CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[godisney14]

I haven’t kept records of how many doses the different companies have stated they will bring by a certain date. But, Pfizer recently just this week said (in a perfect world with perfect conditions), they will have produced enough vaccine for up to 50 million people globally by end of March 2021.

 

[Colleen27]

If you want an accurate prediction, I'd say by the end of June '21 the vaccine would be in wide spread release. Possibly earlier, but I wouldn't count on it.

Widespread, by that definition, being tens of millions of doses in a world that is clamoring for billions. We're assuming that as Americans we'll be at the front of that line, but since we've declined to take part in the international development and a number of Asian and European nations are already competing to pre-order the more promising candidates, that may not prove to be the case. One of the companies with a candidate in development said, early on, that they're hoping to be able to put out 400 million doses per year... which would mean 15 years or so to produce enough for the world. Another said they "hope" to be able to scale up to a billion doses per year... so only 7 or 8 years to meet global demand. And while I'm sure we'll get the vaccine before sub-Saharan Africa, for example, I don't think it is a given that we'll get better or equal access when compared to residents of countries that have been more involved in the international development effort, particularly if the successful vaccine is developed by a foreign firm.

 

[Jonfw2]

I am impressed by the outright joy some here are experiencing that we are not out of this crisis yet.

Nonetheless, this week (in October), Astra Zeneca announced that their vaccine candidate does work and Moderna announced that they've created their worldwide distribution plan- which would certainly seem to suggest theirs works as well.

And perhaps those "end of October" comments are not directed at me, but I do feel like I should note that I NEVER said we'd have a vaccine in circulation by the end of October- in fact, I even posted an article saying it was unlikely.

What I actually said is that the pharma companies would have all the data they need by the end of October. The only change to that is Pfizer pushed it back a few weeks, presumably due to the election and not the data itself.

 

[Jonfw2]

Well here we are just a few days short of the end of oct. and no where near ready for the vaccine yet. So now what’s the next prediction the end of nov.

Your use of "nowhere near" is interesting to me. Two of the four have made critically important announcements this week suggesting the opposite is true.

 

[okeydokey]

Nobody is expressing joy that we are still in this crisis, WOW.

I think many people are just trying to be realistic about the reality on the ground. I work in disaster management and I am hoping beyond hope that we are on our way to a successful vaccine and soon, but I knew from the beginning that we were not going to be standing in line with our sleeves rolled up by end of October like some politicians wanted us to believe.

 

[bethbuchall]

What I actually said is that the pharma companies would have all the data they need by the end of October. The only change to that is Pfizer pushed it back a few weeks, presumably due to the election and not the data itself.

It's not because of the election. There haven't been enough people in Pfizer's test group that have become sick with COVID yet. They need at least 32 people (with hopes of at least 26 of those having received the placebo) before they can look at the data.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/health/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine.html

 

[Jonfw2]

It's not because of the election. There haven't been enough people in Pfizer's test group that have become sick with COVID yet. They need at least 32 people (with hopes of at least 26 of those having received the placebo) before they can look at the data.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/health/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine.html

I appreciate that- makes sense.

 

[Colleen27]

I am impressed by the outright joy some here are experiencing that we are not out of this crisis yet.

I haven't seen anything resembling joy over the situation. But I do think it is important to deal in realism. A lot of the covid fatigue that I hear about locally is from people who believed the "two weeks to flatten the curve" and "12 to 18 months to a vaccine" (which they took to mean until people can actually get it, not until one is submitted for emergency approval with another year or more of production time needed to get enough people vaccinated to start to constrain spread) and other unrealistically optimistic messaging campaigns early on. Even now, states that are talking about increased restrictions are talking about a couple of weeks when the reality is that whether we hit pause for two weeks or two months, we'll be right back where we are today as soon as life resumes.

I'm as frustrated as anyone. Like I've mentioned before/on other threads, my daughter's junior year of college is riding on vaccination that probably won't be available. When (if) it is moved to fully remote, she'll be in the position of having the majority of her four years taught online in a STEM major that requires (in ordinary times) 12 semesters of lab and field work, with her "lab experience" for 2.5 years of schooling coming via YouTube. But it doesn't do any good to pretend that the end is in sight when the facts don't support that position. All summer we knew there were two ways it could go - either fall/winter would be very, very bad as people started heading back indoors in the temperate majority of the country or it would surprise us all by being less bad than expected, which would have supported the thinking that there were a significant number of undiagnosed cases that would give enough population immunity to constrain spread. I think we know, now, which is coming to pass... and it isn't that "10x as many cases as confirmed" estimate, which would have about a quarter of the country already exposed and presumably immune. The last thing we need is another round of overly-optimistic or outright false messaging, telling people that if they sacrifice Thanksgiving they can still have Christmas or if they give up the holidays this year their kids can have prom and graduation when the reality is that none of those things are likely to be safe until 2022 or later.

