JUNE 1ST- NO CHANCE

[Praying Colonel]

Speaking personally, I won't feel comfortable standing in a big wad of people, sitting in a packed theater, etc., on June 1 or anytime following remotely closely after that. So if Disney or other entertainment providers open at that time, I hope they can find others who will go.

 

[Brett Wyman]

Speaking personally, I won't feel comfortable standing in a big wad of people, sitting in a packed theater, etc., on June 1 or anytime close to that. So if Disney or other entertainment providers open at that time, I hope they can find others who will go.

Uh did you see the crowds the last day before they closed? Apparently a lot of people just don't care, don't know, or don't care to know. Fauci is saying even in hard hit areas late April will be the peak. That gives the month of May to hopefully slide further down the other side. June 1st is very aggressive, but end of June not so much. Assuming Fauci's prediction pans out.

 

[SaintsManiac]

I don't know but I'm sick of thinking about it.

I no longer pay attention to the minute by minute count of how many test positive, how many die. I don't watch the news much anymore except our local news. I'm not nervous or anxious anymore, just don't feel need to be obsessed with it anymore. It will end when it ends.

I work and am thankful to still be working, go for walks, talk to friends/family, we cook dinner, watch movies and are waiting it out.

To say I have "covid fatigue" would be an understatement.

I’m with you. Let’s just think about our May 2021 trips!

 

[bobbie68]

Hi I posted on another thread that I don't see June 1st as a realistic date. The models at the briefing last night was shelter at home for the whole nation and you can see the best odds by May 30th. The April 30th deadline will get extended. Also today on Govenor Cuomo's briefing when he talked about the model he actually pointed out that it said by the end of July we should be flat of the curve. I understand this because once you peak you still have many weeks coming down the other side.

I agree the economy can't stay closed indefinte and I think when it does open things will go back in stages. I think July is a very real timeline to look at. However, I hope it does happen much faster.

 

[anniemae]

Speaking personally, I won't feel comfortable standing in a big wad of people, sitting in a packed theater, etc., on June 1 or anytime following remotely closely after that. So if Disney or other entertainment providers open at that time, I hope they can find others who will go.

This is how I feel. People are chomping at the bit to get back to Disney. IMO Disney is probably the worst place you could go once things open up again. So many people from all over the world in a tight space touching all the lap bars, railings and seat belts. The crowded busses the busy restaurants. OMG it makes me crazy thinking about it.

 

[Praying Colonel]

Uh did you see the crowds the last day before they closed? Apparently a lot of people just don't care, don't know, or don't care to know. Fauci is saying even in hard hit areas late April will be the peak. That gives the month of May to hopefully slide further down the other side. June 1st is very aggressive, but end of June not so much. Assuming Fauci's prediction pans out.

Yes, I saw it, and to those who would be willing to chance it on 1 June, I'll just say "best wishes." I got the Swine Flu during our WDW trip in 09 and I have no desire to repeat that experience with something that's potentially much more severe. IMHO any major entertainment venue will be inviting trouble on many levels if it opens on 1 June.

 

[DLgal]

I actually think it is possible that the parks all open up at different times. I forsee Disneyland opening ahead of WDW. Orange County, CA, to date, hasn't been hit particularly hard, despite having a case as far back as early February. We are still well below ICU capacity (latest numbers are 46/670 ICU beds occupied). If things continue this way locally, I can see Disneyland easily opening back up on June 1, if not sooner.

I think Tokyo Disneyland and WDW, and potentially Paris will open later. I think Shanghai and Hong Kong will open sooner.

Just my guess, based on the way things are trending in different areas. It would also make much more sense to open these parks in a staggered manner, rather than all at the same time.

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

 

[chicagoshannon]

The chart they showed at the new conference yesterday showed the bottom of the curve- the absolute bottom- at June 1st. So highly possible it will be open by June 1. Also, up til now the models have been pretty far off on the doom and gloom side so also possible things will be over sooner.

Washington is already showing to be on the downside of the curve.

 

[Praying Colonel]

For reference, here's the chart they referenced in the briefing:



Note that the lowest part of the projection actually doesn't happen until well past June 1. The projected deaths/day on June 1 look to be at about the same level as they were a week-10 days ago.

Again, I won't feel comfortable being in a large crowd on June 1 if that projection is accurate.

