CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[RamblingMad]

My husband said this last night. Even then, I'm not sure how much more mitigation we'll see. If nothing else, I *hope* that our rapidly rising numbers gives people some pause regarding getting together for any indoor Halloween parties, and unfortunately, for Thanksgiving as well. We're really just getting started with colder/wetter weather here in NJ, and we've already seen numbers being to take off.

People around me are having Halloween parties. I think, people are having COVID burnout. And since the message has been that it won’t kill you if you’re under 65, people aren’t taking it seriously. They’re ignoring the long hauler effects because it hasn’t been prominent in the news cycle.

 

[Jonfw2]

You weren't referring to me, but I think we can be simultaneously impressed that a vaccine is going to be developed this quickly while understanding that for most of us, it's going to be another 6 months or so before we get it. I just saw on twitter that my governor (in NJ) is going to address "our plans for an equitable rollout of a vaccine once one is available." So, I'll be listening to that.

Scott Gottlieb, former FDA head, who has been apolitical during this whole deal and has pretty much just called balls and strikes, said this morning that we're going to have to go through another phase of this pandemic, and that's beginning now. He said it's likely to be the most difficult. We're all so tired of all of this, and want it to be over, but that's not where the virus is. And he also said that we are on the cusp...a tipping point, of heading into exponential spread in certain parts of the country. That's happening in Europe now. Italy and Spain instituted pretty tough restrictions yesterday, a sort of "quasi-lockdown". I suspect we'll see that here, but in our usual "ad hoc/no national plan" fashion....it'll be state by state, city by city, and finally, individual by individual.

You're right about Gotleib and he is terrific. But you left out one thing he said: he said this could be the worst phase, but that it's also the LAST phase.

 

[dvcgirl67]

People around me are having Halloween parties. I think, people are having COVID burnout. And since the message has been that it won’t kill you if you’re under 65, people aren’t taking it seriously. They’re ignoring the long hauler effects because it hasn’t been prominent in the news cycle.

Yup, I suspect that's happening all over.

Gottlieb also has an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal advocating for a National Mask Mandate. We should have had this all along. We're certainly not going to get it now.

 

[Jonfw2]

People around me are having Halloween parties. I think, people are having COVID burnout. And since the message has been that it won’t kill you if you’re under 65, people aren’t taking it seriously. They’re ignoring the long hauler effects because it hasn’t been prominent in the news cycle.

I drove past a strip of bars in my little suburb yesterday just as the early NFL games were starting- the numbers are going to keep going up.

 

[dvcgirl67]

You're right about Gotleib and he is terrific. But you left out one thing he said: he said this could be the worst phase, but that it's also the LAST phase.

Correct, he did say that. Hoping that he's correct on that front. That'll depend on how many more people are infected between now and the spring, and how many Americans are willing and able to get a vaccine.

 

[wvjules]

Did you think it was really that "scheduled"? If it gets approved in the next couple of months, will you not appreciate the success of developing a vaccine that quickly?

No I don't think it was really "scheduled" and yes I will appreciate the success of a vaccine being developed quickly, safely and effectively.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I think, people are having COVID burnout.

That's one of the reasons I feel a national lockdown or national shutdowns of businesses, a state-wide lockdown or state-wide shutdown of businesses wasn't the right path and what I mean by that was the push for everywhere to be under a stay at home order/safer at home/shelter in place irrespective of one's given situation. It never jived with me that that was how the virus would actually work and now we just have places with delayed impact from the virus in terms of it showing up (and in some places showing up with a vengeance). And if you consider that places around the world are also showing the fatigue a more national effort in shutdowns doesn't absolve COVID fatigue.

The biggest issue to me throughout all of this has been access to resources. If people look around they would see that human nature has shown to be virtually the same in many countries around the world. Lax behaviors, gatherings both with families and large gatherings, restaurant outings and more. But our lack of resources available to all, reliance on bidding wars, private citizens or companies purchasing testing kits and PPE to help their communities, backlog of testing results, etc puts us at a more disadvantage to deal with cases on a more efficient manner at least IMO. Though we are not the only country that has issues with testing and efficiency in that.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I drove past a strip of bars in my little suburb yesterday just as the early NFL games were starting- the numbers are going to keep going up.

One thing I've noticed is that people in my direct area at least are trying to eat outside as much as they can. I've seen more places pay attention to heaters, some places have def. invested more in purchasing that. On the other side of the state line they extended the ordinance to allow for tables to be placed outside in places they aren't normally allowed, etc.

Realistically it's only going to extend the outdoor 'season' a bit longer but it's something.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Well it's late October. Is the vaccine coming this week? Asking for a friend.

I pay attention to how the phases are going, trying to keep up on the various vaccines being tested and then most recently the vaccine process my state and the state next to me has submitted to the CDC. All that other stuff is just white noise.