 

[RamblingMad]

It's not because of the election. There haven't been enough people in Pfizer's test group that have become sick with COVID yet. They need at least 32 people (with hopes of at least 26 of those having received the placebo) before they can look at the data.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/health/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine.html

Stage 3 takes time. I thought we were compressing 5 years into 18 months. Having something by the summer is a few months short of 18. No idea why anyone is thinking we’ll have one this year.

 

[dvcgirl67]

But it doesn't do any good to pretend that the end is in sight when the facts don't support that position. All summer we knew there were two ways it could go - either fall/winter would be very, very bad as people started heading back indoors in the temperate majority of the country or it would surprise us all by being less bad than expected, which would have supported the thinking that there were a significant number of undiagnosed cases that would give enough population immunity to constrain spread. I think we know, now, which is coming to pass... and it isn't that "10x as many cases as confirmed" estimate, which would have about a quarter of the country already exposed and presumably immune. The last thing we need is another round of overly-optimistic or outright false messaging, telling people that if they sacrifice Thanksgiving they can still have Christmas or if they give up the holidays this year their kids can have prom and graduation when the reality is that none of those things are likely to be safe until 2022 or later.

You're exactly right. Vaccines will be rolled out, but the majority of us won't get it for several more months. Cases are really spiking here now, and it's not simply "because we're testing more". Hospitalizations are rising, and deaths are as well. We'll hit 100K cases per day soon....possibly this weekend. If we shouldn't get together by Thanksgiving, we sure as hell won't be getting together by Christmas. It's not about how you look at this....to me, it's not "we're rounding the corner" vs. "we're in for a dark winter". It just is what it is. If I was super careful about doing everything I could for the last 8 months, I'm sure as hell going to be extra careful now as there is simply more virus out in my community.

 

[Jonfw2]

Sorry I was a week late...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/cov...ercent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

 

[mom2rtk]

Sorry I was a week late...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/cov...ercent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html

You weren't on time. So it doesn't count.

 

[Jonfw2]

Some follow up info:

- The vaccine showed no issues with taking numerous boosters over time.
- Pfizer will provide it to poor nations on a non-profit basis.
- It can be modified for virus mutations in a matter of weeks.

 

[jlwhitney]

I haven’t kept records of how many doses the different companies have stated they will bring by a certain date. But, Pfizer recently just this week said (in a perfect world with perfect conditions), they will have produced enough vaccine for up to 50 million people globally by end of March 2021.

That won't go far at all seeing that the use alone has over 331 Millon people.

 

[mom2rtk]

That won't go far at all seeing that the use alone has over 331 Millon people.

Well, based on the number of people here I've heard have no interest in taking the vaccine, it might go further than you think. Even some high profile people have said in the media they aren't interested.

 

[Jonfw2]

That won't go far at all seeing that the use alone has over 331 Millon people.

I realize there's no bowl of Cornflakes too big to be pssd on, but this is not accurate. From today's news:

"Based on current projections, Pfizer and BioNTech expect to produce up to 50 million vaccine doses in 2020, and up to 1.3 billion doses in 2021."

 

[Pyotr]

Well, based on the number of people here I've heard have no interest in taking the vaccine, it might go further than you think. Even some high profile people have said in the media they aren't interested.

That’s on them.

As I’ve said before, I’ll be first in line.

 

[mousefan73]

I am literally crying. Watched their CEO on CNBC. Crying like a baby. As an airline employee this is hope.

 

[Jonfw2]

I am literally crying. Watched their CEO on CNBC. Crying like a baby. As an airline employee this is hope.

This is the real deal.

And now Becky Quick on CNBC is crying. WOW.

 

[ronandannette]

That won't go far at all seeing that the use alone has over 331 Millon people.

What’s the point of this comment? There’s no way any vaccine can be rolled out to every person in the entire world at once. Both production and distribution will have to be a process and a process that is repeated in perpetuity based on what we know right now about immunity. Nor is it reasonable to expect that the rest of the world will sit and wait for the US to absorb the lion’s share of early production. There are over 50 countries that already have agreements in place with Pfizer.