 

[LSUmiss]

Uh did you see the crowds the last day before they closed? Apparently a lot of people just don't care, don't know, or don't care to know. Fauci is saying even in hard hit areas late April will be the peak. That gives the month of May to hopefully slide further down the other side. June 1st is very aggressive, but end of June not so much. Assuming Fauci's prediction pans out.

I hope he’s right for more reasons than just WDW. But I’m really hoping we can get back to wdw by end of July.

 

[cabanafrau]

I do not anticipate "shutdowning" to end totally before the month of August.
I think there will be rolling shut downs the same way they started
Hope I'm wrong.

Not being rude, but I really, really hope you're wrong.

I really wish China had been more transparent all the way around. A vaccine and antiviral treatments could potentially have had that many more scientists working on it that much earlier, and a real look at their tragic losses might have helped the rest of the world come to grips with planning and strategizing a bit more quickly and manufacturing on essential preventative equipment would have been seriously ramped up long ago.

 

[sam_gordon]

For reference, here's the chart they referenced in the briefing:

View attachment 484870

Note that the lowest part of the projection actually doesn't happen until well past June 1. The projected deaths/day on June 1 look to be at about the same level as they were a week-10 days ago.

Again, if that's OK for you and your family, knock yourselves out.

Where is that for? The US? NY? Florida?

 

[Cannot_Wait_4Disney]

The chart they showed at the new conference yesterday showed the bottom of the curve- the absolute bottom- at June 1st. So highly possible it will be open by June 1. Also, up til now the models have been pretty far off on the doom and gloom side so also possible things will be over sooner.

Washington is already showing to be on the downside of the curve.

Washington's numbers were skewed by the nursing homes it cut through. At first they were skewed worse. , Now that those incidents are no longer affecting their daily numbers things appear to be a bit better than they otherwise would appear to be now that those particular incidents are behind them. That does not mean they are on the downside, nor out of the woods in general. And because their numbers were skewed, I wouldn't really consider them representative of what will happen in other states. Washington sure doesn't think they are on the downside yet in general.

https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/co...edics-set-up-shop/XIDPHMLVOJAAREQ5YCL75367PU/

 

[LSUmiss]

This is how I feel. People are chomping at the bit to get back to Disney. IMO Disney is probably the worst place you could go once things open up again. So many people from all over the world in a tight space touching all the lap bars, railings and seat belts. The crowded busses the busy restaurants. OMG it makes me crazy thinking about it.

I think international travel will be banned for a while until it’s under control worldwide. I think Disney could open before this.

 

[Praying Colonel]

And if you want to dig a little deeper, this is the website for IHME, which is doing the modeling work that produced the chart at yesterday's briefing.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
You can look at what they project by date and by state.

On June 1 they project 217 COVID 19 deaths nationally. The closest similar date we've had so far is March 25 (230 deaths). They also project on June 1 2,019 ventilators needed, 2,524 ICU beds needed and 22,077 total beds needed for COVID 19 patients.

 

[Praying Colonel]

Where is that for? The US? NY? Florida?

That's for the US. The website I reference above allows you to break it out by state, as well.

 

[disneychrista]

Right now I foresee a fall or later opening. Not a summer opening. As things get worse I see MORE restrictions. So by June I see most stores, restaurants, services, etc except the most basic essentials to be closed. By August things opening back up in stages. By October maybe entertainment venues will reopen.

 

[Colleen27]

I think June is probably a good guess. The medical aspect is only one part of a bigger picture in all of this, and the other pieces are likely to push a return to normalcy sooner than a purely medical evaluation might support. June is past the forecasted peak impact on healthcare systems and by then people will be fed up with isolating and living half a life and somewhat acclimated to a higher-than-usual number of disease deaths. It also lines up with the end of the stimulus bill's economic support, so people will be feeling more pressure to return to work.

 

[JaxDad]

And if you want to dig a little deeper, this is the website for IHME, which is doing the modeling work that produced the chart at yesterday's briefing.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
You can look at what they project by date and by state.

On June 1 they project 217 COVID 19 deaths nationally. The closest similar date we've had so far is March 25 (230 deaths). They also project on June 1 2,019 ventilators needed, 2,524 ICU beds needed and 22,077 total beds needed for COVID 19 patients.

The Corona model I've been studying looks a lot better...