 

[Jonfw2]

Very interesting piece here...

https://www.disneyfoodblog.com/2020...hy-this-could-make-a-huge-difference-for-you/

 

[Jonfw2]

Merck today in its earnings announcement stated that they will have "millions of doses" of their ORAL antiviral Covid drug produced by the end of the year. This is currently in phase 3 testing and they expect to seek emergency approval relatively soon.

https://stockhouse.com/news/press-r...nnounces-third-quarter-2020-financial-results

 

[godisney14]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/cru...-now-unlikely-to-come-before-us-election.html
Pfizer data delayed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/lilly-antibody-drug-fails-in-a-covid-19-study-others-go-on.html
Looks like the Eli Lily antibody drug fails to improve hospitalized patients.

 

[Jonfw2]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/cru...-now-unlikely-to-come-before-us-election.html
Pfizer data delayed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/lilly-antibody-drug-fails-in-a-covid-19-study-others-go-on.html
Looks like the Eli Lily antibody drug fails to improve hospitalized patients.

Pfizer's delay, which really only amounts to a week, seems to be entirely related to not wanting to have the results available as a political influencer.

On Lily's drug, you are correct, but you've left out important issue: they are seeking emergency use for EARLY stage NON hospitalized patients.

 

[tinkerdorabelle]

If they do have a mask mandate as someone mentioned, (it is pretty mandated here in state I live already), they should also make sure people WEAR THEM CORRECTLY. Holy cow, the Petsmart by me Sat saw several people were wearing masks not covering their nose, even worker I saw doing it. This really surprised me bc NY is really strict with masks and we really jumped on it quickly, and now are at the lowest level of cases of any state, tho starting to rise some. Also had just come from Lowes and there were a couple people in there doing it. I had never noticed this before. Wear your masks and cover your entire nose and mouth. You don't get to keep your nose out of the mask.

 

[Shellsbutt]

If they do have a mask mandate as someone mentioned, (it is pretty mandated here in state I live already), they should also make sure people WEAR THEM CORRECTLY. Holy cow, the Petsmart by me Sat saw several people were wearing masks not covering their nose, even worker I saw doing it. This really surprised me bc NY is really strict with masks and we really jumped on it quickly, and now are at the lowest level of cases of any state, tho starting to rise some. Also had just come from Lowes and there were a couple people in there doing it. I had never noticed this before. Wear your masks and cover your entire nose and mouth. You don't get to keep your nose out of the mask.

I see people doing this all the time-some on purpose and some accidentally I suppose. The tv reporters, the minute they start talking, the mask slips below the nose and then they are constantly adjusting it. I try to wear mine properly but it's hard when you need to wear glasses to see. Yesterday morning I went into Trader Joe's and my glasses instantly fogged up, couldn't see anything. I had to put them on top of my head and of course everything was blurry but I guess better than foggy My husband said it was because the glasses were cold(starting to get cold here in mornings, finally) and my breath was hot, heater was on in store, etc. It's very annoying. I really try to give people the benefit of the doubt and stay out of their way. It would be very hard to enforce in my opinion.

 

[BrianL]

I see people doing this all the time-some on purpose and some accidentally I suppose. The tv reporters, the minute they start talking, the mask slips below the nose and then they are constantly adjusting it. I try to wear mine properly but it's hard when you need to wear glasses to see. Yesterday morning I went into Trader Joe's and my glasses instantly fogged up, couldn't see anything. I had to put them on top of my head and of course everything was blurry but I guess better than foggy My husband said it was because the glasses were cold(starting to get cold here in mornings, finally) and my breath was hot, heater was on in store, etc. It's very annoying. I really try to give people the benefit of the doubt and stay out of their way. It would be very hard to enforce in my opinion.

Yeah, I have glasses fogging issues too. It is worse in cooler weather. When it was hot and humid here it wasn't as bad. There is some stuff you can get that is supposedly anti-fog, but I don't know if it really works. I've been tempted to try it.

 

[Colleen27]

Yep. We usually follow Europe by a month or two.

I don’t expect any lock downs until we’re pass the election.

I don't expect more lockdowns at all. Between the lawsuits and the economy, they just aren't going to happen in most of the US. Even in the states that will want to implement them (like mine), the economic pressure at this point is just too intense. A million people in my state are receiving unemployment and most are set to lose even that minimal support in the next 6-8 weeks. Some evictions have resumed already, and the remaining protections are set to expire at the end of the year. No elected official is going to embrace the massive wave of hunger and homelessness that further lockdowns will cause, and there's not a single reason to believe that further income support or foreclosure/eviction protections will be forthcoming. And besides, every public health order we get immediately ends up tied up in court and overturned with an instruction to work with the legislature (leaders of which are on record as opposing ALL restrictions on businesses and individuals), so whatever lockdown is ordered would only be in place for as long as it would take to get a challenge heard. For better or worse, I think we're pretty much locked into the "herd immunity" approach now.

