doubletoast
Earning My Ears
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2019
I thought Memorial day for a while, but now I am worried it might be like Labor day.
I think you're exactly right. I'll be the first to bring some data into this:No way they stay closed that long. Once hospitals can handle the load the parks will open and those that want to assume the risk can go.
Nothing irresponsible about that.I think you're exactly right. I'll be the first to bring some data into this:
They will reopen in June because peak new-cases per day will occur within the next two weeks, followed shortly by peak deaths per day (assuming all states do what they need to do). This means case numbers will decline significantly throughout May, causing there to be plenty of available beds throughout the country by June. (not to mention whatever, if any, new testing precautions we institute) Here's just one of many good resources:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The CDC director has also said that it is likely that this virus has a seasonality, where there are far fewer cases in the summer, but not confirmed. A second wave in the winter is a certain.
Once we reach the point where the healthcare system is back to reasonable levels of capacity, I can't imagine the parks don't open in order for them to make some money, perhaps with some new precautions in place related to sanitization. Not to mention we could all use the morale boost. There is nothing irresponsible about that - part of the reason this virus is so deadly is because our healthcare system was not ready for this type of pandemic, through no fault of our incredible healthcare professionals. Once our system can handle the patients and has a firm grasp on what this virus does, which seems likely that it will by the end of May, it will be ok for us to venture out again with much less risk. Especially if it is a "seasonal" virus.
Also, yes Disney is a business that wants to make money, but they have talked to many smart people, and they have smart people working for them. If they're letting people book June 1, they have a reason.
Just my two cents. I have a wedding followed by WDW honeymoon in early July, so I care a lot! I'll be the first to say I have no idea what's gonna happen
Nooooo. I refuse to accept this. My vacation is 23-31. So they will open before it. They must, I finally got a beach club waitlist, it’ll never happen again.
I think you're exactly right. I'll be the first to bring some data into this:
They will reopen in June because peak new-cases per day will occur within the next two weeks, followed shortly by peak deaths per day (assuming all states do what they need to do). This means case numbers will decline significantly throughout May, causing there to be plenty of available beds throughout the country by June. (not to mention whatever, if any, new testing precautions we institute) Here's just one of many good resources:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
The CDC director has also said that it is likely that this virus has a seasonality, where there are far fewer cases in the summer, but not confirmed. A second wave in the winter is a certain.
Once we reach the point where the healthcare system is back to reasonable levels of capacity, I can't imagine the parks don't open in order for them to make some money, perhaps with some new precautions in place related to sanitization. Not to mention we could all use the morale boost. There is nothing irresponsible about that - part of the reason this virus is so deadly is because our healthcare system was not ready for this type of pandemic, through no fault of our incredible healthcare professionals. Once our system can handle the patients and has a firm grasp on what this virus does, which seems likely that it will by the end of May, it will be ok for us to venture out again with much less risk. Especially if it is a "seasonal" virus.
Also, yes Disney is a business that wants to make money, but they have talked to many smart people, and they have smart people working for them. If they're letting people book June 1, they have a reason.
Just my two cents. I have a wedding followed by WDW honeymoon in early July, so I care a lot! I'll be the first to say I have no idea what's gonna happen
I agree. They all announced the closures at the same time.That's where the social part of it comes in. There's a secret weekly meeting somewhere for all the CEOs to come to an agreement. We all open together so none of us looks like a jackA. COVID-19 could be raging still but between that type of agreement, and hitting the right time where we're stir crazy...that might be enough for them to call it and recoup some revenue.
And I acknowledge what I'm saying and I will say that my comment is based on us having a - when will the park be open discussion and not a what's best for the world health wise discussion. The latter is a polarizing subject that I don't really want to get into...
The card carrying cynic part of me is wondering about the economics on a state level. Florida is loosing a ton of revenue from the hotel tax not being collected. While the government has to keep people safe, the also have to pay the police, etc. But these decisions are well above my pay grade. However, I do think its why June 1 may very well be a hotel opening, but not parks. So many things to balance.
The card carrying cynic part of me is wondering about the economics on a state level. Florida is loosing a ton of revenue from the hotel tax not being collected. While the government has to keep people safe, the also have to pay the police, etc. But these decisions are well above my pay grade. However, I do think its why June 1 may very well be a hotel opening, but not parks. So many things to balance.
Food for thought:
China hit their peak in Feb. They reacted much faster and dropped the hammer much harder (effectively locking down something like 75 million people, doing in depth trace contact measures, employing much stricter quarantine procedures, etc). Even though it appears their released numbers are highly suspect, it does appear things are starting to open back up there but Disney Shanghai is still closed.
Nothing irresponsible about that.
Are you thinking about yourself, or all the good folks (many elderly) who live in Florida?
As a Floridian I love the tourists, but please let this play out. Don’t push it, and I hope Disney doesn’t as well.
Read a book
A phased reopening is the only practical way to go, surely? The parks and resorts are effectively mothballed and starting up from scratch - they’ve got to get all the staff back from wherever they’re currently hunkered down (both front-of-house and backstage), the food outlets supplied and running, the rides out of the ‘shutdown maintenance’ mode that they must be in currently.the more I study it a phased opening appears to be the most likely path. Phased in the sense of how many total guests are allowed in the parks at any one time rather than partial park opening
If they start with on site guests only at 60% occupancy then about 60,000 guests. Assuming full park hours, with an average of 2/3 actually in the parks at any one time park attend would be 40,000. That is about 20-25% of what has existed before Covid 19
At that level with significant adaptations effective social distancing could have a significant impact.
To me this is the best calculated path to seeing if it is possible It also has the advantage of maximizing revenue from WDW.