But it doesn't do any good to pretend that the end is in sight when the facts don't support that position. All summer we knew there were two ways it could go - either fall/winter would be very, very bad as people started heading back indoors in the temperate majority of the country or it would surprise us all by being less bad than expected, which would have supported the thinking that there were a significant number of undiagnosed cases that would give enough population immunity to constrain spread. I think we know, now, which is coming to pass... and it isn't that "10x as many cases as confirmed" estimate, which would have about a quarter of the country already exposed and presumably immune. The last thing we need is another round of overly-optimistic or outright false messaging, telling people that if they sacrifice Thanksgiving they can still have Christmas or if they give up the holidays this year their kids can have prom and graduation when the reality is that none of those things are likely to be safe until 2022 or later.