 

[RamblingMad]

I don't expect more lockdowns at all. Between the lawsuits and the economy, they just aren't going to happen in most of the US. Even in the states that will want to implement them (like mine), the economic pressure at this point is just too intense. A million people in my state are receiving unemployment and most are set to lose even that minimal support in the next 6-8 weeks. Some evictions have resumed already, and the remaining protections are set to expire at the end of the year. No elected official is going to embrace the massive wave of hunger and homelessness that further lockdowns will cause, and there's not a single reason to believe that further income support or foreclosure/eviction protections will be forthcoming. And besides, every public health order we get immediately ends up tied up in court and overturned with an instruction to work with the legislature (leaders of which are on record as opposing ALL restrictions on businesses and individuals), so whatever lockdown is ordered would only be in place for as long as it would take to get a challenge heard. For better or worse, I think we're pretty much locked into the "herd immunity" approach now.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see lockdowns in parts of the Midwest as early as December. I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago shutdown within the next month. Parts of the UK already locked down. Parts of Europe are also locking down. It seems likely we will go through this one last time until we can get a vaccine in the summer.

We do need another stimulus bill. We need this really badly.

Herd immunity isn't an option when only about 10% of the population has had the virus. There is no way hospitals can handle it. Hospitals are running out of beds in the Midwest already, and we haven't even made it to Thanksgiving yet.

 

[Colleen27]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see lockdowns in parts of the Midwest as early as December. I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago shutdown within the next month. Parts of the UK already locked down. Parts of Europe are also locking down. It seems likely we will go through this one last time until we can get a vaccine in the summer.

We do need another stimulus bill. We need this really badly.

Herd immunity isn't an option when only about 10% of the population has had the virus. There is no way hospitals can handle it. Hospitals are running out of beds in the Midwest already, and we haven't even made it to Thanksgiving yet.

I could maybe see it in cities/counties, because the political and social fallout of the economic consequences will primarily land elsewhere. I don't expect to see further state lockdowns because I don't expect to see further stimulus until early next year, if at all, and by then the worst of the winter surge will be baked in. If there wasn't enough political will to get it done before the election, there certainly won't be in a lame duck session when public opinion is irrelevant to a crucial number of the parties involved. And it is abundantly clear that there will be no federal action this year, at the very least.

I'm not advocating for herd immunity. I don't think it is a reasonable approach unless it is pursued cautiously and with a patience those advocating for it have not exhibited (tiered reopenings, universal and enforced mask mandates, circuit breakers built in to the plan based on hospitalizations, etc.), and even then it would be costly. But I don't think there is any other path available to us right now, between the lack of public cooperation and the lack of economic support. At some point, the virus is simply going to be too widespread for anything less than the sort of total and enforced lockdowns that we've never seen here, and for political/cultural reasons aren't likely to see, to have an impact. I'm also not particularly optimistic about public vaccination by summer; a handful of targeted, high-risk groups, sure, but not enough of the population to constrain spread through vaccination alone.

 

[RamblingMad]

I could maybe see it in cities/counties, because the political and social fallout of the economic consequences will primarily land elsewhere. I don't expect to see further state lockdowns because I don't expect to see further stimulus until early next year, if at all, and by then the worst of the winter surge will be baked in. If there wasn't enough political will to get it done before the election, there certainly won't be in a lame duck session when public opinion is irrelevant to a crucial number of the parties involved. And it is abundantly clear that there will be no federal action this year, at the very least.

I'm not advocating for herd immunity. I don't think it is a reasonable approach unless it is pursued cautiously and with a patience those advocating for it have not exhibited (tiered reopenings, universal and enforced mask mandates, circuit breakers built in to the plan based on hospitalizations, etc.), and even then it would be costly. But I don't think there is any other path available to us right now, between the lack of public cooperation and the lack of economic support. At some point, the virus is simply going to be too widespread for anything less than the sort of total and enforced lockdowns that we've never seen here, and for political/cultural reasons aren't likely to see, to have an impact. I'm also not particularly optimistic about public vaccination by summer; a handful of targeted, high-risk groups, sure, but not enough of the population to constrain spread through vaccination alone.

This is WI. It's really bad.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/wisconsin/
At some point something will need to happen to constrain it. The daily deaths are now rising, so it's likely being transmitted from the younger population to the older population. Hospitals don't have the capacity to handle it. We ran into issues in the sun belt states, where we got close to capacity.

And the first signs of shutting down are happening in Chicago. The good news is that we have a better handle over how it spreads than we did last March.

https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-illinois-covid-19-today-chicago-restrictions-covid-19/7399634/