping that they just need to get through 21 more days is going to reduce real panic?? Instead it just seems really contradictory to me. I guess we’ll see in 3 weeks.

 

[tidefan]

We are going to have exponential growth no matter what we do.

We don't really know if the growth of the virus is exponential. The growth in testing has been exponential and because we are testing, we are finding cases. Those cases may have already been there, just not counted. Epidemiologists have always said that you are really about 2 weeks behind where you think you are. Right now, that's scary news. The good news (if there is any) is that means you are also 2 weeks closer to the end.

Again, my guess to any kind of "return" is when we can reach the point of fully available testing. My guess on that is in a month or two at best. I would guess you could resume activities 2 to 4 weeks after that incrementally.

 

[holden]

We have been told by our governor not to leave the house except for life-saving measures (food shopping, medical emergency, etc). I’m expecting this to continue until mid May. By then I hope we can venture out a bit.

 

[tarheelz]

Return to normal travel? Would that be pre-COVID, pre-9/11, or pre-D.B. Cooper travel conditions?

 

[PrincessShmoo]

My best guess - not before summer.

 

[Vicki106]

We have a trip scheduled to Northern Ireland in mid-June and a Caribbean cruise on the Fantasy August 8, I am figuring that we probably won't be able to go to Belfast, but really, really hoping that we can sail in August. Fingers-crossed.

 

[Belle53]

Hopefully by fall. Our trip earlier this month was cut short. We still got to go for three days. We are planning on returning in October. We're looking forward to Mickey's halloween party.

When do you think tourism will be allowed again? I realize it’s anyone’s guess. what’s yours?

We have a trip planned to Iceland in July 2020. I figure it won’t happen but it’s too soon to cancel anyway.

Our first Disney Cruise is planned for March 2021.

What are your upcoming trips?

I have been enjoying more time with my daughter. And getting my home organized. Today I plan to bake with her which is something we rarely do together. I coincidentally am on my four week sabbatical at the moment so I don’t need to juggle WFH with childcare at the moment,

Share your story?

 

[_auroraborealis_]

The whole point of flattening the curve and moving peak is that it also makes the peak less high. You may still have the same number of people infected overall, but fewer at the same time, and, more importantly, fewer requiring critical care.

Difference between a winding trail up a cliff, and rock climbing a sheer cliff.

The incubation time on COVID-19 is the nasty bit. Flu is 1-4 days. COVID-19 is up to 2 weeks, some of which is infectious but low symptom or asymptomatic. So temperature checks in airports and ports are theater.

 

[FigmentSpark]

The whole point of flattening the curve and moving peak is that it also makes the peak less high. You may still have the same number of people infected overall, but fewer at the same time, and, more importantly, fewer requiring critical care.

Difference between a winding trail up a cliff, and rock climbing a sheer cliff.

The incubation time on COVID-19 is the nasty bit. Flu is 1-4 days. COVID-19 is up to 2 weeks, some of which is infectious but low symptom or asymptomatic. So temperature checks in airports and ports are theater.

I like to think of it as the difference between shopping on Black Friday and shopping in the middle of Sept. Sure, you're doing Xmas shopping, but there are a lot more people competing for the same toys/electronics/deals on Black Friday than in mid-Sept. And out of all those Black Friday shoppers, some get hurt. That doesn't usually happen in mid-Sept, either.

Flatten the curve.

 

[sethschroeder]

Travel May 2020
Vacation Travel June 2020
"Normal Travel" April 2021 or 45-60 days after a vaccine has been distributed

On a side note:
I think work from home is going to be a main stay for the next 12 months. People will start rotating through the office but a full office I can't see being a thing unless productivity is severely hampered for that organization. Places like restaurants, bars, and such will reopen. The difference being typically those draw locals while big offices draw people from 1-2hrs away.

I will be interested to see what happens with DCL and their discounts in the future. If my trip to France gets called off to start September I may look to jump on a cruise instead if things seem okay.

 

[cruisehopeful]

I don't fully understand the peak. In San Diego, we are being told that we can peak next week. As of last night, there were less than 300 cases reported. We have 3.3 million people in our county. All of our parks, beaches are closed as are shopping malls, most strip malls and most businesses. Restaurants have take out, but no dining in. We are told to go buy take out to keep places in business and we are told to stay home and don't go anywhere that isn't necessary. I guess I'll find out what they mean next week when were will "likely peak."

 

[DisBNewB]

In regards to the peak, as others have mentioned, it's when there's the highest number. I don't know for sure, this is just how I've read/understood things - the idea is that the peak is in the next few weeks for most places because it takes time AFTER places institute stay at home recommendations to see them actually helping, and in the meantime, the cases that are coming up are (generally) people who were infected prior to that (and also are tied into increased testing).

If the stay at home orders/recommendations are lifted at some point prior to a large number of people having immunity and/or there being a vaccine or proven antiviral treatment, there can be another separate peak.